Hail and Damaging Winds in West Virginia, May 30 to 31, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
230 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEXT COLD MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS ALONG FRONT THAT WASHED OUT ACROSS CNTRL WV TODAY HAVE NOT
COMPLETELY GONE AWAY...WITH NEW SHOWERS ALREADY FORMING ALONG THIS
AXIS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA.  EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND IN ADVANCE OF WEAK
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM W KY...ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE
CWA...THEN WORKING E THIS EVENING.

MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON PW VALUES AND INSTABILITY...WITH THE
JUICIEST AIR TO THE W.  FREEZING LEVEL AND STRENGTH OF FLOW CAN
STILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND IN AND NEAR NE KY
WHERE SLT RISK IS.  USED NEWLY WRITTEN EDIT AREA FROM MODEL
PARAMETER TOOL TO HELP WITH PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF HIGHEST POPS AND
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION HANGING ON
A LITTLE LONGER IN THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE N.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BRINGING ABOUT CLEARING.

GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH A BLEND
WHERE DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN A HTS-CRW-EKN AXIS SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE SE U.S. REMAINS IN CONTROL. THIS WILL CREATE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME AFTERNOON CU...AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE EARLY IN THE EXTENDED AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST...AND FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NAM CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH THE FRONT NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND THE FORECAST MORE TOWARDS THE GFS WHICH IS SLOWER
WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE...BRINGING THE FRONT INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...AND THEN SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH
OF THE REGION.  THIS WILL BRING A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALTHOUGH
HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS IN THE
FORECAST...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE CWA AND OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...AS DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THE END OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MORNING LOW STRATUS IN THE MOUNTAINS HAVE GIVEN WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS ALL AROUND.  A LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE W WILL MOVE E
ALONG THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT THAT WASHED OUT ACROSS CNTRL WV THIS
MORNING.

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO FORM AROUND THE HTS TRI-STATE AREA AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHERE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO
FORM.

BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MVFR OR WORSE LOW CLOUD ARE LIKELY TO FORM
ESPECIALLY IN PLACES WHERE IT RAINS THIS EVENING.  FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...HAVE CONTINUED MVFR AT EKN.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN THE
MOUNTAINS FOR A LITTLE LONGER.

MORNING LOW STRATUS IS LIKELY TO AFFECT MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING
BUT...BY MIDDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL ABOUND.

AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WX EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
504 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

OHZ066-067-075-076-083>086-VAZ003-004-WVZ006>011-013>020-024>040-046-
047-312115-
PERRY-MORGAN-ATHENS-WASHINGTON-JACKSON OH-VINTON-MEIGS-GALLIA-
DICKENSON-BUCHANAN-CABELL-MASON-JACKSON WV-WOOD-PLEASANTS-TYLER-
LINCOLN-PUTNAM-KANAWHA-ROANE-WIRT-CALHOUN-RITCHIE-DODDRIDGE-MINGO-
LOGAN-BOONE-CLAY-BRAXTON-GILMER-LEWIS-HARRISON-TAYLOR-MCDOWELL-
WYOMING-RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-WEBSTER-UPSHUR-BARBOUR-POCAHONTAS-
RANDOLPH-
504 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST OHIO...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ087-WVZ005-312115-
GREENUP-CARTER-BOYD-LAWRENCE KY-LAWRENCE OH-WAYNE-
504 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...SOUTHEAST OHIO AND WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
507 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

WVZ033-034-302145-
MCDOWELL-WYOMING-
507 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL MCDOWELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING COUNTIES...

AT 505 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR HERNDON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20
MPH.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR HERNDON AROUND 515 PM.

PLEASE REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...877-633-6772...WHEN YOU CAN DO SO SAFELY.

08