Drought in Wisconsin, June 1 to 30, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
959 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

.UPDATE...SHOWERS ARE STILL OCCURRING ACROSS THE TWIN PORTS ARE
AND WERE MOVING SOUTHEAST. CLEARING SKIES ARE ACROSS WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE QUESTION IS HOW QUICK THE
CLEARING WILL COME IN AND THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES. CURRENT TEMP
FORECAST LOOK GOOD SO WILL KEEP CURRENT FCST. WILL ADJUST POPS AND
WEATHER BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009/

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR
THIS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND FROST/NO FROST OVERNIGHT.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
AXIS NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE ND/MN BORDER AND TRAILING BACK INTO
CENTRAL SODAK. AS SHORT WAVE APPROACHES AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE
/CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA PER LATEST WATER
VAPOR LOOP/...LIFT INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD
RESULT IN CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS...AS IS OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ATTM. MOISTURE RETURN NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
ANTICIPATED UP INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES AREAS...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND DAYTIME HEATING TO RESULT IN AN AXIS OF WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY. SFC TRIPLE POINT WITH STRONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AT SFC WARM FRONT...AND APPROACHING TROUGH WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH
THE AREA. WITH 6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS OF 60 TO 70KT...POSSIBILITY
STILL EXISTS FOR SOME STRONG STORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MEANWHILE...RAIN SHOWERS/CLOUDS/MARINE LAYER HAVE MADE FOR A VERY
CHILLY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH
EVEN A COUPLE REPORTS OF SNOW/SLEET RECEIVED THIS MORNING...NORTH OF
TWO HARBORS...AND /UP/ REPORTED IN THE AWOS AT KCKC.  AS TROUGH
PUSHES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...DECENT DRY PUSH COMES IN AFTER
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TRICKY FROST
FORECAST...AS GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING AN MVFR DECK ADVECTING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN FA WITH LOW LEVEL NE FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING
TROUGH. IF LOW STRATUS DECK DOES ADVECT OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...FROST WILL BE MORE UNLIKELY...BUT IF CLEARING OCCURS WITH
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...FROST WILL BE MORE LIKELY. HAVE EXPANDED AREA
OF FROST MENTION TONIGHT...AND WILL PASS ON CONCERNS FOR POSSIBLE
NEED OF AN ADVISORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MN
COUNTIES...MAINLY NORTH OF THE TWIN PORTS.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE MONDAY WILL KEEP SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A POSITIVELY
TILTED CANADIAN TROUGH WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXISTS TO WARRANT MENTIONS OF THUNDER IN
THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION
FOR WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...AND HAVE HAD INTERNAL RUN TO
RUN DIFFERENCES AS WELL. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS
LOWER THAN AVERAGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL...AND A FEW OF THE PERIODS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW
NORMAL. A FRONT WILL AFFECT THE CWA ON THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. THE BIG
PROBLEM THROUGH THE EXTENDED...IS HOW THE MODELS HANDLE AN UPPER
TROUGH/LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW CLOSED
AS IT DROPS INTO THE MANITOBA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO REGION...WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND OPENS THE LOW UP. WE HAVE CHANCE
POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AVIATION...LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN ALONG WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD BE QUITE STRONG...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING SOUTHWEST AREAS SUCH AS
KBRD/KPWC/KXVG/KAIT. OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS AND CEILINGS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE RAIN. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MVFR CEILINGS THAT WRAP
AROUND THE LOW LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY EAST OF A
KCDD TO KDLH LINE...INCLUDING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY...WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST BY MORNING.

&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  58  37  60 /  40  10  20  10
INL  36  65  38  60 /  10  10  30  10
BRD  44  69  43  64 /  30  10  10  10
HYR  42  66  38  67 /  50  10  10  20
ASX  42  62  38  60 /  50   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

STEWART

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
346 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-011030-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
346 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...RESIDENTS OF CASS...CROW
WING...AITKIN...AND PINE COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR CONDITIONS. A FEW
STRONG STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THESE COUNTIES AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES. HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

LSZ121-140>148-011030-
BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI-GRAND PORTAGE TO GRAND MARAIS MN-
GRAND MARAIS TO TACONITE HARBOR MN-
TACONITE HARBOR TO SILVER BAY HARBOR MN-
SILVER BAY HARBOR TO TWO HARBORS MN-TWO HARBORS TO DULUTH MN-
DULUTH MN TO PORT WING WI-PORT WING TO SAND ISLAND WI-
SAND ISLAND TO BAYFIELD WI-OAK POINT TO SAXON HARBOR WI-
346 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HENRY

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)