Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, June 25, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
125 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT LOCATED FROM MICHIGAN TO WISCONSIN WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DECENT CAP OVER THE AREA TODAY AS WE WATCHED THE MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUD COVER THAT WAS OVER MICHIGAN DISSIPATE AS THE ATMOSPHERE
MIXED. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE MID 90S WEST AND AROUND 90 ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE
LAKE.

HAVE ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE CONVECTION INTO THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA FIRST.
WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE CONVECTION THAT IS ROLLING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO SEE WHAT IT DOES AS IT MOVES ACROSS EASTERN
LAKE ERIE. SO AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE 2 AREAS OF HIGHER
POPS...ONE ROLLING OUT OF ONTARIO AND THE OTHER DEVELOPING
SOUTHERN MICHIGAN INTO NW OHIO. THE WESTERN CONVECTION LOOKS TO
GET GOING AROUND 20Z THEN PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.
BELIEVE THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS DURING
THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WINDING DOWN THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

LOOKS AS IF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL MAINLY BE WIND BUT WILL
CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME 1 INCH HAIL.

OTHERWISE INCREASED HIGHS SLIGHTLY WITH THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
USING A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS MODELS WITH A LIKELY POP
CONTINUING FOR THE EVENING. THE COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY FORECAST FROM
BOTH WORKSTATION MODELS DONT SHOW THAT MUCH ACTIVITY...HOWEVER...THIS
DOESNT SEEM CORRECT WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING IN AND THE SHORT
WAVE MOVING THROUGH AND THE MOISTURE INCREASING. WENT WITH THE
COOLER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY/FRONT.

THE 00Z NAM IS TRYING TO HINT A TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND A
THREAT OF SHOWERS IN SPOTS. WILL CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST BASED ON
THE GFS AND ECMWF. DRY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE THREAT FOR MAINLY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT STILL LOOKS REASONABLE AND ENDING THE THREAT FOR THE
MOST PART SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS TRYING TO HINT AT A LITTLE TROUGH
ROTATING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...THUS THE 20 POPS.

USED MAINLY THE GRIDDED MOS FOR TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HOWEVER...ALL SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTING UP JUST NE
OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW AND UNUSUALLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL COMBINE TO CREATE ON AND OFF INSTABILITY SHRA. THUNDER WILL
BE A CONCERN TOO...ESPECIALLY MONDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP APPEAR
TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WELL. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS NE OH AND NW PA BUT A SHRA
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL BRING A DISTINCT AIRMASS CHANGE AND TEMPERATURES DURING MOST
OF THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS THE
MAIN CHALLENGE. WILL GIVE ALL SITES A 2 OR 3 HOUR TEMPO PERIOD FOR
THUNDER. CU JUST NOW STARTING TO FORM. HERE AT KCLE...THESE CU ARE
HAVING A TOUGH TIME. THEY DEVELOP TO ALMOST MODERATE CU STAGE THEN
FALL APART. THIS IS LIKELY BECAUSE IT IS STILL RELATIVELY DRY
ALOFT. WE SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THIS DRIER AIR AS
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN LERI SHOULD JUST MISS KERI THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. EXPECT RAPID DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE SCATTERED IN NATURE WITH NO MORE THAN 40 OR 50 PERCENT COVERAGE
EXPECTED. FIRST STORMS SHOULD GO UP IN KTOL AREA BY 21Z OR SO AND
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. WILL LIKELY
MAKE SOME LAST MINUTE TWEAKS TO TIMING. PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN
QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE. LAKE BREEZE
SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH KCLE THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME DAYBREAK MVFR FOG/HAZE
THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY MORNING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT AND SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL LAKES WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS LAKE ONTARIO AND
NEW ENGLAND.  THAT WILL MAKE THE FLOW FRIDAY UPWARDS OF 15 KNOTS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE THE NEXT CONCERN WOULD BE THE NEXT
COLD FRONT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY TAKING WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY.  SURFACE AND UPPER LOW HANG AROUND THE
EASTERN LAKES INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA/OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1206 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-261615-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
1206 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS BUT HAIL
AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN
INTO NORTHWESTERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
4 PM ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OHIO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING AND COULD PRODUCE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE AND MAY BRING A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT TO NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA FOR EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.