Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, December 31, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
652 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

.UPDATE...
HAVE JUST SENT THE FIRST...BUT PROBABLY NOT THE LAST...UPDATE FOR
THE MORNING PACKAGE. INCOMING DATA IS SHOWING THAT SEVERE STORMS
ARE AN INCREASING POSSIBILITY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...AS UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR...AS WELL AS CAPE CONTINUE TO
INCREASE. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...UPPED POPS A CATEGORY IN MOST
PLACES...AND HAVE EVEN INCREASED EXPECTED MAX TEMPS IN SOME SPOTS
DUE TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION OCCURRING.

TO ALL THOSE INTERESTED...WE WILL BE RELEASING A 17Z UPPER AIR
SOUNDING IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010/

AVIATION...

AT 11Z THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOC CONVECTION WAS LOCATED IN EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. BASED ON SFC OBS AND RECENT RADAR TRENDS/LOOPS...IT
APPEARS THE SPEED OF THIS FRONT WILL GIVE TERMINALS ROUGHLY 3HRS
OF -TSRA CONDITIOSN TODAY. AS SUCH I HAVE -TSRA WITH MVFR CIGS AND
GUSTY SFC WINDS OF 20-30KT AT KHRO BETWEEN 15-18Z...AT KBPK...KHOT
AND KLIT BETWEEN 17-20Z...AND FINALLY 18-21Z FOR KPBF AND KLLQ.
TIMING COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH KPBF AND KLLQ AS THERE IS SOME
INDICATION THAT THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT MAKES IT INTO ERN/SERN
ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED BY THE
DAY SHIFT.

BEHIND THE FRONT CIGS WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO VFR LEVELS AND
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO WESTERLY. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS SHOULD
NOT BE TOO STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT SO DO NOT EXPECT GUSTY WEST
WINDS AFTER FROPA.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
FULTON-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
655 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-011015-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
655 AM CST FRI DEC 31 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH ARKANSAS
TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STORMS MAY POSSIBLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND MORE HEATING OCCURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTH AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY COULD BECOME SEVERE. THE CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THE HIGHEST AS THE FRONT NEARS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

DUE TO A LARGE AMOUNT OF WIND ENERGY SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS TURNING WITH HEIGHT...ANY STORMS THAT BECOME SEVERE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

ARKANSAS RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS FOR FUTURE
UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT EASTERN ARKANSAS LATE THIS EVENING. DRIER AND
COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION COULD BE REQUIRED...ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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