Blizzard and High Wind in Alaska, March 1 to 3, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AKST MON MAR 1 2010

.MODEL DISCUSSION...INITIALIZATION OF SYNOPTIC PRESSURE FIELDS AND
FORECAST TREND THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THIS WEAK ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. CONFIDENCE ON PROGRESSION OF STORM CURRENTLY OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS IS FAIRLY HIGH. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING WITH SECOND
STORM FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND CURRENT CENTER AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS
GOOD. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE COMPLEX IN THE GULF IN THE
SHORT TERM AS A SERIES OF WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE
GULF MOVE NORTH.

.UPPER LEVELS...
.500 MB...TROUGH OVER THE GULF SPLITS AS NORTHERN PORTION LIFTS NORTH
TUESDAY AND CUT-OFF CENTER MOVES SE AND WEAKENS. TIGHT CONCENTRIC
CENTER OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BROADENS AND WEAKENS AS IT MOVES TO
OVER BRISTOL BAY ON WED AFTERNOON. THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS
RELATIVELY FLAT SO WILL SEE BRIEF WARMING OF TEMPS ALOFT AHEAD OF
THIS CENTER BEFORE COOLING AGAIN BY MID-WEEK. A SHORT WAVE
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES EAST OF JAPAN WED AS COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH
ACROSS RUSSIA. THE TROUGH INTENSIFIES AS IT TRACKS EAST WITH A CENTER
DEVELOPING AND MOVING TO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THU EVENING. THE RIDGE
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS A GREATER AMPLITUDE AND PUSHES WARM AIR OVER
MUCH OF SW ALASKA THU.

.SURFACE...
.SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF...WEAKENING LOW COMPLEX OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL CONTINUE NORTH MOVEMENT THROUGH TUE. 970S CENTER NEAR KODIAK
WILL BECOME STATIONARY AS SECONDARY CENTER TO SE MOVES TO THE NW GULF
OF ALASKA TUE. CENTER WILL CONTINUE NW DRIFT AND WEAKENING TREND.
EXPECT WILL SEE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENTS ALONG THE NORTH GULF
AND SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH GULF
COAST ALONG WITH STRONG GAP WINDS OVER ACROSS TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE
VALLEY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD
THROUGH TUE AND COOL SLIGHTLY WED WITH COOLING 850 MB TEMPS. MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO BE CAUGHT BY THE COAST AND E/SE EXPOSURES
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT AND TUE. GENERALLY RAIN ALONG THE
COAST WITH SNOW OR MIXED INLAND. STRONG LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS WEAKENS AND ENDS UP IN THE CENTRAL GULF WED AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES UNSETTLE WEATHER OVER THE AREA.

.ALEUTIANS/BERING SEA...LOWER 960S LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
THIS AFTERNOON TRACK TO UNIMAK PASS TUE AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA WED AFTERNOON. STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS CENTER OVER THE ALEUTIANS. HIGH WIND WARNING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH THIS CENTER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUE MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ON THE WEST AND SW QUADS OF
LOW WITH COLD ADVECTION. WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN FROM THE WEST TUE.
BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CENTER AS IT
TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE CHAIN...HOWEVER EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE
RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THOUGH ARE LIKELY IN THE
PRIBILOFS TONIGHT AS FRONT IN ADVANCE OF LOW CENTER BRINGS SNOW AND
WINDS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
PRIBILOFS THROUGH LATE TUE AFTERNOON.  NEXT BIG STORM MOVES TO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THU AFTERNOON AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS AND
ADVERSE WEATHER.

.SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WIND CHILL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL DELTA. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH AND TEMPS WILL MODERATE A LITTLE TONIGHT. SNOW OVER BRISTOL
BAY WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH ALEUTIAN STORM BRINGS IN MOISTURE TUE. AS STORM
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF WED...COLD AIR IS DRAWN INTO SW
ALASKA ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. SO WIND CHILLS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BECOME A CONCERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 187. BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 195.
MARINE...HURRICANE FORCE 172 175. STORMS 155 170 176. GALES 120 125
150 171 185 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC MAR 10