Avalanche in Colorado, April 24, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
230 PM MDT SAT APR 24 2010

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

ISOLATED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THIS EVENING AS THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE STRONG PACIFIC STORM
RETREATS FARTHER TO THE EAST. CLEARING WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST
DURING THE NIGHT FAVORING STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RELATIVELY
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DO NOT EXPECT FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER VALLEYS WHERE VEGETATION HAS BEGUN TO
BLOOM SO NO HIGHLIGHTS FORTHCOMING WITH THIS PACKAGE.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRUSH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LIGHT LOCALIZED
ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY...BUT PERHAPS NOT
AS MUCH AS EARLIER ANTICIPATED. A RIDGE BUILDS FOR MONDAY BRINGING
DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY.

.LONG-TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTERED OVER THE ERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY NIGHT
MOVING TO NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER BY 12Z TUE. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BREAK DOWN TUE AND SOUTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE.
THIS WILL BRING WARM...DRY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. MEANWHILE A
STRONG UPPER LOW APPROACHES VANCOUVER ISLAND. THIS TIGHTENS GRADIENT
FURTHER TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MOISTURE STARTING TO WORKS ITS WAY INTO
NE UTAH WHERE ISOLD SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE UINTA MTNS. BY
WEDNESDAY OVERALL TROF OVER THE WEST CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
WINDS EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY AND REMAIN OUT OF THE SW AS COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW. SHOWERS WILL BECOME A BIT MORE NUMEROUS
NORTH OF A LINE FROM MOAB/GRAND JUNCTION/GLENWOOD SPRINGS. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES
INTO THE CWA LEADING TO A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF PCPN. GFS A LITTLE
FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND EC SLOWER. THE NATIONAL FOLKS ARE
LEANING MORE TOWARD THE EC SOLUTION BUT AS OF LATE IT SEEMS LIKE
THE EC USUALLY COMES BACK TO THE GFS SOLUTION. SO WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE FOR NOW.

IT APPEARS THE TROF LINE WILL PUSH TO THE EAST THURSDAY BUT A COOL
UNSETTLED NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP
CLOSED LOW SETTLES OVER ERN MT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK BUT
DROP TO BELOW NORMAL AFTER TROF PASSAGE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BRING
LOCALIZED  MVFR CIGS AND VSBY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. SHOWERS REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A DISTURBANCE IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
AREAS OF SNOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG WITH LOCALIZED IFR
CONDITIONS TO LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF KGUC-KMTJ-KRIL-KCAG LINE.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AFTER A RIDGE PUSHES EAST AND BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY FALL BELOW
15% IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BUT SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS MAY NOT REACH 35
MPH. WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE VALLEYS OF SOUTHEAST UTAH AND
SOUTHWEST COLORADO ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE COMBINATION OF LOW RH
AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM....MC
AVIATION.....NL
FIRE WEATHER...JOE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
545 AM MDT SAT APR 24 2010

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-251145-
ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-FLAT TOPS-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GRAND VALLEY-LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-
SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-
545 AM MDT SAT APR 24 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL FALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
COLORADO THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE..DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ARRIVING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

COLTON