Drought in Wisconsin, September 22 to 30, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
342 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SYSTEM TO
SEND DISTURBANCES NORTH INTO WESTERN LAKES. APPEARS STRONGEST NOW
ROTATING AROUND BASE OF LOW. MUCH OF THIS ENERGY/MOISTURE EXPECTED
TO BE SHUNTED EAST OF AREA AS WAVE IN MAIN WESTERLIES OVER CENTRAL
CANADA TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT
THE SURFACE...WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM TO SHIFT EAST. ABOVE WILL
BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR MORE PCPN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FORCING
RATHER WEAK...WITH SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WITH/AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROVIDING DYNAMICS OVER AREA. SIG MOISTURE
IN PLACE WITH PWS AOA 1.5 IN. GIVEN LIMITED DYNAMICS WILL STAY
WITH LOW END POPS THROUGH PD. MODELS INDICATE SFC BASED CAPES
BETWEEN 200 AND 400 TODAY...THOUGH QUESTION WHAT EFFECTS CLOUDS
WILL PLAY WITH THAT. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS FOR THUNDER ATTM GIVEN
FEW LIGHTENING STRIKES CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER NORTHEAST IA.

MAIN CONCERNS THIS MORNING IS FOG. FEW SITES CURRENTLY AT 1/4 MILE
OR LESS...MAINLY FOX VALLEY EAST. PREVIOUS SHIFT BACKED OFF SOME
ON WIDESPREAD DENSE WORDING...AND APPEARS GOOD CALL AS MID/HIGH
CLOUDS KEEPING THINGS IN CHECK. BELIEVE CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE A BIT FURTHER WITH SUNRISE...THOUGH DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT
IN REGARDS TO THE UPPER AIR FLOW PATTERN THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...AND
DEPICT A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS CANADA...WHILE SLOWLY MIGRATING
A CUTOFF LOW TO THE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.  THE HIGHEST
UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE TIMING THIS CUTOFF LOW EASTWARD...AND THE
12Z ECMWF LOOKS A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST WITH ITS COOL FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY COMPARED TO THE 00Z
GFS/00Z NAM/00Z CANADIAN.  SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THOSE MODEL
SOLUTIONS INSTEAD OF THE 12Z ECMWF.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...WHILE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES.  THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL RESIDE ALONG A COOL FRONT
ARCING FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT NORTH OR NORTHWEST WINDS AT H850
SHOULD BRING IN ENOUGH DRY AIR TO KEEP PRECIP CONFINED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST.  MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE
STATE THURSDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH THE 850MB THETAE AXIS (AT LEAST
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE).  HOWEVER...WILL STILL HAVE A
DRY EAST WIND TO KEEP PRECIP AT BAY.  SO WILL STICK WITH THE
INHERITED DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE CUTTING IT CLOSE WITH
OUR SW COUNTIES.  925MB TEMPS 18-20C SHOULD EQUATE TO HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.  LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE CUTOFF LOW WILL NUDGE ITS WAY EASTWARD
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY ON FRIDAY...AS IT FEELS THE
INFLUENCE FROM A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE.  ALTHOUGH WILL STILL
HAVE AN EAST WIND AT THE SURFACE...STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS DO MOVE
INTO THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS SOME MODEST 700-300MB
-DIVQ.  WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ON FRIDAY...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT WHEN FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW.  DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...WET CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO
SATURDAY.  WILL MAKE SOME LATE MINUTE CHANGES BASED ON THE NEW 00Z
ECMWF RUN BUT I THINK INHERITED POP GRIDS LOOK JUSTIFIED. THE UPPER
LOW AND ANY SURFACE LOW PULL AWAY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL TAPER THE
POP GRIDS FROM WEST TO EAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK A BIT INTO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ON FRIDAY WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
MOSTLY IN THE 60S ON SATURDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING...MAINLY EASTERN
SITES...IN FOG WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING. EXPECT CLOUDS MUCH OF
DAY WITH FRONT OVER MN SHIFTING EAST...THOUGH EXPECT CIGS IN VFR
RANGE...EXCEPTION MVFR IN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL AGAIN LEAD TO PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

TE/MPC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
420 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-230930-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
420 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

LMZ521-522-541>543-230930-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
420 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.