Heavy Rain in Texas, July 22, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
944 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THIS MORNING BASED ON SAT/RADAR TRENDS. THE MCS ACROSS THE
WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS /CENTER OF CIRCULATION ROUGHLY IN NRN LEA
COUNTY NEW MEXICO/ IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SE...INDICATING A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...IR SAT SHOWS CLOUD-TOP
WARMING PAST HOUR AND RAINFALL RATES UNDER THE HEAVIEST CORES AS
INDICATED BY THE WEST TEXAS MESONET SITE AT DENVER CITY ARE ABOUT
AN INCH PER HOUR...AND THESE ARE CONFINED TO A RATHER THIN LINE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SRN SPLNS. THROUGH 12 NOON...IT APPEARS
THAT LOCATIONS ACROSS YOAKUM...TERRY AND POSSIBLY LYNN COUNTIES
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR RECEIVING ABOUT AN INCH TO TWO INCHES
OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
PROBLEMS DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR BUT AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT
THAN FLOOD ADVISORY-TYPE CONDITIONS FOR POTENTIAL TROUBLE SPOTS...
ALONG US-380 FOR EXAMPLE.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE NUDGED HIGHS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY AS
EXPECT THAT THE THICK CLOUD SHIELD WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE. ALSO
STILL EXPECTED A FAIRLY QUITE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
ATMOSPHERE STILL BE FAIRLY STABILIZED BEHIND THE MCS. EXCEPTION
WILL BE ACROSS THE SW ZONES WHERE LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE/LIFT MAY
CONTINUE NORTH OF BROAD FRONTAL ZONE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        81  61  88  63  96 /  60  30  20  10  10
TULIA         82  62  85  63  95 /  40  30  20  10  10
PLAINVIEW     81  62  84  64  94 /  40  30  20  10  10
LEVELLAND     80  63  85  66  96 /  70  40  30  10  10
LUBBOCK       81  64  85  66  95 /  50  40  30  10  10
DENVER CITY   79  63  87  66  96 /  90  50  30  10  10
BROWNFIELD    80  63  85  66  95 /  80  50  30  10  10
CHILDRESS     87  66  91  67  98 /  30  20  20  10  10
SPUR          86  66  87  68  97 /  40  40  30  10  10
ASPERMONT     87  67  89  68  97 /  40  40  30  10   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
437 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

TXZ021>044-230945-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
437 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

CONVECTIVE
A LARGE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND PERHAPS THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS TODAY BRINGING HEAVY
RAIN AND EXCESSIVE STORM RUNOFF TO A FEW AREAS. A FEW STRONGER
STORMS MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS COULD CONTAIN LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE HAIL AND WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LOW SINCE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.