Below normal rainfall continued through the month of September across much of Eastern Arkansas. The lack of rainfall expanded severe (D2) drought conditions from just a small portion of East-Central Arkansas to most of Eastern Arkansas.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Below normal rainfall continued through the month of September across much of Eastern Arkansas. The lack of rainfall expanded severe (D2) drought conditions from just a small portion of East-Central Arkansas to most of Eastern Arkansas. The biggest impact from the drought was on agriculture as many crops suffered due to the lack of rainfall. Hydrological concerns started to become an issue by the end of the month as many lake and river levels dropped. Burn bans were issued for most of East Arkansas. A few wildfires occurred as a result of the dry conditions.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 10:52 PM CST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1152 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010/ UPDATE... SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO 24 HOURS AGO ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR...UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS...INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. 9 PM SURFACE DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE TN RIVER... TO THE LOWER 70S OVER NORTHEAST AR. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 70S NEAR THE TN RIVER...TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. MEMPHIS AIRPORT WAS SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER. FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED...WITH MINOR REDUCTIONS IN CLOUD COVER AND DEWPOINTS. NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME. PWB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010/ DISCUSSION... NO MAJOR CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS DETERMINING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LATEST MODELS WERE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES. USED A BLEND WITH NO PREFERENCE FOR ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER. AT 315 PM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A FEW SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR LAWRENCE COUNTY ARKANSAS AS WELL AS NEAR TISHOMINGO COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. A WEAK MID/UPPER LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI. REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT AREAS MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND OVER FAR NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI NEAR CORINTH...BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 7 PM. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN A FEW LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT DID NOT MENTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE...ESPECIALLY SINCE DRY CONDITIONS OCCURRED TODAY. 12Z MAVMOS LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S SEEMED REASONABLE AND WERE ACCEPTED. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND VERY WARM DAY. ADDED A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER RANDOLPH AND LAWRENCE COUNTY ARKANSAS...BUT OTHERWISE THINK MID LEVEL RIDGING AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE EAST WILL LIMIT CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY...MAINLY IN THE 91 TO 95 DEGREE RANGE. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY BELOW 100 DEGREES WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES...20 TO 30 PERCENT NORTH OF I-40 WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE IS FORECAST AND DRY CONDITIONS SOUTH. THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STAY WELL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105 DEGREES AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LATEST MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE SREF MODEL BEING FASTEST AND ECMWF BEING SLOWEST. SLIGHTLY PREFER THE FASTER SREF SOLUTION. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT BE GREAT. ALSO...ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS FORECAST NEAR FRONT. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED NEAR FRONT. KEPT 20 TO 40 PERCENT OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...NEAR 12Z MAVMOS NUMBERS. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST. MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES NORTH OF I-40 ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE COOLEST AIR SINCE MAY ARRIVING TO THE AREA THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE 80S UNDER FULL SUN. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL ALLOW FOR COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS AND GREAT WEATHER FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING SHOULD BE IN THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LABOR DAY AND TUESDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. MBS && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF SET VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME MVFR FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE AT KTUP AFTER 10Z. CU EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 14Z...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TONIGHT...THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO 7-12 KTS BY 15Z. BORGHOFF && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MEM 73 94 74 95 / 0 0 0 10 MKL 66 93 66 94 / 0 0 0 10 JBR 70 93 71 92 / 10 10 10 20 TUP 67 93 67 95 / 10 0 0 0 && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 346 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-011100- ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA- CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER- FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY- ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON- MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT- PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY- ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA- UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 346 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. JAB
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) drought conditions continued across Phillips County.
Severe (D2) drought conditions expanded into Clay County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, September 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 259728, 259729.