Drought in Texas, December 1 to 21, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
920 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

.DISCUSSION...CLD SHIELD WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAINS TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF DEEP SOUTH TX THRU THE OVRNGT. UPPER LLVL LOW
CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS NW MEXICO AND WILL WILL SLIDE INTO WEST
TX DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS. S/W ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO BE EJECTED
THRU THE SW FLOW ALOFT OVER DEEP SOUTH TX THRU THE DAYTIME HRS
TUE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVRNGT
ACROSS THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL ALLOW FOR RAINFALL AND OVERCAST
SKIES TO PREVAIL THRU TUE. COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THRU
THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES OVRNGT MAY ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
FROM THIS EVENINGS READINGS. DON/T EXPECT MUCH OF A RECOVERY ON
TUE AS DAYTIME HIGHS WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER FROM THE
EARLY MRNG READINGS. AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS NEWD ON WED...THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND MUCH IMPROVED CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED. MADE A COUPLE OF MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE EVENING
UPDATE...BUT ESSENTIALLY THE FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...A WIDE RANGE OF CEILINGS EXIST ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
THIS EVENING WITH BRO AND HRL CHECKING IN FROM 6 TO 9 HUNDRED FEET
WHILE MFE REPORTS A CEILING AROUND 2 KFT. IR SATL INDICATES A
PRETTY WELL DEVELOPED MID LEVEL CLD SHIELD OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST
MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TX MOVING OUT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED 500 MB LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN MEX. THE 500 MB LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
NOT CLEAR THROUGH THE LOWER RGV UNTIL LATE TOMORROW AND ACCORDING
THIS SHOULD NOT ALLOW MUCH IMPROVEMENT OF BOTH THE CEILINGS AND
VSBYS AROUND THE REGION UNTIL LATE IN THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...THE WINDS ACROSS THE BAY WATERS HAVE SLACKENED AND
ACCORDINGLY HAVE ALLOWED THE SCA FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE TO EXPIRE.
HOWEVER WINDS AND SEAS OFFSHORE IN THE GULF REMAIN ROUGH WITH
BUOY020 CHECKING IN THIS EVENING WITH SWELLS AROUND 7 FT AND
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE GULF CONDITIONS ARE
FAIRLY MARGINAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT BOTH THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF WANT TO SPIN UP A FAIRLY STRONG MARINE LOW CLOSE TO THE TX
COASTLINE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW. THE FORMATION OF THIS FEATURE
SHOULD QUICKLY TIGHTEN UP THE PGF ACROSS THE LOWER TX COASTAL AREAS
REBUILDING THE WINDS AND SEAS. SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST WORDING OTHER THAN TO EXTEND THE SCA FOR
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 150 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009/...METEOROLOGICAL
WINTER STARTS TOMORROW AND THE TEMPS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS WILL
REFLECT THAT. COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING AND TEMPS HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE 50S. NOT EXPECTING MUCH FLUCTUATION IN DIURNAL
TRENDS THROUGH TUESDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS
FAIRLY STEADY. AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE HAS BEEN OVERRUNNING THE
SHALLOW COOL AIR ALLOWING FOR LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO OCCUR. MID
LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NW OLD MEX IS KICKING OUT
PIECES OF ENERGY/SHORT WAVES AHEAD OF IT HELPING ALLOW FOR
STEADIER AND AT TIMES HEAVIER RAINFALL TODAY.

MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE AT THE SAME
TIME CYCLOGENESIS GETS UNDERWAY OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST.
COMBINATION OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS AND CYCLOGENESIS
AT THE SURFACE WILL HELP MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE THE BEST LIFT WILL OCCUR.
ECMWF/GFS/GEM ALL FORECAST THE LOW TO PULL AWAY DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP FROM WEST TO EAST. I ENDED
THE PRECIP THIS FORECAST PACKAGE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS ISSUANCES
AS DRIER AIR SHOULD BECOME ENTRAINED ACROSS THE AREA FASTER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDS IN THE MID AND LONG RANGE. 12Z
GFS WANTS TO BRING ANOTHER BURST OF COLD AIR AND RAIN BY FRIDAY.
HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS RUN OF THE GFS AS IT/S THE FIRST RUN TO HINT
AT BEING SO STRONG AND WET. MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS AND BOOST POPS
IN LATER FORECAST ISSUANCES IF MORE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY EXISTS.

AVIATION...RA AND DZ CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH CIGS
FROM 005 AROUND KBRO TO 030 FARTHER NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE
DEPARTING FRONT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BECOME MORE INTENSE
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SFC WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TURN
QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHWEST BTWN 4 AND 5KFT. IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK TOMORROW.

MARINE...AT 1PM BUOY020 REPORTED NORTH WINDS AT 21G25KT AND SEAS
8.5 FEET. WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30 AS THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE THROUGH 7PM
AND FOR THE GULF WATERS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN COMING TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BRIEFLY TOMORROW MORNING...BUT A SECONDARY SURGE OF
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING CONDITIONS BACK TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS MAY NOT FALL BELOW CRITERIA LONG ENOUGH
TO EXPIRE BEFORE NEW ADVISORIES WOULD GO INTO EFFECT. BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...REMAINING NEAR THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD. MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...BUT ARE STILL TOO DISSIMILAR TO
GET AN ACCURATE PICTURE ON HOW STRONG IT WOULD BE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  52  58  49  68 / 100  90  40  10
BROWNSVILLE          51  54  46  68 / 100  90  40  10
HARLINGEN            51  54  47  69 / 100  90  40  10
MCALLEN              52  54  45  69 / 100  90  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      50  53  44  68 / 100  90  20  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   56  61  53  67 / 100  90  40  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...VIPOND-57
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...SPEECE-60

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
910 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-011200-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
MANSFIELD TX-
LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
910 PM CST MON NOV 30 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS GULF WATERS
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ON THE BEACHES OF SOUTH PADRE ISLAND AND BOCA CHICA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ALONG THE LOWER
TEXAS COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...THROUGH
SUNDAY DUE TO CONTINUED STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. A MODERATE TO
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES IS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPEECE