Flash Flood and Hail in North Carolina, June 3, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1016 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW...WHILE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE COLD FRONT
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA BY SUNDAY AND WEAKEN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW CU JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER MTNS
LATE THIS MRNG AND GOING FCST ON TRACK WITH CHANCE SHWRS/TSTMS MTNS
THIS AFTN...SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO
T/TD/RH/WIND AND SKY...UPDATED PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DURING THE MORNING WITH PATCHY MTN VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...DURING THE
AFTERNOON MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL FALL IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NW OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE STEADILY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING OVER THE MTNS MAINLY DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER OUTSIDE
OF THE MTNS WILL LEAD TO LOWER POP. HOWEVER...THERE WERE ISOLATED
TSRA IN THIS AREA TUESDAY...SO THIS KIND OF COVERAGE CAN BE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN. LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVELS...DCAPE AROUND 750 J/KG AND SFC
DELTA THETA-E VALUES FROM 25 TO 30 WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN. LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR...SO ISOLATED SVR STORMS WITH
LITTLE TO NO ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS WILL STILL APPROACH 90
IN MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WITH LOW TO MID 80S MTN
VALLEYS.

THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH OVER THE MTNS...IT WILL STILL BE
LIMITED ELSEWHERE. SCT MTN CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOST OF THE NIGHT
BUT DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. SCT CONVECTION MAY MOVE OUT OF THE
FOOTHILLS INTO THE NWRN NC PIEDMONT DURING THE EVENING...THEN
DISSIPATE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONVECTION CHC REMAINS LOW OUTSIDE OF THE
MTNS IN THE UPSTATE AND NE GA...BUT ISOLATED COVERAGE POSSIBLE. SVR
CHC WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING...BUT MAY VERY WELL LINGER
THRU THE EVENING. LOWS WILL BE QUITE MILD WITH MID 60S OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS AND AROUND 60 OVER THE MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SAG INTO THE
AREA THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST FROM THE MISS
VALLEY. WITH PLENTY OF MOIST INFLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC...COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE NUMEROUS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS JUST HOW STRONG WILL CONVECTION GET DURING
THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS CLOUD COVER WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA EARLY
IN THE DAY...WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE QUITE WEAK.
CONSIDERING THIS...A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...BUT I WOULD
NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. THE LARGER
CONCERN MAY BE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
ZONES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INSIST THAT A WARM-CORE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW...IN ADVANCE OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS NOT AS STRONG...IT CONTINUES TO
DEPICT SOMETHING SIMILAR. BOTH MODELS MAXIMIZE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

FRIDAYS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ABOUT AS CLEAR AS MUD. THE NAM AND
THE GFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OF IN-SITU COLD AIR
DAMMING...DUE TO A FURTHER INLAND TRACK TO THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW.
MEANWHILE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE LINGERING ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR
SOUTHWEST MAINTAINS SOME DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY...AT LEAST
ACCORDING TO A MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH THE TEMPTATION TO PUNT IS
STRONG...I JUST DON/T FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH THE LIKELY POPS IN OUR
CURRENT FORECAST...SO THESE HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO CHANCE. MAX TEMPS
ARE ALSO BEING NUDGED UPWARD IN LIGHT OF THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CAD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES EAST OF THE AREA
FOR SATURDAY...WHILE WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT (SUPPOSEDLY) EAST OF THE AREA...IT APPEARS THAT WE
SHOULD SEE LITTLE MORE THAN ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION. EVEN THIS
MAY BE A BIT OF A STRETCH. AS THE BERMUDA HIGH BECOMES RE-
ESTABLISHED EARLY NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE...
ALLOWING FOR IMPROVED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR CLOUDS CREATING CIGS OVER THE SWRN TAF SITES. THESE SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS COULD CREATE A VFR
CIG AT KAVL EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CU DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON
WITH CONVECTION MOST LIKELY OVER THE MTNS. SWLY WINDS INCREASE IN
SPEED AND COULD DEVELOP SOME LOW END GUSTS BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
COULD LINGER THRU THE EVENING OVER THE MTNS AND NC FOOTHILLS. WINDS
DIMINISH THRU THE EVENING. VFR CIGS LIKELY AT KAVL/KHKY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

AT KCLT...MVFR CLOUDS JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL COULD DRIFT NORTH
CREATING A CIG FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL NOT
FCST A CIG ATTM...BUT WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON SAT PIX AND KUZA AND
KEQY OBS. OTHERWISE...VFR CU DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY
ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED. SLY WINDS INCREASE AND COULD DEVELOP
SOME LOW END GUSTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND CONVECTION DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...DEEP MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND
REMAIN UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF RAIN AND TSRA WILL DEVELOP
FROM TIME TO TIME LATE THIS WEEK. LIMITATIONS TO VIS AND CIGS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR AT NIGHT...LIMITATIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR DURING MODERATE
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...RB/RWH
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
542 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-040945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
542 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-040945-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
542 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...A FEW OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF PERIODS OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1120 AM EDT WED JUN 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 AM     HAIL             4 SE TUCKASEGEE         35.23N 83.07W
06/02/2009  E0.88 INCH       JACKSON            NC   PUBLIC

            HAIL FELL FOR 15-20 MINUTES...COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED FOR TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1120 AM EDT WED JUN 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             4 SE TUCKASEGEE         35.23N 83.07W
06/02/2009  E0.88 INCH       JACKSON            NC   PUBLIC

            HAIL FELL FOR 15-20 MINUTES...COVERED THE GROUND.

&&

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1245 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     HAIL             11 N LENOIR             36.07N 81.53W
06/02/2009  E1.00 INCH       CALDWELL           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1 INCH HAIL REPORTED

&&

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1247 PM EDT WED JUN 03 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND DMG     11 N LENOIR             36.07N 81.53W
06/02/2009                   CALDWELL           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WINDS BLEW PART OF A CARPORT ROOF OFF.

&&

JPT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
101 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

NCZ507-508-510-031730-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER RUTHERFORD-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
101 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN POLK AND WESTERN
RUTHERFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

AT 101 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE LURE...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF COLUMBUS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CHIMNEY
  ROCK AND LAKE LURE.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
113 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

NCZ049-050-505-031745-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MITCHELL-YANCEY-
113 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MCDOWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
MITCHELL AND SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY COUNTIES THROUGH 145 PM EDT...

AT 111 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF BUSICK...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF
SPRUCE PINE...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WOODLAWN.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

NED