Hail in Colorado, July 10, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010

.DISCUSSION...
200 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE FRONT RANGE CONTINUES A
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT TOWARD OUR AREA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MERGE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH
A SFC TROUGH. IN ADDITION TO EXPECTATION OF SEVERE WEATHER LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

FOR SUNDAY AREA UNDER SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW THAT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ADJUSTED
TIMING OF POPS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH OVERALL SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

ON MONDAY ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUPPORTING CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE
THUNDERSTORM FORECAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES UPPER 80S EAST...LOW
TO MID 90S ACROSS FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

TUESDAY LOOKING DRY AS UPPER FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY. 850
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING TEMPERATURES OF 100+ ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
2M/MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS AVERAGING A FEW DEGREES COOLER. PARTIAL
MIXING AT 850 STILL SUPPORTS HIGHS AROUND 100. HAVE UPPED HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S WITH THE POSSIBILITY THAT THESE MAY BE
ON THE LOW SIDE. GFS/NAM HANDLING SFC PRESSURE/WIND FORECASTS
DIFFERENTLY WHICH COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...DEEP UPPER LOW JUST NORTH OF THE US BORDER
MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY PUSHING A FRONT INTO/THROUGH THE AREA
SUPPORTING A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE MID 90S. FOR THURSDAY SFC
WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SFC HIGH AS UPPER
FLOW NEARLY ZONAL. 850 TEMPS WOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S...COOLER THAN THE MEX GUIDANCE WHICH IS SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER. USED HPC GUIDANCE AND KNOCKED A FEW DEGREES OFF AS
A START. AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE. FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY UPPER HIGH CENTER EXPECTED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WITH LIGHT STEERING FLOW OVER THE AREA. SFC WINDS
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY WITH SLOWLY WARMING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES...NEAR 90 FRIDAY AND LOW 90S SATURDAY.

07

&&

.AVIATION...
1140 AM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010

FOR 18Z TAFS...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT WORK THERE WAY
ACROSS THE AREA BTWN 22 AND 06Z. ALREADY SEEING SOME WEAK
CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG FRONT NEAR KLIC...WITH FRONT ITSELF
EXTENDING BACK TOWARDS KOGA. WHILE THINK THERE WILL BE STORMS
AROUND WHICH MAY DEVELOP INTO A MCS EARLY IN THE EVENING...LARGE
SPREAD BETWEEN SHORT TERM AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE KEEPS
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO MENTION A PREVAILING TS IN EITHER TAF AT
THIS TIME.

JRM

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1033 AM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111315-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1033 AM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010 /1133 AM CDT SAT JUL 10 2010/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO AROUND GOLFBALL SIZE...DAMAGING
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH AXIS CENTERED ALONG
A WAUNETA TO FLAGLER LINE AFTER 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT) AND MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MORE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
159 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010

COZ091-102015-
KIT CARSON COUNTY-
159 PM MDT SAT JUL 10 2010

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 155 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FLAGLER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND WINDS TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORMS MOVE INTO
THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

&&

LAT...LON 3939 10307 3929 10253 3903 10273 3903 10279
      3922 10316 3927 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 300DEG 24KT 3926 10302

JRM