High pressure aloft remained anchored across northern Arizona on July 15th, with deep easterly flow across southeast Arizona. A disturbance rotating around the upper high in this easterly flow enhanced storm organization and intensity across central and western Pima county.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
High pressure aloft remained anchored across northern Arizona on July 15th, with deep easterly flow across southeast Arizona. A disturbance rotating around the upper high in this easterly flow enhanced storm organization and intensity across central and western Pima county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 9:15 AM MST, 4 hours 45 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 915 AM MST THU JUL 15 2010 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE EASTERLY FLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AREAS SOUTH OF TUCSON. BOTH DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL. && .DISCUSSION...OVERNIGHT DEBRIS CLOUDINESS HAS SHIFTED WEST OF SELLS LEAVING MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A QUICK WARM UP AFTER ANOTHER VERY WARM OVERNIGHT(THE TUS OVERNIGHT LOW WAS 81 DEGS). MONSOON HIGH CENTER CURRENTLY FRACTURED INTO TWO PIECES ONE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS ROTATING AROUND THESE CENTERS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE HIGHS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO A MORE DOMINANT CENTER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS NORTHWEST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE UNDER THE HIGH ACROSS CHIHUAHUA AND SONORA ON FRIDAY. TODAY AND TONIGHT...THIS MORNINGS TUS SOUNDING WAS SOMEWHAT INFLUENCED BY LEFT OVER DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM CONVECTION OVER SONORA DURING THE NIGHT. AS A RESULT A BIT OF WARMING SHOWS UP BETWEEN 500-300 MB. WE HAVE ALSO SEEN SOME WARMING BELOW 750 MB...WHICH ALONG WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE TODAY WILL LEAD TO WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES. CURRENT FORECAST GOES FOR 105 DEGS TODAY...SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOOTS FOR 107 AND TODAYS HIGH WILL BE DEPENDENT HOW EARLY CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS. 12Z BUF NAM SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE UNSTABLE FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH A CAPE OF 1500 J/KG...MY MODIFIED TUS SOUNDING WITH A HIGH OF 105 DEGS AND DEWPOINT OF 52 DEG YIELDS AROUND 800 J/KG. THE MAIN DETERRENT FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE LIGHT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH...NAM DOES SHOW SOME INCREASED SOUTHEAST FLOW 10-15 KTS...STILL NOT GREAT. OVERALL...EXPECT A VERY SIMILAR DAY AS YESTERDAY MAYBE SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SONORA BORDER AND OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST LESS THAN 10 MPH. CURRENT POPS ARE VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH MY THINKING AND NO MORNING UPDATE WILL BE NEEDED. FRIDAY...A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH OVER SONORA. THE BEST FLOW WILL BE SEEN BETWEEN 5PM-2AM WITH 20-35 KTS OF FLOW BETWEEN 600-500 MB. THIS WILL PROMOTE MUCH BETTER STORM ORGANIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW UPTURN IN POPS(40-60 PCT). && .AVIATION...ISOLD -SHRA/TSRA WITH CLOUD BASES 8-12KFT AGL. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN ABOVE 15KFT AGL. DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH OUTFLOWS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT AN UPSWING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. EVEN THOUGH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL DUE TO THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY VALUES...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. SHOEMAKER WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1241 PM MST THU JUL 15 2010 AZZ019-029>035-161945- NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY- UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION- TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY- 1241 PM MST THU JUL 15 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE TODAY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY APPROACH ONE INCH...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE SENT NORTH AND COULD KEEP ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A DISTURBANCE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH OVER SONORA. THIS STRONGER FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY...EXPECT STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS BOTH DAYS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 151 PM MST THU JUL 15 2010 AZZ032-152130- TOHONO OODHAM NATION AZ- 151 PM MST THU JUL 15 2010 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM MST... AT 142 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES SOUTH OF SELLS...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SELLS...SOUTH KOMELIK... VAMORI...TOPAWA...COWLIC AND ARTESA. THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. LAT...LON 3177 11209 3194 11187 3169 11165 3157 11181 TIME...MOT...LOC 2050Z 137DEG 8KT 3169 11180 CS
The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 153 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:01 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds caused roof damage to six homes in Pisinimo, with two complete roof failures reported, and four roofs partially damaged. Several power poles were damaged by the thunderstorm winds as well, with five communities reporting power outages.
Thunderstorm winds snapped three power poles in half near Catalina Highway and Melpomene Way.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 233643, 240577.