Lake-Effect Snow in Ohio, December 27 to 29, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
651 PM EST SUN DEC 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY OTHERWISE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FROM FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NICE SHORT WAVE ROTATING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WHICH WILL CROSS
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA EARLY TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS SLOWLY COOLING AND
SYSTEM PROGGED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH SOMEWHAT PHASES WITH LONGER WAVE TROUGH. SHOULD RESULT IN A
NICE EXPANSION OF SYNOPTIC SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT. THE BEST SNOW MAY SLIDE JUST SOUTH OF TOLEDO OTHERWISE
WOULD SEEM AS THOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE 3 TO 4 INCHES OF SYNOPTIC
SNOW. THIS WOULD BARELY QUALIFY FOR AN ADVISORY BUT BEING THE FIRST
SHOVELABLE SNOW FOR MOST AREAS WILL GO AHEAD AN ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.

THE WIND IS SOUTHWEST FOR A GOOD PART OF THE EVENT SO NO LAKE
ENHANCEMENT UNTIL THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AT WHICH POINT THE FLOW
WILL VEER MORE TOWARD THE WNW AND SOME LAKE ENHANCED/EFFECT SNOW
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SNOWBELT EAST OF CLEVELAND. AM WORRIED ABOUT
SOME HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW ALONG THE LAKESHORE FOR A FEW HOURS
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS FLOW IS ALMOST WESTERLY AND DEEPER SYNOPTIC
MOISTURE PERSISTS. TO KEEP THINGS SIMPLE AND AVOID THE SITUATION OF
MULTIPLE HEADLINES WILL SIMPLY CALL THE EVENT A LAKE EFFECT
ADVISORY/WARNING FOR THE SNOWBELT AND CONTINUE THE ADVISORY/WARNING
INTO EARLY WEEK AS THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL LAKE EFFECT SNOWS.

FAVOR THE WARMER GFS/MAV MIN TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE TONIGHT AS IT WILL
TAKE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FOR THE COLDER AIR TO
ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT FROM CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND A QUICK BURST OF SNOW POSSIBLE. SYNOPTIC SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE IMPRESSIVE...PROBABLY AN INCH OR LESS.
BOUNDARY FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THE
LAKE EFFECT WILL LIKELY BRIEFLY TAPER OFF. THESE TYPE OF FRONTAL
PASSAGES CAN HAVE DECENT CONVERGENCE AND THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT CAN
RESULT IN HEAVIER BURST(S) OF SNOW AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO
DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SNOWBELT. THE FLOW SHOULD THEN
BECOME NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. SHORTER FETCH AND DRIER AIR WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT EXCEPT FARTHER EAST WHERE
THE LAKE HURON FETCH MAY CAUSE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS TO PERSIST. THE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR ASHTABULA...ERIE AND CRAWFORD PA
COUNTIES WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE OTHER SNOWBELT COUNTIES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED IN THE NEAR TERM
DISCUSSION... THE LAKE EFFECT ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WERE STARTED
SUNDAY NIGHT RATHER THAN TRY AND DIFFERENTIATE THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
VERSUS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW. IT IS ALL WHITE.

PREFER THE COLDER TEMPERATURE MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY AS
COLDER AIR SHOULD START TO FILTER IN. THE ARCTIC AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WILL CUT FORECAST AND GUIDANCE
TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF CATEGORIES USING THE MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPS AS A GUIDE WHICH TENDS TO BETTER CAPTURE THE ARCTIC AIR. SNOW
SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL TAPER OFF LATER TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL ATTEMPT TO BRING ENOUGH
MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW BY THURSDAY
MORNING. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL RETURN
AT THIS TIME WITH THE MAIN JET ENERGY REMAINING SOUTH OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM
THEN COLDER AIR SPILLING ACROSS THE REGION IN ITS WAKE ON SATURDAY.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY BUT WILL RETURN TO WELL
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OVER NORTHERN
OHIO TONIGHT. SNOW SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS
AND VIS DROPPING DOWN INTO IFR. SNOW WILL GET TO CAK YNG AND ERI
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

SNOW WILL BEGIN TAPERING OFF A BIT WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS TO
CONDITIONS OUT WEST AROUND 06Z THEN CONTINUING EASTWARD THROUGH
REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVEMENTS AT EASTERN AREAS TOWARDS
12Z. PUT SOME TIMING IN TAFS TO INDICATE A LULL IN SNOWFALL ACROSS
MOST SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BATCH
OF SNOW.

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE LAKE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH ALLOW FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AT SITES THEN BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAKE OVER LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH 00Z
TUE. EXPECTING SITES EAST OF CLE TO SEE MOST IMPACT FROM LAKE
EFFECT. RATHER FAR OUT IN TAFS BUT DID MENTION IFR VIS IN SNOW
SHOWERS AT CLE AND ERI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
CONFIDENCE A BIT LESS ON IMPACT AND TIMING. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE
LESS IMPACT...AND MFD MAY SEE TEMPORARY IFR CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AND THEN PERSISTING OVER NE OHIO AND NE PA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
NON-VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
DECENT SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY MORNING.
THIS STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL ASSIST IN BRINGING STRONGER WINDS TO
THE SURFACE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO OVER 35 KNOTS. THESE WESTERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS STRONG INTO THE EVENING AND LOOK TO FALL
UNDER GALE CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO ON TUESDAY WITH SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW LINGER
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS JET ENERGY
MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ012-
     013.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ009>011-
     019>023-029>033-038-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR OHZ017-
     018-027-028-036-037.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR LEZ061-142>149-
     162>169.

&&

SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...ABE
MARINE...MULLEN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
443 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2009

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>010-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
280945-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-
PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-
MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
443 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ014-089-PAZ001>003-280945-
ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
CRAWFORD PA-
443 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2009

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ011>013-280945-
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
443 AM EST SUN DEC 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD
OCCUR FURTHER TO THE EAST OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO OR NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA. HOWEVER LOCALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES COULD FALL MONDAY AND
AGAIN MONDAY EAST OF CLEVELAND INCLUDING MENTOR AND CHARDON
AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.