Heavy Snow in Wisconsin, February 2 to 3, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
247 AM CST MON FEB 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW
POTENTIAL FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...CENTERED ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS LOCATION HAS
RESULTED IN A STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE...THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND THE BORDERLAND. LEADING EDGE
OF THE COLD AIR IS NOW ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN FA THIS EARLY
MORNING. AS UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND BECOME MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED...MAIN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE PIVOTS NEARLY
IN PLACE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS PRESENTS UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW
AMOUNTS...BOTH SYNOPTICALLY TODAY ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD/BORDERLAND...AND LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED ALL ALONG SHORES
(BOTH NORTH AND SOUTH INCLUDED) OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. 2-D FGEN SHOWS STRONG 925MB FGEN SIGNATURE ALONG THE
INVERTED TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE LOW THROUGH THIS MORNING. HAVE
SEEN SOME VSBYS LOWER THAT ONE MILE...INCLUDING AT KINL AND KCDD
EARLIER THIS MORNING. HAVE RAISED SNOW AMOUNTS AND POPS TO
CATEGORICAL ACCORDINGLY THROUGH THIS MORNING.

AS MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTS ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS BECOME LIKELY TO DEVELOP. THE INVERTED TROUGH
LINE/CONVERGENCE ZONE PIVOTS MORE PARALLEL TO THE NORTH SHORE.
LATEST NAM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY HAS PICKED UP ON LES BAND
DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTH SHORE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH MIGRATES
SLOWLY SOUTH TO THE HEAD OF THE LAKE AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY...AND
THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE DIMINISHES. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND SET UP DO SUPPORT THIS POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS. CONCERN IS THAT A SLOW LES BAND MAY DROP SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IF EXPECTED MIGRATION AND MOVEMENT OF BANDS DOES NOT
OCCUR...OR IS SLOW. HAVE RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY AND ADDED SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO FORECAST ATTM. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY BOTH
THE MATERIALIZATION OF ANY LES BANDS...AS WELL AS THE MOVEMENT.
HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED/EXPANDED. ACROSS THE SOUTH
SHORE...A NORTHEASTERLY FETCH THROUGH TONIGHT LOOK TO BRING
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS TO DOUGLAS/BAYFIELD COUNTIES IN ADDITION TO
THE GOGEBIC RANGE AREA. HAVE INCREASES POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE
AS WELL.

LES POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
DUE TO THE CONTINUED NORTHERLY FETCH AND H85 TEMPS AROUND -20C. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE THE GOGEBIC RANGE AREA HOWEVER...AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIRMASS BUILD IN FROM THE WEST.

.EXTENDED...LES SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING TUESDAY EVENING ALONG
THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN NW WI. THE NW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO THE
W AND AROUND 06Z WEDNESDAY WAA WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THIS AREA.
HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL POP AFTER 06Z. A PATTERN FAVORING WARMER
AIR WILL ENVELOPE THE FA WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORT WAVE LIFTING NE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL AFFECT THE FA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE WEATHER GRID ON
SATURDAY AS THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR MAYBE EVEN SOME FREEZING
RAIN MIXING IN WITH LIGHT SNOW DEPENDING ON THE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILE. SINCE SFC TEMPS WILL BE MILD...ADDED A MENTION OF LIGHT
RAIN TO THE LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT SEEMS THAT VFR WILL
PREVAIL SW OF A KVWU/KDLH/KHYR LINE. ON THE FLIP SIDE...MVFR IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN SHSN...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS UPPER LEVEL SHORT ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH THE
AREA. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL SUNSET.

&&

POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  11  -4   7  -3 /  70  60  10   0
INL   2 -16   4  -9 /  60  20  10   0
BRD   7 -10   8  -2 /  20  10  10   0
HYR  14  -3  10  -8 /  60  30  20   0
ASX  16  -1   9  -7 /  80  60  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 12 PM CST TUESDAY
     FOR ASHLAND-IRON.

LILES/GSF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1040 AM CST MON FEB 2 2009

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-031130-
KOOCHICHING-NORTHERN ST. LOUIS-NORTHERN COOK/NORTHERN LAKE-
NORTHERN ITASCA-CENTRAL ST. LOUIS-SOUTHERN LAKE/LAKESHORE-
SOUTHERN COOK/LAKESHORE-NORTHERN CASS-SOUTHERN ITASCA-
SOUTHERN CASS-CROW WING-NORTHERN AITKIN-SOUTHERN AITKIN-
CARLTON/SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS-PINE-DOUGLAS-BAYFIELD-ASHLAND-IRON-
BURNETT-WASHBURN-SAWYER-PRICE-
1040 AM CST MON FEB 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE IS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW
IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE INLAND AREAS OF LAKE
AND COOK COUNTY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS
EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE ARE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR DOUGLAS AND
BAYFIELD COUNTY UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY...AND FOR ASHLAND AND IRON
COUNTIES UNTIL NOON ON TUESDAY. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5
INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES ACROSS
THE GOGEBIC RANGE.

FOR MORE DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE DULUTH NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON TUESDAY
FOR ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5
INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES
ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. FOR MORE DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE
WINTER WEATHER PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE DULUTH NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

BERDES

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESS:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DULUTH (ALL LOWER CASE)

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
901 AM CST MON FEB 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 AM     SNOW             HURLEY                  46.44N 90.20W
02/02/2009  M1.0 INCH        IRON               WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0800 AM     SNOW             4 W CLAM LAKE           44.96N 95.45W
02/02/2009  M0.7 INCH        CHIPPEWA           MN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM     SNOW             5 NW WASHBURN           46.72N 90.97W
02/02/2009  M1.1 INCH        BAYFIELD           WI   CO-OP OBSERVER

0800 AM     SNOW             PARK FALLS              45.93N 90.45W
02/02/2009  M0.4 INCH        PRICE              WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DONOFRIO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
921 AM CST MON FEB 02 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     SNOW             LITTLE MARAIS           47.41N 91.11W
02/02/2009  M5.4 INCH        LAKE               MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DONOFRIO