On the afternoon of 12/29 arctic air was over the northern Panhandle. A strong warm front was approaching from the south associated with as storm center all the way over at the eastern Aleutians.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
On the afternoon of 12/29 arctic air was over the northern Panhandle. A strong warm front was approaching from the south associated with as storm center all the way over at the eastern Aleutians. warm over running snow continued into the morning of the 31st.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 30, 5:57 AM AKST, 3 hours 3 minutes earlier.
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
557 AM AKST THU DEC 30 2010
.SHORT TERM...APPROCHING WARM FRONT FROM THE GULF HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME DECENT SNOWFALLS TO THE NORTHERN INNER
CHANNELS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH WILL
FALL IN A CERTAIN AREA WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW LONG IT TAKES
FOR THE WARM AIR TO MAKE IT INTO THE INNER CHANNELS AND CHANGE
THE SNOW TO RAIN. THE AIR MASS THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
PANHANDLE IS NOT VERY COLD. PETERSBURG AND WRANGELL ARE SITTING
AT 25 AND 24 DEGREES RESPECTIVELY AND HAINES IS SITTING AT
25 DEGREES. THOSE ARE THE COLDEST PLACES AT SEA LEVEL IN THE
PANHANDLE CURRENTLY. OTHER PLACES, MAINLY ALONG THE OUTER COAST
ARE ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING. RADAR AND SATELLITE ARE SHOWING THAT
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS APPROACHING THE OUTER COAST.
THINKING AT THE MOMENT IS THAT GIVEN THE LOW DEW POINTS MOST
AREAS IN THE PANHANDLE THE PRECIP WILL START OUT AS SNOW. AFTER
THAT HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE WILL START TO MOISTEN UP AND THE
WARMER AIR WILL START INFILTRATING THE PANHANDLE. SNOW WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE OUTER COAST TODAY. PLACES LIKE GUSTAVUS,
HOONAH, ANGOON AND AREAS FARTHER SOUTH WILL WAIT UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE THE CHANGE OVER THERE. THESE
AREAS MAY SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW. JUNEAU, HAINES AND SKAGWAY
WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT LONGER. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE WINTER STORM
WATCHES THAT WERE UP HAVE BEEN CHANGED TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF HAINES AND SKAGWAY. THE WATCH THAT
WAS UP FOR JUNEAU WAS CHANGED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS THE
TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM AIR IS SUCH THAT IT WILL COME
SOON ENOUGH TO AVOID THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.
WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD NOT BE TOO MUCH OF A PROBLEM. THE
NORTHERN OUTER COASTAL MARINE ZONES WILL BE NOTCHING UP TO GALE
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A BIT OF A BARRIER JET SETS UP ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. OTHER WISE MOST AREAS IN THE OUTSIDE WATERS
WILL BE BLOWING SMALL CRAFT. AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER COAST
WILL ALSO SEE SOME BREEZY CONDITION AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
TONIGHT. ALSO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE PANHANDLE IS
CAUSING SMALL CRAFT WINDS IN THE E-W CHANNELS TODAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
MODEL AGREEMENT WAS NOT THAT GOOD IN SOME INSTANCES. THE 0Z NAM
DID NOT INITIALIZE THE FRONT IN THE GULF VERY WELL. IT WAS TOO
SLOW AND IT WAS WAY TO COLD. WHILE SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS WERE
NOT AS BAD OFF AS THE NAM MOST WERE ALSO A BIT TOO SLOW WITH THE
FRONT AS WELL COMPARED TO THE BUOY DATA. THE EC APPEARED TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE FEATURE AND WAS USED AS THE PRIMARY MODEL
FOR UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TODAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR.
&&
.LONG TERM...MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST COMES
AT THE VERY BEGINNING IN DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO RAIN FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE PUBLIC ZONES CURRENTLY UNDER
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. BASED ON A CLOSE LOOK AT
1000-850 MB THICKNESSES...850 MB TEMPERATURES...LOW LEVEL WIND
TRAJECTORIES IN THE OVERNIGHT MODEL RUNS OF THE
NAM...GFS...ECMWF...AND GEM...BELIEVE THE CHANGE OVER WILL OCCUR
AROUND 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING. STILL HAVE SNOW IN THE EXTENDED RANGE
FORECAST...BUT ACCUMULATION RATES WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT CONTINUING ANY OF THE EXISTING ADVISORIES. LAST TO WARM
UP AND CHANGE OVER TO PREDOMINANTLY RAIN WILL BE THE NORTHERN
PUBLIC ZONES NORTH OF ICY STRAIT.
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THE EXTENDED RANGE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND MUCH DEPENDS ON FORECAST SNOW LEVELS AND
THE VARIATIONS OF 500 TO 700 FEET ELEVATION WILL MAKE THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN AND AN ADDITIONAL 5 INCHES OF SNOW ON
FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT...BELIEVE THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY MAY GET A
BRIEF BREAK FRIDAY EARLY MORNING...BUT AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY OR
EXTENSION OF THE EXISTING WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY FROM FRIDAY
MID DAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
USED A BLEND OF NAM AND EC FOR PRESSURE AND WIND FOR FRIDAY AND
PRIMARILY GFS FOR SATURDAY. USED NAM FOR POP AND QPF WITH NO
MODIFICATIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.
.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ025.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST FRIDAY FOR AKZ019.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM AKST FRIDAY
FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ051-052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-021-022-033>036-041>043.
&&
EAL/FRITSCH4 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
Skagway customs measured 9 inches of new snowfall by 0700 on the 31st. The heaviest snow fell during the night of the 30th.
Pelican measured 8.2 inches of new snow at 0800 AKST on 12/30. Pelican received an additional 2.6 inches by 0800 on 12/31. Elfin Cove measured 5.8 inches on the 30th.
Lena Point measured 5.0 inches of new snowfall at 2000 AKST on 12/30. The spotter at mile 17 measured an additional 5.0 inches at 0600 on 12/31. Storm totals ranged from 5.5 to 10 inches overnight on 12/30-31.
WSO Yakutat measured 6.4 inches of new snow on 12/29 followed by 4.3 inches on 12/30. Snow changed to rain on the evening of 12/30.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2010Every state in 2010This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, December 2010
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 275604, 275610, 275616, 275617.