Flood in Arkansas, December 5 to 9, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
544 PM CST SAT DEC 4 2010

.AVIATION...
NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE...AS FRONT HAS
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH LOW CLOUDS AROUND 2500 FEET ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. THESE CLOUDS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE LARGE UPPER
LOW...AND HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOR THE NORTHERN SITES. HAVE
INDICATED SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS FOR OTHER SITES...BUT DO NOT HAVE A
BROKEN DECK. CLOUDS WILL SCATTER OUT FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CST SAT DEC 4 2010/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
20Z SUBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG COLD
FRONT...ALONG A LINE FROM WYNNE...TO DEQUEEN.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.  A SECONDARY BOUNDARY WAS NOTED OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE SUNDAY...AND WILL REINFORCE THE COLDER AIR MASS.

MODEST SHORT WAVE ENERGY...IN AN AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN...WILL
APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST
TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE WHEN
THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES. &&

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER NW FLOW AND BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP TO AR. THE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE IS COLD ENOUGH TO HAVE A MIX FOR A SHORT TIME
BEFORE BECOMING ALL LIQUID. HAVE STAYED WITH A MORE ECMWF SOLUTION
WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT LAST SEVERAL RUNS...WHILE GFS IS A SIMILAR
SOLUTION BUT ITS TIMING IS FASTER AND A LARGER AREA OF WEAK
DYNAMICS.

BOTH MODELS PUSH THE SHORTWAVE TO THE EAST LATER WEDNESDAY...WHILE
THE STRONG EAST COAST TROUGH WEAKENS AND FLATTENS OUT A BIT THE NW
FLOW INTO AR. THURSDAY WILL BE DRY WITH A WARM UP AS THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND A SOUTH FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY AGAIN ENTERS THE PICTURE LATER THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY...WITH VERY LOW MODEL QPF SHOWN. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH BUT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
AREAS OF AR ON FRIDAY...AND WILL KEEP THIS GOING. COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH. INTO SATURDAY...THE FRONT SAGS
INTO AR BUT GETS HUNG UP OVER THE STATE DUE TO A WEAKENED UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S...AND AT THIS TIME ANY PRECIP IS IN
QUESTION. TEMPS WILL START BELOW NORMAL...WITH A WARM UP CLOSER TO
NORMAL VALUES BY FRIDAY...THEN A BIT COOLER SATURDAY DEPENDING ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT MAKES IT.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
404 AM CST SAT DEC 4 2010

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-051100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
404 AM CST SAT DEC 4 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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