Hail in South Carolina, March 1, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
655 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH RESULTING IN
RAIN MIXING WITH AND CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN RETURNING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE COAST AND PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST OFFSHORE. COMPLEXITY OF THE SITUATION WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
AS THE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN ALONG THE SC COAST. AS THE LOW DEEPENS
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION...ESPECIALLY
NEAR DAYBREAK AND INTO SUNDAY. MAIN CONCERNS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ANY
REMAINING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...SITUATION BEGINS TO RAPIDLY CHANGE AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST AND THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO ENVELOP THE REGION. SUBTLE MODEL
CHANGES DURING THE SUNDAY PERIOD HAVE RESULTED IN SHIFTING
THOUGHTS CONCERNING THE TIMING AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. MODELS HAVE
CURRENTLY WARMED SLIGHTLY WHICH WILL PUSH THE ONSET OF SNOW INTO
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. CONCERN HERE IS MODELS MAY
BE TOO WARM AT SURFACE AND WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW...SO HAVE
REMAINED A TOUCH COLDER THAN MODELS BUT HAVE WARMED A DEGREE OR
TWO. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...WITH COLD AIR MOVING IN EXPECT
TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE DAY AND SLOWLY FALLING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MAIN FOCUS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT REMAINS SNOW AND SNOW
AMOUNT. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE DIFFERENCES ON TEMPERATURES AND
FREEZING HEIGHTS...HOWEVER THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT SIMILARITIES.
UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA WITH MOISTURE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE WATCH AREA RECEIVING AROUND 2 INCHES...AN INCH OR
LESS FOR THE ADVISORY AND A DUSTING ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER CONCERN
HERE WILL BE ROADWAYS AS TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING WILL MAKE WET
ROADS SUSCEPTIBLE TO FREEZING...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVE UP THE
COAST WITH SNOW SHOWERS COMING TO AN END BY MIDDAY MONDAY. WITH
DRIER AIR EXPECTED BEHIND THE LOW PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP THE
ROADS CLEAR OFF. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 40
DEGREE MARK WITH LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. QUIET PERIOD SETTLES OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE STORM TRACK
NORTH OF THE REGION. HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE LONG
TERM AS RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OF THE GFS HAS CONFIDENCE LOW. FEW
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST DUE TO IMPENDING
SHORT TERM CONCERNS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY JUST TO THE WEST OF TAF SITES AT ISSUANCE
TIME WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BY 04Z.  A LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE FRONT...AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
PASSAGE.  WINSD AHEAD OF THE FRONT OUT OF THE SOUTH...THEN TURNING
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY AFTER THE PASSAGE.  MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AGAIN.  COULD SEE A
CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT DUE TO THIS
BEING AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD...HAVE CONTINUED WITH -RA
ALL SITES FOR NOW.  LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL PROBABLY INCLUDED A
MIXTURE.  AS FOR CONDITIONS...MOST SITES MVFR RIGHT NOW...BUT EXPECT
IFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW MOVING
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.  VFR CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR SCZ018-020-022-025>029-031.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR SCZ015-016-021.
GA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR GAZ040-063-064.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
538 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

SCZ015-016-021-011715-
LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-FAIRFIELD-
538 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WATCH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS
OF BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE FORECAST...THERE CONTINUES
TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FINAL TRACK OF THE STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ040-063-064-SCZ018-020-022-025>029-031-011715-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-
SALUDA-LEXINGTON-RICHLAND-LEE-SUMTER-
538 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST
MONDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND ONE INCH OF SNOW ARE FORECAST...THERE
CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FINAL TRACK OF THE
STORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

GAZ065-077-SCZ030-035>038-041-011715-
RICHMOND-BURKE-AIKEN-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-BAMBERG-
538 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA AND
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
SUNDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THE
AMOUNTS STILL EXISTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.