Flash Flood in North Carolina, July 9, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND STALL
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE NC ZONES THIS MORNING. CONVECTION COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NC MTNS
AND FOOTHILLS. RECENT W/V IMAGES INDICATE THAT A MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY OVER EAST TN WILL MOVE OVER SRN APPALACHIANS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE SHOULD AID THE FORMATION OF MTN SHRA/TSRA
BETWEEN 17Z-20Z AND STORM MOTIONS SHOULD CARRY THE CONVECTION SLOWLY
EAST ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE SLOW CELL MOTIONS MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...CAPE
VALUES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG UPDRAFTS...RESULTING IN A MARGINAL
HAIL/WIND THREAT. I WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY TO HIGH CHC ACROSS
THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS WITH A CHC ACROSS THE UPSTATE OF SC AND NE
GA THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY...SCT TO NUM SHRA/TSRA...WITH HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST...AND THE ATMOSPHERE
STABILIZES...SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY WANE DURING THE EVENING...WITH
CHANCE POPS CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 06Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER REGION FRI
NIGHT-SAT BUT AS A TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SAT...RIDGE
FLATTENS OVER AREA. WEAK HIGH PRES AT SFC FRI NIGHT ALSO WEAKENS
SAT...BUT WITH UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHWRS/TSTMS OVER MTNS SAT AFTN. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS SAT NEAR AVG.
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN SAT NIGHT-SUN WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVG INTO THE CWA FROM THE NW. MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE MAY BE A
LIMITING FACTOR BUT WITH TEMPS WARMING A CAT OR SO ABOVE AVG...
EXPECT CHANCE SHWRS/TSTMS OVER MTNS AND FOOTHILLS SUN AFTN...
TAPERING TO SLIGHT OVER CHANCE FOR FAR S CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW REMAINS W TO NW THRU THE PERIOD
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVG ACROSS THE REGION. GFS AND ECMWF IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SUN NIGHT-MON WITH SFC BOUNDARY JUST N OF AREA SLOWLY
SINKING S INTO CWA. WENT WITH INCRSNG CHANCE SHWRS/TSTMS THRU MON
WITH CHANCE POPS CONTINUING THRU TUE AS BOUNDARY STALLS OVER AREA.
MODELS SHOW FRONT WASHING OUT SLIGHTLY BUT LINGERING OVER AREA THRU
THE EXTENDED SO KEPT DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS OVER CWA EACH
DAY. HIGHS REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVG WITH LOWS A FEW DEG ABOVE
AVG THRU THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...BASED ON THE TCLT RADAR TRENDS...A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHRA
AND TSRA WILL REACH THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 1810Z AND 1830Z. IFR VIS
SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 19-20Z.
IN ADDITION...MARGINALLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORM. STRATIFORM RAIN BEHIND THE CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE TERMINAL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENING.
VFR CEILINGS AND VIS SHOULD VERIFY MOST OF TONIGHT...HOWEVER...VIS
MAY REMAIN LIMITED TO 6SM IN BR AND HZ THROUGH DAYBREAK. ENE WINDS
SHOULD STRENGTHEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...RANGING FROM 5-8
KTS.

ELSEWHERE...SHRA AND TSRA WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN
THROUGH THE EVENING. COVERAGE OVER THE MTNS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. IT APPEARS
THAT COVERAGE WILL REACH IT/S PEAK BETWEEN 21-23Z. I WILL FORECAST
RAINFALL AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES BY THE END OF THE FAVORED WINDOW
OF PRECIPITATION. THE COMBINATION OF SATURATED SOIL AND DRYING ALOFT
WILL FAVOR THE FORMATION OF LIGHT FOG AND PATCHY STRATUS OVERNIGHT.
AT KAVL...I WILL FORECAST IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 8-14Z.
ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS MAY FALL TO MVFR LAT TONIGHT. NE WINDS SHOULD
STRENGTHEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY...RANGING FROM 5-8
KTS.

OUTLOOK...ISOLD-SCT DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED THRU SAT. THEN
COVERAGE INCREASING SUN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST MORNINGS...ESP AT KAVL.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RB
NEAR TERM...NED/JDL
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...RB
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
430 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-100830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
430 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY AND PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...AND POSSIBLY FLOODING. LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD
DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE A THUNDERSTORM FORMS. FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS...ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1027 AM EDT THU JUL 09 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E HARTWELL            34.35N 82.84W
07/08/2009                   HART               GA   UTILITY COMPANY

            ROADS FLOODED AND WATER OVER 6 INCHES DEEP AROUND TANK
            FARM AT HARTWELL ENERGY PLANT.

&&

PTANNER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1054 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2009

NCZ502-504-091615-
GREATER BURKE-GREATER CALDWELL-
1054 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2009

...A NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING EASTERN BURKE AND
SOUTHERN CALDWELL COUNTIES...

AT 1051 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE RHODHISS...OR 7 MILES SOUTH OF LENOIR.
THIS STORM IS REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1228 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2009

NCZ072-091730-
CABARRUS-
1228 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT CABARRUS
COUNTY THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

AT 1226 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF CONCORD. THIS STORM IS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY
FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF POSSIBLE.
WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING
TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
141 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2009

NCZ070-SCZ009-091845-
GASTON-YORK-
141 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECTING
SOUTHEASTERN GASTON AND NORTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES...

AT 139 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM CRAMERTON TO 6 MILES
WEST OF TEGA CAY...MOVING EAST AT 5 MILES PER HOUR.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RANLO...
  MOUNT HOLLY...MCADENVILLE...LOWELL...CRAMERTON AND BELMONT.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

KRENTZ