Hail and Damaging Wind in Colorado, June 18, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
300 PM MDT FRI JUN 18 2010

.SHORT TERM...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS JUST A FEW CUMULUS
POPPING UP ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE.  CONVECTIVE TEMP OFF THE ACARS
SOUNDINGS IS NEAR 85F...AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THIS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.  CURRENT LAPS ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 500-1000 J/KG
CAPE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...BUT THESE WILL LOWER AS WE HIT THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS EVAPORATE.  WE STILL
CANT TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM THIS EVENING AS TAIL END OF
UPPER JET MOVES ACROSS WITH WEAK Q-G SUPPORT...BUT AS LOW LEVEL JET
ADVECTS MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT THE MAIN THREAT OF AN ISOLATED STORM WOULD SHIFT THAT
WAY.  WILL KEEP THE MOUNTAINS AND URBAN CORRIDOR DRY FOR NOW.

ON SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES FURTHER WITH CAPES OF
2000-3000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST COLORADO.  A DRY
LINE IS EXPECTED TO PULL UP SOMEWHERE JUST NORTH OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE BY AFTERNOON.  NORTH OF THE DRY LINE...THERE IS SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR AND CONSIDERABLE CIN WHICH SHOULD PREVENT STORM
DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...RIGHT ALONG THE DRY LINE THERE SHOULD BE A
NARROW CORRIDOR WHERE CIN IS MINIMIZED AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON.  GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...IF A
STORM DOES POP THROUGH THE CAP IT MAY BE SEVERE.  OTHER CONCERN
TOMORROW IS DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASING FIRE DANGER OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND PARK COUNTY.  HOWEVER...BOTH WINDS AND FUEL CONDITIONS
ARE MARGINAL SO NO RED FLAG WARNINGS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARM AS A
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE.  THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WITH AN UPPER HIGH RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND TROUGHINESS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS WILL KEEP DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  MODELS SHOW 700 MB
TEMPERATURES OVER COLORADO REMAINING WARMER THAN +16C EACH AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST...IF NOT ALL...AFTERNOON CONVECTION CAPPED.
MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 90S ON
SEVERAL DAYS IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE LATEST INDICATIONS ARE
THAT SOME SORT OF COOL SURGE COULD MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST ON
ABOUT TUESDAY OR WEDNEDSAY.  THIS MAY ENHANCE THE CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER ACTIVITY.  SINCE THIS IS STILL FIVE
DAYS OUT...WILL NOT SPEND TOO MUCH TIME TRYING TO PIN DOWN WHAT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE LIKE.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY EVENTUALLY INCREASE GIVEN THE LACK OF
PRECIPITATION ALLOWING FUELS IN THE MOUNTAINS TO BEGIN DRYING.  FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE STATE OF FUELS IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY.

&&

.AVIATION...DENVER CYCLONE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING
SHIFTING WIND DIRECTIONS TO THE FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS.  KDEN IS
GUSTING OUT OF THE EAST BUT SHOULD SWITCH MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS
CYCLONE MATURES AND PULLS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD 22Z-02Z.  CHANCE OF
STORMS IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...HIGH FLOWS ARE WORKING THEIR WAY DOWN THE SOUTH PLATTE
RIVER TOWARD JULESBURG.  THE RIVER HAS CRESTED AT WELDONA AND
BALZAC...AND IS NOW MOVING DOWNSTREAM THROUGH STERLING AND TOWARD
JULESBURG.  FORECAST LEVELS SUGGEST MORE LOWLAND MEADOW AND FIELD
FLOODING ALONG THIS STRETCH.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 ...FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER IN MORGAN...
    WASHINGTON...LOGAN...AND SEDGWICK COUNTIES...

BARJENBRUCH/KDRBY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1101 AM MDT FRI JUN 18 2010

COZ030>051-191200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1101 AM MDT FRI JUN 18 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS COLORADO.  A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TONIGHT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST COLORADO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  DRY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WILL CONTINUE MOVING WARM TEMPERATURES
AT MID-LEVELS AND A STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.  AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON THE PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 90S EACH
DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

BARJENBRUCH/DANKERS