Colorado, 2010

Avalanche in Colorado, March 12, 2010

March 12, 2010 · NWS PUB · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A snowmobiler perished in a avalanche in northern Saguache County near Marshall Pass.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

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The toll

Deaths
1
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.

A snowmobiler perished in a avalanche in northern Saguache County near Marshall Pass.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 12, 4:22 AM MST, 7 hours 53 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 12, 4:22 AM MST, 7 hours 53 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
422 AM MST FRI MAR 12 2010

.SHORT TERM...

(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

CURRENTLY...UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH COOL NORTHERLY FLOW PERSISTING OVER COLORADO. HAVE SEEN
JUST ENOUGH MIXING THIS MORNING TO KEEP MIN TEMPS A LITTLE MILDER
THAN FORECAST...AS WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS MANY AREA. BEGINNING
TO THINK RATHER LARGE T/TD SPREAD AT KALS MAY BE WIDE ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG...SO WILL REMOVE MENTION IN THE
GRIDS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. SUPPOSE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IS
STILL POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...MAINLY SOUTH OF
KALS.

TODAY...STILL LOOKS BREEZY TO WINDY EAST OF I-25 AS 700 MB WINDS
REMAIN 40 KNOTS OR HIGHER ALONG THE KS BORDER. FARTHER
WEST...GRADIENT LESSENS AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST...WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO LESS WIND AND A RATHER NICE DAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
GUIDANCE TEMPS SUGGEST A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR KPUB COULD SNEAK ABOVE
60F THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL NUDGE UP MAX TEMP GRID ACCORDINGLY.

TONIGHT...GRADIENT RELAXES AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS...WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND DECREASING WINDS LEADING TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COLDER MINS MOST
AREAS AS MIXING EASES.  --PETERSEN

.LONG TERM...

(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECT A NICE DAY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE
GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEGINNING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DEPARTING THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO TRACK OF THE SYSTEM
SO CONFIDENCE IS GROWING WITH THIS STORM. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. THE 00Z NAM CAME IN PRETTY HOT IN REGARDS TO QPF
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER A QUICK PEAK AT THE 06Z NAM HAS
QPF TOTALS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS/SREF/EC. ALL MODELS DEVELOP
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS BY 18-21Z SUNDAY WITH
15-25 KTS THROUGH 700 MB. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE STORM SYSTEM
WILL ALSO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE PWAT VALUES NEARING A HALF
IN OVER THE PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEW PTS RISING INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S. GFS SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER IN REGARDS TO MOISTURE AND
THEREFORE HAS UNDERDONE QPF. MODELS ALSO PAINTING SURFACE CAPE
VALUES IN THE 200-400 J/KG RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS SO A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMPERATURES ARE WARM WITH
THIS STORM SYSTEM SO EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A
CHANGE TO SNOW BY SUNDAY MORNING AS SOME COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE NATURE...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
DEEPENING UPSLOPE FLOW...AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY SEE SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW WITH THE ADJACENT PLAINS
SEEING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH FLOW TURNING NORTHERLY BY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE BEST
FORCING AND UPSLOPE TO BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WITH PRECIPITATION COMING
TO AN END MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A QUICK WARM UP
FOR MIDWEEK AND DRY CONDITIONS. WENT ON THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S BOTH AFTERNOONS. A FEW GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS HAVE HIGHS APPROACHING 70 WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION BY WEDNESDAY.

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE HEADING INTO THURSDAY. ECMWF BEGINS TO
DROP ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHILE
THE GFS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS. NAEFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES TEND TO FAVOR THE ECMWF AND
WITH THE RECENT STORM TRACK HAVE TRENDED WITH THE ECMWF. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS TO THE WEST...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...

FOG LOOKING LESS LIKELY AT KALS AS T/TD SPREAD REMAINS
RATHER WIDE. SUPPOSE SOME GROUND FOG ALONG/NEAR THE RIO GRANDE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BACK OFF ON VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN THE 12Z TAF. OTHERWISE...VFR ALL AREAS TODAY...WITH
NORTH WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE PLAINS ALONG AND EAST OF
I-25...INCLUDING KPUB AND KCOS...FROM 16Z THROUGH 00Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

10/88
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 12, 11:53 AM MST, 22 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1153 AM MST FRI MAR 12 2010

COZ058>089-093>099-131900-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1153 AM MST FRI MAR 12 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD EAST INTO THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHER
SNOW LEVELS WILL KEEP SNOW CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF WET SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAIN RANGES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND WET MOUNTAIN RANGES...ALONG
WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING SMALL HAIL AND A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THERE ALSO
WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
PLAINS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. RAIN AND SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FOR MOST LOCATIONS BY
MONDAY MORNING.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN STATES BY THURSDAY
WITH SNOW SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

10/88

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 avalanche. Local standard time, as filed.

Avalanche, Western Chaffee County Between 9000 & 11000 Ft

When
March 12, 12:15 PM MST to 12:16 PM MST
Where
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 & 11000 Ft forecast zone
Deaths
1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
Newspaper
Coordinates
38.747, -106.194 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Avalanche, Western Chaffee County Between 9000 & 11000 Ft2010-03-1255MaleOutside/Open AreasDirect

What these are

Avalanche
A mass of snow sliding down a mountainside that caused a death, an injury or damage.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Colorado in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, March 2010

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 222686.