High Wind in Alaska, August 16 to 18, 2010

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AKDT MON AUG 16 2010

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
.UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN SIBERIA AND THE
EASTERN BERING SEA AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE
YUKON TERRITORY HAD MAINTAINED STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA WHICH CONTINUES TO FEED MOIST AIR INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
THE GULF OF ALASKA.
.AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE LOW NEAR CAPE NEWENHAM CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN ALASKA. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE WESTERN GULF IS MOVING NORTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL MOVE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA
TUESDAY AND SPREAD INTO WESTERN CANADA WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE
WILL BE PUSHED INTO ALBERTA BY THE TROUGH. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE BERING SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW NEAR CAPE
NEWENHAM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN INTERIOR TUESDAY THEN WEAKEN
OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA WEDNESDAY. THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE COOK
INLET AND THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST
OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN BERING TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER FRONT OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL SPREAD TO THE REST OF
THE REGION TONIGHT THEN BECOME SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND
THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.

SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN BECOME SHOWERS TUESDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO THE COAST DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE WEDNESDAY.

BERING SEA...RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN CANADA THURSDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA WILL
MOVE INTO MAINLAND ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. WEATHER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA WILL SLOW IMPROVE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL BERING THURSDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR TURNAGAIN ARM THIS EVENING.
MARINE...GALES 130 132 160 165 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM AUG 10