Cold in Pennsylvania, January 16 to 18, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
605 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA ON SATURDAY, THEN LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH
PERHAPS A WEAK SECONDARY LOW SCOOTING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON
SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH OUR AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A COASTAL STORM MAY DEVELOP INTO MONDAY AND
MOVE TO OUR EAST. ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP FURTHER
OFFSHORE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. A COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AN 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT WAS STRETCHED FROM THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. AN UPPER AIR
ANALYSIS SHOWED A MIDLEVEL TROUGH AXIS FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN TO
THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. ONE STRETCHED OUT SHORT WAVE WAS NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC WHILE ANOTHER ONE WAS OVER IOWA AND MISSOURI. A
POTENT 300 MB JET WAS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES NORTHEASTWARD TO
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WHILE A SECONDARY JET MAXIMUM WAS FROM
THE MIDWEST TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

OUR WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE CONTROLLED BY AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE, WHICH IS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC AIR MASS ENTRENCHED OVER
OUR AREA. THIS AIR MASS IS NOT ONLY REALLY COLD, BUT IT IS VERY DRY
AS WELL WHICH IS EVIDENT BY THE SURFACE DEW POINTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA WELL BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXTENT OF THIS DRY AIR HAS
KEPT CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM. AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD
TONIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH AS VERTICAL MIXING
GREATLY WANES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LAST NIGHT AND
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOT STRONG ENOUGH,
THEREFORE SEVERAL LOCATIONS DECOUPLED, WHICH ALLOWED TEMPERATURES
TO PLUMMET. THIS WAS ESPECIALLY THE CASE UP NORTH WHERE SNOW COVER
REMAINS. WE DECIDED TO UNDERCUT MOS IN MANY LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT
GIVEN THE SCOPE OF THE AIR MASS AND THAT LESS WIND IS EXPECTED.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE THE VARIABILITY
IN THE OVERNIGHT LOWS, ESPECIALLY IN MORE SHELTERED AREAS AND
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND. NEVERTHELESS, IT WILL BE
ANOTHER BITTERLY COLD NIGHT. DESPITE THE WIND DIMINISHING THROUGH
THE NIGHT, IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND ACROSS THE POCONOS TO GET
WIND CHILL VALUES TO CRITERIA, THEREFORE THE ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WE BEGIN THIS TIME FRAME ON THE TRANQUIL YET BITTERLY COLD SIDE AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE COMPUTER MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WAA WILL BEGIN ALOFT AS THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR RETREATS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THIS WAA ZONE CAN
ALREADY BE OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
COUNTRY AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A RIBBON OF CLOUD COVER
AND EVEN SOME SNOW. TO THE WEST OF THIS ZONE, SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE MUCH WARMER. THE WAA WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT LATE IN THE DAY AND
AT NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES TO OUR NORTHEAST AND EAST AND
A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. FOR NOW, WE
WILL INDICATE SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY
SATURDAY /MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL/.

THE COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, OUR REGION WILL BE UNDER WAA AND ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM MAY HAVE TO OVERCOME A RATHER DRY AIR
MASS. AS THE OVERRUNNING OCCURS, A SWATH OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
STRETCH EASTWARD LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND REACH OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES,
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THE BULK OF ANY SNOW FALLS ON SUNDAY. THE QPF
GRADIENT YET AGAIN LOOKS RATHER TIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND WE
WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE STORM TRACK SLIPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
ADVERTISED. IT LOOKS LIKE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW COULD
FALL ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SUNDAY THEN THIS TAPERS OFF DRAMATICALLY
SOUTHWARD. A DISCUSSION OF THE PATTERN/MODELS FROM ABOUT THIS
EVENT ON IS DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM SECTION
BELOW. IT ALL COMES DOWN TO THE DOMINATE SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND HOW
THEY EVOLVE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL THROUGH. WE MAY HAVE TWO SEPARATE
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH OR HAVE ONE LARGER ONE, WITH THE FIRST NOT
HAVING MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON MOST OF THE CWA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
INVOLVED AND AS OF NOW, WE HANDLED IT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM SUNDAY,
THEN LEFT THE DOOR OPEN FOR A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW IMPACT SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

GIVEN THE TRACK STATED ABOVE, WE MAINTAINED THE LIKELY POPS FOR THE
FAR NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH POPS TAPERING OFF TO
THE SOUTH. WE COULD JINX THIS BY GOING WITH LIGHT SNOW TERMINOLOGY,
HOWEVER IN GENERAL IT LOOKS LIKE A NUISANCE TYPE EVENT ACCUMULATION
WISE. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, WE UTILIZED A BLEND OF CONTINUITY AND
THE MAV GUIDANCE AS THEY WERE RATHER CLOSE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WE
DID UNDERCUT SOME LOW TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT SATURDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY UP NORTH, DUE TO SNOW COVER AND COLD HIGH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE MOSTLY DOMINATED BY TROUGHING IN THE
EAST AND RIDGING IN THE WEST. THERE STILL ARE SIGNALS THOUGH THAT
THE UPSTREAM RIDGING BREAKS DOWN FOR A TIME AROUND THE MIDWEEK TIME
FRAME, ALLOWING THE EASTERN TROUGH TO BEGIN LIFTING OUT WITH A NOTED
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MOSTLY SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING ALONG WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH
AXIS. GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE UNDERGOING A CHANGE IN
CONFIGURATION, THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME TIMING ISSUES REGARDING THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT OVER TOPS THE WESTERN RIDGE AND THEN DROPS
DOWN INTO THE EASTERN TROUGH. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE
FEATURES WILL ULTIMATELY DRIVE OUR MORE SENSITIVE WEATHER, AND COULD
HAVE IMPACTS ON POTENTIALLY CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT THE UNCERTAINTY IS MOSTLY DEPENDENT UPON THE EASTERN PACIFIC
PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE NOW LOOKS TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD SLOWER, WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW SHORT WAVE ENERGY
THAT DROPS INTO THE TROUGH TO OCCUR FARTHER TO THE WEST. HOW THIS
ENERGY EVOLVES WILL HAVE DOWNSTREAM AFFECTS NOT WITH ONLY THE
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUT WITH THE DETAILS.

THE 00Z ECMWF SHOVES STRONGER ENERGY INTO THE PLAINS WHICH
ULTIMATELY DEVELOPS A COASTAL LOW NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THIS APPEARED TO BE A BREAK IN
ITS CONTINUITY AS IT SPLITS THE ENERGY, ALLOWING FOR STRONGER
DIGGING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH
THE DEVELOP AND ALSO WEAKER AND MUCH FARTHER EAST, ESPECIALLY WHEN
COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS. THE WRF ALSO INDICATES STRONGER SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AND DEVELOPS A COASTAL STORM AND IS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THIS MAY
BE A COMPONENT OF THE MODEL OVER AMPLIFYING AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
INTO THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF IS WITH THE WRF WHILE THE GFS IS WITH
THE SREF. THERE ARE SIGNS THOUGH THAT A POSSIBLE EVENT EITHER LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY COULD BE THE MAIN EVENT, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THOUGH WITH THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND TIMING, WE GENERALLY FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FROM
HPC, WHICH UTILIZED THE ECMWF ALTHOUGH WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN OVER TIME TO ADDRESS THE UNCERTAINTY. HOWEVER,
WE DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOCAL AFFECTS AND AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES. GIVEN ALL
OF THIS, HERE ARE SOME DETAILS.

A STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR EAST MONDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DROPPING DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SURFACE LOW TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE PLACEMENT AND ORIENTATION OF THE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DETERMINE THE
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE. GOING WITH THIS SYSTEM FORMING, IT THEN
SCOOTS TO THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TUESDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE,
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. IT IS NOT REAL CLEAR IF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY THAT IS
ADVERTISED DIGS ENOUGH TO PULL THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FARTHER TO
THE WEST, WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE
COAST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN IS CHANGING SUCH THAT THE TROUGH IS A BIT FARTHER TO THE
WEST. FOR NOW, WE WILL FOLLOW HPCS LEAD AND NOT PLACE THE SURFACE
LOW TUESDAY REAL CLOSE TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THE ENERGY DIVING DOWN AND TEAMING
UP WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE COULD ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK
FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST. TIME WILL CERTAINLY TELL ON THIS ONE
ESPECIALLY AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORT WAVES BECOME BETTER IDENTIFIED
AND MORE CLEAR ON THEIR LOCATION/STRENGTH. FOR NOW THOUGH, WE WILL
KEEP SOME CHC POPS IN MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AREAS GIVEN THE
TRACK AND LOWER CONFIDENCE. THIS SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IT
LIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY MORNING, LEAVING
OUR AREA UNDER AN INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ADDITIONAL ENERGY
THOUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM TO CRUISE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT THEN EVENTUALLY GETS PULLED ACROSS OUR
AREA, AND AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS TO BE FRIDAY MORNING. A
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
THEN PERHAPS A SHOT OF COLDER AIR WEDNESDAY BEFORE SOME
MODERATION TAKES PLACE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

THAT IS ALL FOR NOW. THANKS TO THE SURROUNDING OFFICES/HPC FOR THE
COLLABORATION TODAY. HAVE A GOOD ONE

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A VFR FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS. NO CLOUDS
AT ALL ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. THE CURRENT W TO NW WIND WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH. AS THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS OFFSHORE
SATURDAY, WINDS WILL SLOWLY BACK TOWARD OR TO THE SOUTH DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SHOULD START ARRIVING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A MID LEVEL DECK OF
AC CLOUDS EXPECTED DURING SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
THERE IS SOME THREAT OF SNOW AHEAD OF AND WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF SNOW ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WERE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 500 PM. WINDS HAVE BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS
AFTERNOON OVER DELAWARE BAY AND ALONG THE NJ/DE COASTS...AND THIS
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER. SEAS AT BUOY 44009 HAVE ALSO COME DOWN
TO BELOW 4 FT INDICATING DIMINISHING WINDS.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT ON SATURDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES SLOWLY OFF THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE MAY ALSO DEVELOP DURING THIS TIME FARTHER SOUTH ALONG
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ATTM
REGARDING THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ANY SECONDARY LOWS...BUT AT
LEAST MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDS COULD RE-DEVELOP FOR SUNDAY OR
MONDAY. SINCE CONDS WILL REMAIN QUITE COLD IN GENERAL...ADDITIONAL
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES COULD ALSO BE NEEDED.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THAT IS INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK..LOOKS FAIRLY BENIGN ATTM.

&&

.CLIMATE...
IT WAS BITTERLY COLD THIS MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, AND SOME
PLACES EXPERIENCED AIR TEMPERATURES THAT DROPPED WELL BELOW ZERO. A
NEW JERSEY WEATHERNET STATION IN WALPACK, NEW JERSEY /SUSSEX COUNTY/
DROPPED TO -12F THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SUSSEX COUNTY AIRPORT
DROPPED TO A BONE-CHILLING -15F AS THERE WAS LITTLE TO NO WIND AT
THIS SITE. THE AIR TEMPERATURE AT THE MOUNT POCONO AIRPORT PLUMMETED
TO -4F, HOWEVER THE REPORTED WIND CHILL WAS DOWN TO A NUMBING -21F
THIS MORNING

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/AMC
MARINE...AMC
CLIMATE...GORSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
500 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

PAZ054-055-172200-
CARBON-MONROE-
500 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND CHILL ADVISORY.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.
A COASTAL STORM COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, THEREFORE MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

NJZ001-007>010-012-PAZ061-062-172200-
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
500 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. DESPITE THE WIND
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AROUND 5
BELOW ZERO BUT POSSIBLY COLDER IN SOME OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.
A COASTAL STORM COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, THEREFORE MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DEZ001>003-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ013>027-PAZ060-067>071-172200-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-CECIL-KENT MD-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-
CAROLINE-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-BERKS-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-
PHILADELPHIA-
500 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. DESPITE THE
WIND DIMINISHING THROUGH THE NIGHT, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 5 BELOW ZERO AND POSSIBLY COLDER IN SOME OF THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE
AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS TO BE NORTH
OF A LINE FROM BERKS COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA TO MERCER COUNTY AND
MONMOUTH COUNTY IN NEW JERSEY WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS
SOUTHWARD. A COASTAL STORM COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM,
THEREFORE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-DEZ004-172200-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
DELAWARE BEACHES-
500 PM EST FRI JAN 16 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A COASTAL STORM COULD DEVELOP SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM,
THEREFORE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

TFG