Hail and Damaging Winds in South Carolina, May 6, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
227 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...BEFORE
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS ORIENTED WEST TO EAST JUST NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH SHARPENING UP TO THE WEST OVER TN.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP IN VISIBLE IMAGERY OVER THE
SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS
INDICATES 1000 TO 2000 J/KG CAPE IN THIS AREA. WIND SHEAR WILL
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH...AND 40 TO 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD MATERIALIZE
AFTER 21Z. IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL ALSO PROVIDE PLENTY
OF DEEP LAYER FORCING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CURRENT TORNADO
WATCH FOR NE GA AND THE WRN UPSTATE IS WELL PLACED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING CONVECTION...AND THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
EASTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

AFTER A ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING...MTN RAINFALL HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT SPOTTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION IS
FILLING BACK IN TO THE WEST AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW HIGHER RAINFALL
RATES TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WITHIN THE MTN FLOOD WATCH AREA. THE
EXISTING WATCH WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CHARLOTTE
AREA RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAINFALL YESTERDAY...AND ISOLATED FLOODING
IS AGAIN A THREAT. HOWEVER...NO TRAINING OF CONVECTION HAS SET UP IN
THIS AREA YET...SO ANY WATCH WOULD LIKELY BE VERY SHORT FUSED AS THE
THREAT MATERIALIZES.

PRECIPITATION COVERAGE SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST AFTER
06Z AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. A GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW
THEN SETS UP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SFC BOUNDARY SHOULD
SAG BACK SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. EVEN THOUGH UPPER SUPPORT
IS LACKING DAYTIME THU...THE BOUNDARY AND LINGERING INSTABILITY MAY
STILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S EVERYWHERE
BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM WEDNESDAY...ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...AS LOW AMPLITUDE LW TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS. BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT
COULD UNFOLD...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND GOOD DESTABILIZATION OCCURS
IN THE WARM SECTOR. IN FACT...BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS DEVELOP CAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR DURING THIS TIME...WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SPORTING 0-3 KM SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS...
SUGGESTING STRONG POTENTIAL FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS...AND PERHAPS
ISOLATED BOW ECHOES.

DISCREPANCIES CREEP INTO THE MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR SATURDAY...AS THE
NAM AND GFS DIFFER RATHER STRONGLY ON THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
SYNOPTIC FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS QUITE A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH...AND THEREFORE MORE UNSTABLE/WETTER FOR SAT AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE NAM MAINTAINS A FRONTAL POSITION WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA...AND IS BASICALLY DRY ON SATURDAY. DIFFICULT TO SAY WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT WHICH MODEL OFFERS THE BETTER SOLUTION...SO
WE WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA
SAT AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM WEDNESDAY...THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS THAT A SIGNIFICANT SW TROUGH WILL FINALLY MOVE FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO SEND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS MAY GIVE US A COUPLE OF DAYS OF DRY WEATHER/SEASONAL
TEMPS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ONE LAST DAY OF ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE WEATHER COULD BE IN STORE FOR SUNDAY...DEPENDING UPON HOW
QUICKLY THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. IT IS INTERESTING THAT
BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BRING AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE AREA
MONDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE WESTERN CAROLINAS ARE WELL NORTH OF THE
FRONT BY THIS TIME. FOR NOW...WE HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN POPS IN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALL
TERMINAL LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE THUNDER AT SOME POINT THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT. MAINLY MVFR CB CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...WITH TEMPO IFR
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVING
NORTH...ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS AT PIEDMONT SITES.
CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF TEMPO IFR CEILINGS LATE.

THE FRONT WILL SAG BACK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TO PRODUCE A FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY. CEILINGS WILL RECOVER TO
MVFR AND THEN SCATTER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS THU. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY SW TO W.

AT KCLT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE TERMINAL. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL BE 19Z TO 21Z
WITH THE ACTIVITY JUST TO THE WEST. ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDER
WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING 00Z TO 06Z...ALONG WITH THE HIGHEST
THREAT OF SEVERE WINDS...BUT THE TIMING IS STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN.
CONVECTION WILL END OVERNIGHT WITH SW WINDS AND CIGS LOWERING BACK
INTO THE IFR RANGE.

OUTLOOK...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN SE OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY TO PROVIDE SOME DRYING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SE INTO
THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN THE VICINITY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GAZ010-017.
NC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NCZ048-051>053-058-059-
     062>065.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
230 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

GAZ018-026-028-029-SCZ001-002-004-005-010-071830-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-ANDERSON-
230 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

...TORNADO WATCH 254 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY AREA THAT RECEIVE HEAVY
RAIN TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ003-006>009-011>014-019-
071830-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
230 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

...TORNADO WATCH 256 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   TORNADO WATCH.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY AREA THAT RECEIVE HEAVY
RAIN TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062-063-071830-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
230 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ053-064-065-071830-
BUNCOMBE-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
230 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 256 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ033-049-050-071830-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
230 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE PIEDMONT...WHERE ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-071830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-
230 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...TORNADO WATCH 254 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.
   TORNADO WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE
PIEDMONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
937 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

NCZ052-059-063-061400-
HAYWOOD-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
937 AM EDT WED MAY 6 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL JACKSON AND SOUTHERN
HAYWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 1000 AM EDT...

AT 937 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CULLOWHEE...OR 6 MILES SOUTH OF SYLVA...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL JACKSON AND SOUTHERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING LOCATION...

CULLOWHEE...

SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE
WEATHER THREATEN.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BSH

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