Thunderstorms with heavy rain caused flooding in the Second Mesa area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
Thunderstorms with heavy rain caused flooding in the Second Mesa area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 9:05 PM MST, 4 hours 55 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 905 PM MST SAT JUL 31 2010 .SYNOPSIS...AN EXTREMELY MOIST AIR-MASS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. A SLIGHT DRYING TREND IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... RADAR IMAGERY AT 9 PM SHOWS TWO LARGE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGER NEAR GREASEWOOD SPRINGS WHERE RADAR RAINFALL RATES ARE APPROACHING TWO INCHES PER HOURS. THE SECOND IS SOUTH OF WILLIAMS WHERE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV)HAS DEVELOPED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...WE EXPECT THE GREASEWOOD STORMS TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE EAST. THE MCV SHOULD KEEP STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL AND AN OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM GOING ALONG THE RIM FROM FLAGSTAFF WESTWARD THROUGH WILLIAMS OUT TO SELIGMAN. OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING IS LESS IN COVERAGE AND HOURLY LIGHTNING STRIKES VERSUS FRIDAY EVENING. WE WILL LET THE TODAY FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT PER CURRENT TRENDS. PREV DISCUSSION 233 PM...A VERY MOIST AIR-MASS REMAINS OVER AZ TODAY IN A LARGE-SCALE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. NEARLY SATURATED CONDITIONS WERE EVIDENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER IN THE MORNING SOUNDING. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THIS AIR-MASS MAKE FOR A COMPLICATED PATTERN...INCLUDING AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AZ...A WEAKENING MESOSCALE VORTEX OVER NORTHWEST AZ...AND LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON THE HIGH TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY MOVING TOWARD THE CENTER OF THE VALLEY. THE LITTLE COLORADO VALLEY HAS BEEN QUITE CLEAR SO FAR TODAY...SO THIS AREA WILL LIKELY END UP BEING ACTIVE THIS EVENING AFTER A FULL DAY OF HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR-MASS AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY STILL DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LIKELY SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION CONTINUING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FOR SUNDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL PATTERN...SO ANOTHER WET DAY IS IN STORE. DURING NEXT WORK WEEK...MODELS INDICATE A GRADUALLY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD BRING SOME DRYING ALOFT...LIKELY BEGINNING AROUND MIDWEEK. THE MAIN EFFECTS LOOK LIKE A DECREASE TO MORE NORMAL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...A STRONGER DIURNAL TREND TO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DJO && .AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...WIDELY SCT SHRA/TSRA ACROSS ALL NRN AZ OVERNIGHT AND THEN INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE AFT 16Z SUNDAY. VERY HEAVY RAIN...AREAS MVFR...LOCAL IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS PSBL WITH PRECIP. ALSO...WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS OBSCURING TERRAIN AWAY FROM PRECIP WILL CONTINUE DUE TO VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST ZONES UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY MORNING. PUBLIC.......DL AVIATION.....DL VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 946 AM MST SAT JUL 31 2010 AZZ004>018-037>040-010700- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 946 AM MST SAT JUL 31 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE EXTREMELY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE IN AND NEAR YAVAPAI COUNTY THIS MORNING...THEN LATE IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NUMEROUS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR ALL NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST ZONES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A POTENTIAL DRYING TREND BEGINNING BY MIDWEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
813 PM MST SAT JUL 31 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0639 PM FLOOD 9 NNW LUPTON 35.48N 109.11W
07/31/2010 APACHE AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT
WATER FLOWING OVER HIGHWAY 12 NORTH OF LUPTON...NEAR
OAK SPRINGS. TRAFFIC STOPPED.
&&
EVENT NUMBER FGZ1000169
BAKPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
853 PM MST SAT JUL 31 2010
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0845 PM FLASH FLOOD 7 S KLAGETOH 35.41N 109.53W
07/31/2010 APACHE AZ LAW ENFORCEMENT
NAVAJO NATION PD REPORTS WATER FROM WIDE RUIN WASH
ACROSS HWY 191 AT MM 390. TRAFFIC STOPPED
&&
EVENT NUMBER FGZ1000170
041The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 151 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:00 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain and flooding caused road closures along Highway 264 and Highway 87.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, August 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 258279.