Blizzard in Alaska, November 15, 2010

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
418 AM AKST MON NOV 15 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS ACROSS THE KOTZEBUE SOUND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING IS NOW SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND THE
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT THAT THE ENERGY WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF AK BY TUE MORNING. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP MID-LATE WEEK AS A STRONG RIDGE
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS WITH UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO
BE FOUND NEAR THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN
ALEUTIANS.

SURFACE...SURFACE PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY RISE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TODAY WITH A SPRAWLING 1050 MB HIGH EXPECTED BY TUE PM FROM
THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA NORTHEAST AND INTO THE CENTRAL YUKON.  LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SEA OF OKHOTSK WILL MOVE INLAND AND WEAKEN IN
EASTERN RUSSIA TONIGHT AND RE-DEVELOP TO THE EAST OF THE NEW
SIBERIAN ISLANDS ON TUE.

INTERIOR...AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN GULF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM ABOUT FORT
YUKON-DELTA JUNCTION-DENALI NP WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL SQUEEZE OUT ALL THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE TODAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED ACROSS THE
WESTERN INTERIOR WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING SCATTERED IN THE
FAIRBANKS AREA. SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN AK RANGE AND UPPER TANANA VALLEY WITH SOME UPSLOPE
ADDING TO THE SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN AK RANGE.
CLEARING WILL FOLLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR TONIGHT AND
SPREAD INTO THE FAIRBANKS AREA BY TUE MORNING. PARTS OF THE
EASTERN AK RANGE WILL PROBABLY NOT CLEAR OUT UNTIL LATE TUE NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN MUCH COLDER...AND IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA
WILL LIKELY FALL DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS THE CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO
CLEARING. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT IN MOST AREAS
WITH LOWS OF 20 TO 35 BELOW. THE SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL BE SHORT
LIVED WITH TEMPS QUICKLY REBOUNDING TO ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

NORTH SLOPE...AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR IT WILL CAUSE THE WIND ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST TO TURN INTO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE.  THE STRONGEST WIND INITIALLY WILL
BE ALONG THE EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST WHERE THE GRADIENT WILL BE
ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE.  THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW IN THE BARTER ISLAND AREA BY TONIGHT...BUT
WITH NO REAL ORGANIZED AREAS OF SNOW UNLIKELY TO SEVERELY LOWER
VSBYS.  THE MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT WILL COME TUE NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW WEST OF WRANGEL ISLAND MOVES ACROSS THE ARCTIC
OCEAN SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE AND COMBINES WITH THE STRONG
RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE
COAST THAT WILL COMBINE WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION SNOW TO POSSIBLY
PRODUCE AREAS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.  WILL HOLD OFF ON A BLIZZARD
WATCH FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS TO MAINLY BE A 4TH THROUGH 5TH PERIOD
EVENT AND THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO ISSUE SOME WATCHES LATER TODAY.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE EXPECTED
IMPACTS. THE OTHER THING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONG WIND TO BREAK UP THE ICE ALONG THE
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST AND POSSIBLY PUSH SOME ICE ASHORE.

WEST COAST...FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER ALONG THE WEST COAST FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AND RIDGE ALOFT BUILD INTO THE
AREA.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN ST LAWRENCE WATERS AND
THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA
COAST.  AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST FROM
KIVALINA TO POINT HOPE WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE AS THERE IS OPEN
WATER. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS MORNING FROM 3
PM TUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON FOR AREAS ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA NORTH
OF CAPE KRUSENSTERN WHERE THERE IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THAT
THERE WILL BE HIGH SURF. SHISHMAREF LOOKS TO ESCAPE THE WORST OF
THE HIGH SURF...BUT SOME BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE ON THE LAGOON
SIDE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE AREA OF HIGH SURF...BUT
THIS FAR OUT IN THE GAME WENT WITH THE AREA THAT WOULD APPEAR TO
BE THE MOST VULNERABLE. AN UPDATED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED FOR THE OTHER AREAS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE HIGH SURF. THE NEXT
CONCERN WILL BE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FROM THE
BERING STRAIT NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS IS STILL A LITTLE TOO
FAR OUT FOR A WATCH.

MEDIUM RANGE...STARTS WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK IN PLACE THURSDAY THAT
WILL LIKELY HOLD INTO THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE
WOULD EXPECT THAT THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN ONLY VERY SLOWLY LATE
NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLOWLY MOVES EAST IT WILL OPEN UP THE DOOR FOR MOISTURE TO WORK
AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE ALONG PARTS OF THE WEST COAST
NEXT WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MUCH OF NORTHERN
AK MAY TURN UNSETTLED.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

CB NOV 10

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
412 AM AKST MON NOV 15 2010

AKZ201>206-152300-
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST-NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST-
CENTRAL BEAUFORT SEA COAST-EASTERN BEAUFORT SEA COAST-
NORTHWESTERN BROOKS RANGE-NORTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE-
INCLUDING...WAINWRIGHT...ATQASUK...POINT LAY...CAPE LISBURNE...
BARROW...ALAKTAK...PITT POINT...NULAVIK...NUIQSUT...PRUDHOE BAY...
ALPINE...DEADHORSE...KUPARUK...KAKTOVIK...FLAXMAN ISLAND...
SINGILUK...UMIAT...ANAKTUVUK PASS...ATIGUN PASS...
GALBRAITH LAKE...SAGWON...FRANKLIN BLUFFS
412 AM AKST MON NOV 15 2010

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE RUSSIAN COAST ON TUESDAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH OF BARROW BY MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
INTENSE...IT WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO PRODUCE VERY STRONG WINDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE ARCTIC TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WIND
SPEEDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH IN MOST AREAS. THE STRONG WIND WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS WHERE THERE IS A LOT OF LOOSE SNOW ON THE GROUND. SNOW WILL
ALSO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY BE WHEN THE
STRONG WIND COMBINES WITH THE FALLING SNOW.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME AREAS WILL HAVE BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW
WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PUSH OF MUCH MILDER AIR...WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF BLOWING SNOW BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

CB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
956 AM AKST MON NOV 15 2010

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     SNOW             2 NE HEALY              63.83N 148.96W
11/15/2010  M8.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR REPORT

&&

MALINGOWSKI