Flash Flooding and Debris Flow in Arkansas, June 9 to 11, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
243 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF CONVECTION. MAIN
INFLUENCE WILL BE THE UPPER LOW OVER NE TX AND ITS MOVEMENT OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN.

MORNING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AR LIFTED NORTH AND
WEAKENED. THE MCS THAT WEAKENED OVER EASTERN OK HAD LITTLE IMPACT
OVER NW AR EXCEPT CLOUD COVER. CONVECTION OVER EAST TX CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTH...ASSOCIATED WITH ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LOW...HAS SHOWN SOME WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS NORTH. ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBLE IN THE BOWED SEGMENTS. THE SURFACE FRONT OVER
CENTRAL MO HAS DRIFTED A BIT SOUTH...BUT SHOULD HANG UP OVER
SOUTHERN MO NEXT 24 HRS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL FINE TUNE FIRST PERIOD POPS AT PRESS TIME. SEEING CENTER OF
THE BOWING SEGMENT ROTATING BACK TO EAST CENTRAL TX...WHILE THE
REST LIFTS NORTH. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO GO LIKELY POPS OVER FAR SW
AR LOCATIONS...THEN TAPERING TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE EAST TO
NORTH THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE FEATURE LIFTS NORTH. THEN CONDITIONS SETTLE DOWN
AFTER SUNSET OVER MOST OF AR...EXCEPT IN THE SOUTHWEST WITH SOME
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER FEATURE AND WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...POP CHANCES COME UP TO LIKELY IN THE WEST
BY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW...WHILE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS WILL BE MORE OF AN AFTERNOON
CHANCE WITH HEATING HELPING FUEL CONVECTION. THE BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH ON THURSDAY...
BUT HELP KEEP CHANCES UP A BIT OVER THE NORTH. TEMPS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE A BIT MILDER THAN TODAY. THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS
MOVEMENT NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN OVER WESTERN PARTS OF AR. SOME CONCERN FOR AN AREA
OF HEAVY RAIN AND WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WITH RAIN AMOUNTS OF A FEW INCHES DO MATERIALIZE. THE UPPER
RIDGE DOES BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY WEAKEN THE UPPER LOW A BIT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. MAINLY HOT AND DRY SATURDAY...WITH THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING LOW CONVECTION CHANCES.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MODELS AGREE...FOR THE MOST PART...ON THE OVERALL PATTERN DURING THE
EXTENDED. MOST SOLUTIONS SHOW AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AND GETS ABSORBED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY AND HEADS TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN
HOW QUICKLY THIS UPPER LOW GETS ABSORBED...THE SIGNIFICANCE OF WHICH
IS HOW QUICKLY AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA.

ALL THINGS CONSIDERED...I DID NOT MAKE MANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. CURRENT POPS AND TEMPERATURE FORECASTS ARE ESSENTIALLY
A BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO...WITH MAYBE A SLIGHT NOD TO THE
GFS. SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO BE JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF AR ON SUNDAY
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR NWRN ZONES. THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT
DRIFTING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR A CHANCE
OF PRECIP BOTH DAYS. TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA POTENTIALLY DROPPING BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL VALUES DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES DURING
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     70  87  72  89 /  50  40  30  40
CAMDEN AR         73  90  73  95 /  70  50  30  30
HARRISON AR       68  84  70  86 /  50  40  40  40
HOT SPRINGS AR    73  86  73  91 /  40  50  40  30
LITTLE ROCK   AR  74  89  74  92 /  30  40  30  30
MONTICELLO AR     74  92  74  94 /  50  40  30  30
MOUNT IDA AR      71  84  72  90 /  40  50  40  30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  85  70  87 /  50  40  40  40
NEWPORT AR        72  89  74  89 /  50  40  30  30
PINE BLUFF AR     74  91  75  92 /  40  40  30  30
RUSSELLVILLE AR   72  84  70  91 /  40  50  40  30
SEARCY AR         72  88  72  92 /  40  40  30  30
STUTTGART AR      74  91  74  91 /  30  40  30  30
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...64

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-101000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH EAST
TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL IN SOUTHERN MISSOURI NEAR THE
ARKANSAS BORDER TODAY AND THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH ARKANSAS THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

BY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEARING 100 DEGREES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.
HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD AND ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

51

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
255 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

ARZ052-053-062-066-067-092050-
CALHOUN-CLARK-DALLAS-OUACHITA-PIKE-
255 PM CDT WED JUN 9 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CALHOUN...CLARK...DALLAS...
OUACHITA AND PIKE COUNTIES UNTIL 350 PM CDT...

AT 251 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING ACROSS
HEMPSTEAD...NEVADA AND COLUMBIA COUNTIES. THIS AREA WILL MOVE NORTH
AT 15 MPH AND BE OVER CALHOUN...CLARK...OUACHITA AND PIKE COUNTIES
OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS.

THE STORMS HAVE THE CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. THE HEAVY RAIN
MAY PRODUCE PONDING ON ROADWAYS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

FREQUENT...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE
INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS
AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY.

59