Wildfire and High Wind in Texas, April 1 to 2, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1015 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009

.UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED UPDATED PRODUCTS FOR WIND ADVISORY THAT IS NOW IN
EFFECT. ALREADY SEEING SOME WIND GUSTS ACROSS ERN NM APPROACH 55
MPH WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. ACTUAL FRONT IS STILL A BIT
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE BUT SHOULD MAKE RAPID
PROGRESS SOUTH AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF
NORTHEAST NM. ALSO COULD BE SEEING SOME LOCALLY ENHANCED GUSTS AS
RADAR DOES SHOW MID-LEVEL RETURNS THAT ARE LIKELY PRODUCING VIRGA
THANKS TO THE VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE. REST OF GRIDS/FCST FOR
TONIGHT IN GOOD SHAPE.

JORDAN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009/

AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL AFFECT THE
TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENTLY A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE WEST AND WEST-
NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BEFORE MIDNIGHT AT KCDS AND JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT
AT KLBB. WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE
FRONT MAINLY FROM KPVW-KCDS NORTHWARD. MVFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
TOMORROW MORNING AT KCDS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED AT KLBB.
WINDS WILL DECREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
EAST OF THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009/

SHORT TERM...
BROAD SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO LOW END WIND ADVISORY LEVELS WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS IN
ADVANCE...AND WILL ISSUE A SHORT-TERM WIND ADVISORY VALID UNTIL NEAR
SUNSET. A VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT WAS SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHERN COLORADO...AND SHOULD BE
APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES BY 9 OR 10 PM THIS EVENING...IF
NOT SLIGHTLY EARLIER.

FORECAST PRESSURE RISES SUPPORT ONSET OF WIND SPEEDS AGAIN CLOSE TO
WIND ADVISORY LEVELS AS FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA EARLY IN THE NIGHT.
CYCLONE WINDING UP AS IT PASSES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND WILL BE IN
POSITION FOR STRONG WINDS ON BACK-SIDE OF STORM SWEEPING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH EASTERN ZONES IN PARTICULAR EARLY THURSDAY. ANYWAY...WE ARE
RETAINING THE EARLIER WIND ADVISORY VALID UNTIL MID OR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING. SYSTEM SHOULD SPIN FAR ENOUGH OFF TO THE EAST LATE THURSDAY
FOR RELAXING WINDS THEN.

SYNOPTIC LIFT IN ADVANCE THIS EVENING LEADING TO THICKENING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS BUT VERY DRY BELOW. OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LIMITED TO STRONG VORTICITY LOBE LATE IN THE EVENING INTO
THEN NORTHWEST...AND PERHAPS WRAP-AROUND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT AND VERY EARLY THURSDAY. STORM
SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND THUS LIMIT MOISTURE POTENTIAL. FEW
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LOW SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES.
MCQUEEN

LONG TERM...
PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED IS ON A STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS
REGION.

THE STORM SYSTEM PASSING TONIGHT WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY THURSDAY EVENING...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE SLIDING ACROSS WEST TEXAS. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM AND BREEZY S/SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS A LEE LOW DEEPENS
ACROSS SE COLORADO. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND BACK
ABOVE NORMAL TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. BY SATURDAY...THE POTENT
STORM SYSTEM WILL EMERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH A
STOUT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG WESTERLY WIND FIELDS ALOFT
WORKING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL GIVEN DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TENDING TO CANCEL OUT
HEIGHT/THICKNESS FALLS. CONCERNING THE WINDS...APPEARS AT LEAST
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY OCCUR...THOUGH HIGH WIND WARNING
CRITERIA /SUSTAINED AT 40 MPH AND/OR GUSTS TO 58 MPH/ COULD OCCUR.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP MIXING TO OR ABOVE 600 MB DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH A PROGGED 600-700 MB LAYER WIND MAX OF 60 KT
RACING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...DECREASING
TO 45-50 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
POSSIBLE HIGH WIND WATCH IF TRENDS CONTINUE. STRONG WINDS AND WARM
AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT /SEE BELOW FIRE WEATHER SECTION/. DID ALSO ADD
BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE CAPROCK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING STORM BY
EARLY SUNDAY AND THIS WILL KNOCK READINGS BACK BELOW AVERAGE TO
CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE PARTS OF NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY NEXT WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WINDS INCREASING WEST TO EAST AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON...NOW WITH
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WILL RETAIN THE EARLIER RED FLAG
WARNING UNTIL 10 PM. CONCERN ABOUT WIND SPEEDS AND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT FOR ANY ON-GOING FIRES. THIS COULD REQUIRE
AN EXTENSION OF RED FLAG WARNING. STAY TUNED. MCQUEEN

LOW END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS AT THE 20FT LEVEL INCREASE
TO AROUND 20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP BELOW 15 PERCENT.
HOWEVER...A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS SUSTAINED WESTERLY 20FT WINDS INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO
30 MPH OR HIGHER AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND IMPROVED HUMIDITIES SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        31  60  33  76  43 /  30  10   0   0  10
TULIA         33  60  33  76  45 /  40  10   0   0   0
PLAINVIEW     35  61  35  78  46 /  30  10   0   0   0
LEVELLAND     36  63  35  80  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
LUBBOCK       38  63  37  80  49 /  20  10   0   0   0
DENVER CITY   39  65  35  80  46 /  10   0   0   0   0
BROWNFIELD    41  64  37  80  48 /  10   0   0   0   0
CHILDRESS     42  59  37  78  53 /  40  10   0   0   0
SPUR          41  64  36  78  51 /  20  10   0   0   0
ASPERMONT     48  62  38  81  56 /  20  10   0   0   0

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
TXZ021>044.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
901 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009

TXZ021>044-021100-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
901 PM CDT WED APR 1 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A WIND ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 10 PM TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT RESULTING IN
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. A FEW GUSTS GREATER THAN 50
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
THUS THE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY
MORNING. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN ON FRIDAY...AND ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED.