Hail in Texas, April 2, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
506 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FOR AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX.

&&
.MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS STILL RUNNING NEAR 19 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS...SCA CONTINUES THERE. AS FRONT NEARS EXPECT
WINDS TO SWING TO SW AND WSW. AFTER FROPA EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE UTCW TO WARRANT SCA ALL WATERS. SCA WILL LIKELY NEED
EXTENDING FOR THE 20-60 NM WATERS THIS EVENING. GRADIENT RELAXES
AFTER 10 PM AND HIGH QUICKLY TRAVERSES AND LULL IN WINDS EXPECTED.
BUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SE FLOW REDEVELOPS AND STARTS TO STRENGTHEN
IN RESPONSE TO THE LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY SYSTEM.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
CIGS ALL OVER THE PLACE FROM 300-2000. LOWER CIGS NORTH WITH SOME
SPOTTY IMPROVEMENT ELSEWHERE AS LL MOISTURE DEEPENS AND LLJ LIFTS.
LLWS NEAR 40 KNOTS SHOWING UP TAFS AND AREA RADARS SUPPORTING THIS
ATTM. TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA INTO CLL AROUND 1030Z/UTS 1130Z/CXO 1230Z.
NOT AS CONFIDENT THAT TSRA WILL MAKE IT INTO IAH/HOU BUT SHRA
SHOULD. WILL HOLD OFF ON SVR TSRA IN TERMINALS UNTIL THEY GET
CLOSER AND WILL NOW TAF THESE SHOULD THEY BECOME NECESSARY. WESTERLY
WINDS MAY PLAY HAVOC WITH IAH/HOU APPROACHES AS WINDS INCREASE TO
10-18 KNOTS THEN BECOME MORE NORTHWEST. THIS AFTERNOON NW WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 17-20 KNOTS AREAWIDE WITH GUSTS NEAR 25...WILL LIKELY
MAKE THESE CHANGES TO PREVAILING WINDS IN CURRENT PACKAGE. CIGS
SHOULD ALSO IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY AFTER 13-15Z WINDOW WITH FROPA.
VFR BY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. 45 &&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG CONDITIONS LOOKING LIKELY WITH THE DEWPOINT DROP AND STRONG
WEST TO NORTH WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. AREAS NEAR
THE COAST SHOULD GET AS DRY GIVEN THE FLOW BUT STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO
RAISE THE FLAG.
45

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY WATCHING A LINE OF STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR STORMS APPROACH-
ING THE AREA FROM THE NW. BUT HAVE NOTICED THAT THE ACTIVITY DOES
APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT NEAR THE BORDERS OF OUR CWA.
OF CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED ERODING OF THE CAP (WITH SOME HEATING
THIS MORNING) SHOULD THE LINE SLOWS DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE TX.
OTHERWISE THE VERTICAL SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL FOR SVR. WILL GO WITH
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NRN ZONES FOR THIS MORNING...TAPERING DOWN-
WARD FOR THE COASTAL ZONES.

LOOKING AHEAD...WE MAY GET A SLIGHTLY LESS ACTIVE RE-RUN OF STORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DEVELOPS/MOVES ACROSS THE CNTL
PLAINS AS OPPOSED TO THE SRN PLAINS WITH THIS CURRENT ONE. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW...WE MAY SEE A BIT
OF LIGHT/WAA TYPE PCPN LATE SAT. ATTM STILL LIKE THE GOING POPS OF
20%. A FEW CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR THE LONG RANGE AS MODELS BACK
OFF THE CURRENT PATTERN (OF FAST MOVING COLD FRONTS) OF LATE AS SE
TX STAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE FOR THE EARLY PART
OF NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUN COULD
KEEP US DRY INTO THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      73  45  76  53  81 /  50   0   0   0  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              77  47  78  54  79 /  40   0   0   0  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  56  70  64  73 /  30   0   0   0  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...
     BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...
     GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...
     MADISON...MATAGORDA...MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
     TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA
     BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...45

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
937 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-021200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
937 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
BRENHAM TO KATY TO FREEPORT. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL...WITH A LESSER THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE PRIMARY
TIME FRAME FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM 5 AM THROUGH
10 AM THURSDAY MORNING.

A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS MIDDAY THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COMBINATION
OF GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES...AND LOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RESULT IN HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS FROM 10 AM THROUGH 7 PM THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SIX...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.