Above average moisture and a thunderstorm complex from Sonora, Mexico helped set up a flash flood event across southwest Cochise County.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
Above average moisture and a thunderstorm complex from Sonora, Mexico helped set up a flash flood event across southwest Cochise County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 7, 2:45 PM MST, 5 hours 25 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 245 PM MST SAT AUG 7 2010 .SYNOPSIS...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING PARTICULARLY FROM TUCSON SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NWD ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AT 2140Z. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NWD ACROSS NRN GREENLEE/ERN COCHISE/SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES...AND PRECIP ECHOES WERE DEVELOPING DURING THE PAST 15-30 MINUTES ACROSS NRN SONORA. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AS WELL AS 07/18Z NAM/GFS...07/20Z RUC13... AND UNIV OF AZ GFS/WRF SOLUTIONS...BELIEVE THE BULK OF PRECIP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS OR INTO THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND WEST OF TUCSON ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES. THEREAFTER...FOCUS OF ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT SOMEWHAT EWD...OR FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA EWD ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN THE CONTINUING FAIRLY HIGH PWATS WILL CONTINUE TO DEPICT SOME THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING. HAVE NOTED THAT 07/18Z NAM MAINTAINS PRECIP INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS SE PINAL COUNTY. THUS THE EVENING SHIFT MAY NEED TO ADJUST THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT APPEARS QUITE MINIMAL...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ACTIVITY TO BE AIDED WITH THE APPROACH OF A REMNANT MCV CURRENTLY ENTERING NWRN SONORA FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA REGION. UPPER TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER W TX TO CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A FAIRLY MOIST GENERALLY SLY FLOW OVER SE AZ SUN. THUS...STILL ANOTHER CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN. THEREAFTER...DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK IN RESPONSE TO DRIER SWLY FLOW ALOFT. STARTING ABOUT MIDWEEK THERE WERE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 07/12Z GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST WITH MOISTURE VERSUS THE DRIER ECMWF. AT THIS TIME APPEARS THAT TUE-WED WILL BE THE PERIOD FOR THE LEAST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. MADE ONLY VERY MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO THE GRIDDED DATA POP/WEATHER FIELDS THUR-SAT. THE UPSHOT...SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THUR-SAT WITH PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS SE PINAL COUNTY AND WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY. MAX TEMPS SUN A FEW DEGS BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND MON-TUE...THEN ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. && .AVIATION...VALID 08/00Z-09/00Z SCT-NUMEROUS TSRA/SHRA THRU 08/06Z THEN PRECIP DECREASING TO ISOLATED COVERAGE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SCT TSRA/SHRA DEVELOPING MAINLY KTUS VICINITY EWD AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AND CONTINUING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD DECKS GENERALLY 10-15K FT AGL THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST TSRA. SURFACE WIND THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY SELY-SWLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. BF WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 955 AM MST SAT AUG 7 2010 AZZ019-029>035-081700- NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY- UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION- TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-COCHISE COUNTY- 955 AM MST SAT AUG 7 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. VERY HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF AN INCH PER HOUR COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A GENERAL DOWNTURN IN THE MONSOON WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 407 PM MST SAT AUG 7 2010 AZZ031-072345- WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AZ- 407 PM MST SAT AUG 7 2010 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM MST... AT 358 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES NORTH OF ORGAN PIPE NATIONAL MONUMENT ALONG HIGHWAY 85...MOVING NORTH AT 5 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...KUAKATCH...GUNSIGHT...AND WHY. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. LAT...LON 3233 11280 3224 11257 3198 11269 3203 11289 TIME...MOT...LOC 2307Z 198DEG 5KT 3209 11276 PYTLAK
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 447 PM MST SAT AUG 7 2010 AZZ031-032-080030- TOHONO OODHAM NATION AZ-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY AZ- 447 PM MST SAT AUG 7 2010 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY...AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE THE TOHONO OODHAM NATION...UNTIL 530 PM MST... AT 442 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A BAND FROM 9 JUST NORTHWEST OF AJO TO 25 MILES EAST OF ORGAN PIPE NATIONAL MONUMENT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...PEA SIZED HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. AREAS AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...AJO...WHY...GUNSIGHT...SANTA CRUZ...AND PISINIMO. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. DO NOT DRIVE INTO ANY FLOODED ROADWAYS. LAT...LON 3251 11276 3200 11220 3179 11254 3250 11317 TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 223DEG 7KT 3248 11298 3189 11238 PYTLAK
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
723 PM MST SAT AUG 07 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 PM HEAVY RAIN 4 SSE SIERRA VISTA 31.50N 110.27W
08/07/2010 M2.00 INCH COCHISE AZ TRAINED SPOTTER
FALLING AT A MEASURED AVERAGE OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR
WITH A MAXIMUM READING OF 6 INCHES PER HOUR.
&&
MINNICKThe Tucson radar (KEMX), 41 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:09 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flood waters flowed across the right lane of Highway 90 north of Huachuca City.
Numerous streets southeast of Sierra Vista were flooded. A spotter report of 2.45 inches of rain was received.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 239810, 239811.