Flash Flood and Hail in Arkansas, April 2, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
632 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

.AVIATION...
EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS TODAY AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
IN THE MORNING HOURS...AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL PICK UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH STRONGER GUSTS DURING
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST
LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS ALSO TO DROP OFF AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRES WAS LOCATED WELL E OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MRNG. THE NEXT
STORM SYS TO AFFECT TO THE AREA WAS TAKING SHAPE OVR SWRN OK EARLY
THIS MRNG. LOW LVL MOISTURE WAS MAKING IT/S WAY NWD ACRS THE SRN
HALF OF AR ATTM...WITH LOW CLOUDS SPREADING NWD. CONVECTION WAS
NOTED OVR CNTRL TX WHERE A SHRTWV WAS LIFTING NEWD. EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONT EXPANDING IN COVERAGE LATER THIS MRNG AS THE STORM
SYS APCHS.

THE MODELS RMN IN DECENT AGREEMENT THIS MRNG WITH THE FCST TRACK OF
THE SFC LOW...BRINGING THE SYS IN W-CNTRL AR ARND MIDDAY AND
SHIFTING IT NE OF AR BY THIS EVENING. SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO BCM
WIDESPREAD ACRS MUCH OF THE FA AS THE MRNG PROGRESSES...WITH LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS AS A DVLPG WARM FNT MOVES SLOLY NWD.

THE FOCUS BY THIS AFTN WL BE THE CHCS OF SVR STORMS AS THE SFC LOW
AND ASSOCD CDFNT PUSH THRU THE REGION. IT STILL APPEARS THAT PARTS
OF E-CNTRL AND SERN AR /VCNTY OF THE MS RVR/ WL BE BRIEFLY IN THE
WARM SECTOR PRIOR TO FROPA THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION AND PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVR THE FA...THE LACK OF INSTABILITY
MAY LIMIT THE CHCS OF ORGANIZED SVR STORMS. WITH PLENTY OF WIND
ENERGY...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLD TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY OVR ERN AR.

THE STORM SYS WL SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...WITH RAIN CHCS
COMING TO AN END. GUSTY WINDS WL BE COMMON DURG THE AFTN/EVENING
HRS...SO WL KEEP THE LAKE WIND ADVY IN PLACE. DAY SHIFT WL HAVE TO
MONITOR WIND SPEEDS IN CASE A WIND ADVY IS NEEDED.

HIGH PRES WL BLD INTO THE REGION FOR FRI AND SAT. WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR IS SET TO RETURN BY SAT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EWD AND ANOTHER
STORM SYS DVLPS IN THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE LOW WL PASS N OF AR SAT NGT
AND SUN...WITH AND ASSOCD CDFNT FCST TO MOVE THRU THE FA BY MIDDAY
SUN.

SCTD SHRA/TSRA WL ACCOMPANY THE FNT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER AIR.
CYCLONIC FLOW WL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN PLACE ACRS AR SUN AND SUN
NGT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SPRINKLES OVR NRN AREAS AS WELL. TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ABT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BLW NORMAL. SOME OF THE VALLEYS
OF NRN AND WRN COULD SEE TEMPS APCH 32F LATE SUN NGT.

LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTER FROPA THIS WEEKEND...EXPECT A DRAMATIC COOL DOWN. COOLEST
TEMPS SEEM TO BE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WHERE TEMPS COULD HOVER
NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE EARLY TUESDAY. BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN. THIS WILL HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO ROLL IN LATER IN THE WEEK. GFS HAS A MUCH FASTER
PROGRESSION WITH THE UPPER LOW...BRINGING IT INTO THE PLAINS STATES
BY WEDNESDAY. ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER...SO HAVE TRAILED BACK POPS TO A
SLIGHT CATEGORY FOR NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     64  40  63  40 / 100  30  10  10
CAMDEN AR         70  40  71  45 /  80  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       59  34  62  41 / 100  20  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  39  68  45 /  80  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  66  42  67  45 /  90  20  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     70  44  69  46 /  90  20  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      63  36  66  43 /  80  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  61  37  63  41 / 100  30  10  10
NEWPORT AR        66  42  64  41 / 100  30  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     69  43  66  46 /  90  20  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  36  66  40 /  90  20  10  10
SEARCY AR         65  43  65  42 /  90  20  10  10
STUTTGART AR      67  44  65  46 /  90  20  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-
CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-
HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-
POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN
BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT THU APR 2 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AND OVERSPREAD THE NATURAL
STATE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS EASTWARD ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WITH PLENTY OF WIND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH STORM...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE REGION.

WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL BE COMMON STATEWIDE THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH ARKANSAS. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER A LARGE
PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A
NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...THE CHANCES OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME.

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM WILL USHER COLDER AIR
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. PARTS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. READINGS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
TOWARD THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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