Heavy Snow in Washington, January 4 to 5, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
320 PM PST SUN JAN 4 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING RAIN AND HEAVY
MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION OVER MANY LOWLAND AREAS WILL
START AS A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OR AS SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN
BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE
SHOWERY. ANOTHER POTENT AND WET STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...AS WELL AS RISING SNOW LEVELS...TO THE AREA MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...CERTAIN AREAS HAVE BECOME WINDY ALREADY BUT OTHERS
REMAIN DEAD CALM. KBLI CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTH WIND. IT APPEARS
THAT SOME AREAS SIMPLY WILL NOT GET ANY WIND OR SCOURING ACTION THIS
EVENING BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE MORE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES. FOR NOW WILL LIMIT THESE TO A RING OF
ZONES MAINLY AWAY FROM THE WATER. COULD GET 1-3 INCHES IN THESE
ZONES...HIGHER NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. ZONES NEAR PUGET SOUND AND THE
OCEAN AND THE STRAIT WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME SNOW AS WELL...BUT THE
WIND HAS KICKED IN IN THESE ZONES AND ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS
THAN AN INCH. IT IS A PLAN ANYWAY.

SNOW OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL RAIN LATE THIS
EVENING IN SOME ZONES...AFTER MIDNIGHT IN OTHERS. THE SNOW LEVEL
WILL RISE TO 3000 FEET OR SO LATE TONIGHT THEN FALL BACK TO 2000
FEET MONDAY. THE MOUNTAINS WILL GET POUNDED. THERE WILL BE HEAVY
SNOW IN BOTH THE CASCADES AND OLYMPICS THAT WILL LAST INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING 2 OR 3 FEET OF NEW SNOW.

IT WILL BE A WET TIME ELSEWHERE...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE FIRST
SIX OR SEVEN PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. BREEZY OR WINDY AT TIMES TOO.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST...THERE IS
NO THREAT OF LOWLAND SNOW ON THE HORIZON AFTER TONIGHT. BURKE

.LONG TERM...HAVE HAD LITTLE TIME TO LOOK AT THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER
ALL THE RAIN IS GOING TO HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE RIVERS STARTING ABOUT
MIDWEEK. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION BELOW. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE SOME RIDGE BUILDING AND DRYING STARTING ABOUT THURSDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE MODIFIED THE FORECAST TO
JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIME. BURKE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A POTENT AND VERY WET STORM IS
ANTICIPATED TO BRING RISING SNOW LEVELS AND A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE CWA ABOUT MIDWEEK. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO HANG UP OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONG 850 MB FLOW WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS
THE SW FACING SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ON THE COAST AND IN THE CASCADES DURING
THE TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH 8 TO 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE ON THE SW FACING SLOPES OF THE CASCADES. THIS AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL WOULD DRIVE MANY AREA RIVERS ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. THIS
SITUATION BEARS CLOSE MONITORING.

&&

.AVIATION...RAIN...SNOW AND MIXED WITH CIGS 1500-2000 FT STARTING
ALONG COAST AT 23Z...EXPECTED ARRIVAL PUGET SOUND REGION AROUND
00-01Z. CEILINGS LOWERING TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 1000 TO 2000 FEET AND LOCAL VISIBILITIES 2-4SM
WITH MODERATE RAIN RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT 03Z-09Z. BACK EDGE OF
FRONT REACHING THE COAST AROUND 06Z...KSEA 09Z...CASCADES 12Z. WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WINDS AT 5000 FEET 00Z-06Z TONIGHT SOUTHERLY 40 TO 60 KNOTS.

KSEA...CEILING DOWN TO 5000 FEET OVC WITH SCT DECK 2000 FEET AT 23Z.
EXPECT CIGS TO CONTINUE TO LOWER DOWN TO 1000 TO 2000 FEET WITH
POSSIBLE VISIBILITY 2-4SM IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN AND SNOW 06Z-10Z.
SOUTHERLY WIND 6 TO 8 KNOTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AFTER 00Z. WINDS AT 5000 FEET STILL FORECAST SOUTHERLY 40-60
KNOTS 00Z-09Z. PRANGE

&&

.MARINE...GALE WARNINGS POSTED FOR ALL ZONES AS A STRONG FRONT MOVED
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INLAND
TONIGHT. BACK EDGE OF FRONT TIMED TO REACH THE COAST AROUND 06Z AND
MOVE THROUGH THE INLAND WATERS AROUND 09Z. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR MOST ZONES. GALE FORCE WESTERLIES
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE STRAIT AND EAST ENTRANCE LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS EASING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GALES
POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. PRANGE

&&

.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WA...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE OLYMPICS AND CASCADES.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY...WESTERN SKAGIT
COUNTY...HOOD CANAL...SOUTHWEST INTERIOR...AND LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY.
WIND ADVISORY NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND WESTERN STRAIT.
 PZ...GALE WARNING ALL WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH GRAYS HARBOR BAR.

WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
550 PM PST SUN JAN 04 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     SNOW             12 E SHELTON            47.21N 122.85W
01/04/2009  M1.0 INCH        MASON              WA   PUBLIC

            SNOWING HARD.

0530 PM     SNOW             4 WNW MAGNOLIA BEACH    47.39N 122.56W
01/04/2009  M1.0 INCH        PIERCE             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SNOWING HARD.

0530 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 WNW ANACORTES         48.50N 122.66W
01/04/2009  M56.00 MPH       SKAGIT             WA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGHEST GUST 56 MPH AND MANY GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. SUSTAINED
            WINDS 25-30 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

0547 PM     SNOW             PORT ORCHARD            47.53N 122.64W
01/04/2009  E2.0 INCH        KITSAP             WA   NEWSPAPER

            2 INCHES IN PORT ORCHARD. 1 INCH IN BREMERTON AND
            SILVERDALE. SNOWING HARD.

&&

DDAMICO