Debris Flow in North Carolina, January 7, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1253 AM EST WED JAN 7 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH ACROSS NORTH
CAROLINA TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE OVER TENNESSEE MOVES
NORTHEAST...AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BY THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE MAIN AXIS OF THE FRONTAL BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS EAST TENN
INTO EXTREME WESTERN NC. MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPED OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BAND ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA HAS DIMINISHED
GREATLY IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY IN A GRADUALLY STABILIZING AIR MASS.
THEREFORE...THE EARLIER TORNADO WATCH WAS CANCELLED. HOWEVER...THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS NOT ENDED...THOUGH IT DOES REMAIN QUITE
LOW. THE SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY PERSISTENT IN PULLING AN
AXIS OF BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY INTO THE UPSTATE/NORTHEAST GA AS
THE FRONTAL BAND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHEAR
PROFILES DURING THE TIME WILL REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/
SHALLOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE SEVERE
THREAT IN THE HWO...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

GRADUALLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS IS
RESULTING IN SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE UPSTATE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS...WHICH MEET MARGINAL LAKE WIND CRITERIA. MOST
OF THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY DIMINISH BY 3 AM...IF NOT
EARLIER...BUT WE HAVE RECEIVED SOME REPORTS OF DOWNED TREES DUE TO
THE GUSTY WIND/SATURATED SOIL COMBO...AND FEELING THE NEED TO HAVE A
PRODUCT ADDRESSING THIS ISSUE...AN LWA HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.

OTHERWISE...WARM/STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO OSCILLATE ALONG THE
I-85 CORRIDOR IN THE NC PIEDMONT THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE FROPA SEEING A RATHER QUICK WARM-UP...
WHILE AREAS IN THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD SEE STEADY OR VERY SLOWLY
FALLING TEMPS.

WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AFTER
18Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUST TO 30
MPH ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. SHRA COVERAGE WILL GENERALLY
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...SCT SHRA MAY
CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE MTNS INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 240 PM TUESDAY...THE NAM BRINGS AN ADVECTIVE SHORT WAVE INTO
THE NC MTNS AROUND 0600 UTC ON THU. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF PCPN
WITH THIS FEATURE ON THE NAM. HPC LIKED THIS SOLUTION WITH THEIR
INTERNAL SNOWFALL GRAPHICS...BRINGING A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NRN NC MTNS ALONG THE TN LINE. I/VE TONED THIS DOWN
A BIT...BUT I STILL HAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG THE TN LINE. I DID UP
THE TOTALS A BIT DOWN ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF GRAHAM AND SWAIN
COUNTIES AS THE FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY WHICH FAVORS HIGHER TOTALS IN
THESE LOCATIONS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...THEN A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PART OF THE NC MTNS FOR WED
NIGHT.

WINDS ACROSS THE NRN MTNS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY THU MORNING. RIGHT NOW
WIND SPEEDS DON/T LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY DAMAGE...BUT THEY
WILL BE PUSHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THU NGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT LOOKS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION...DROPPING TEMPS BACK DOWN TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE BEGINS 12Z SAT WITH AN UPPER
LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST.
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE AMONG THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WITH THE GFS
CONTINUING TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE WRT THE PROPAGATION OF A BROAD
UPPER LVL TROUGH. THIS TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CONUS FOR THE REST OF
THE MEDIUM RANGE. DECIDED TO CONTINUE TO RELY MORE HEAVILY ON THE
ECMWF WHICH WAS MORE IN LINE WITH THE NEW HPC GUIDANCE. AT THE
SFC...BOTH MODELS HAVE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN
WITH NW FLOW SETTING IN AFTER THE FROPA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN ON MON BUT IS QUICKLY PUSHED OFFSHORE AS ANOTHER SFC LOW MOVES
OVER THE REGION ON TUES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP APPEARS TO BE
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD ON SAT WHERE I WENT WITH A SOLID
CHANCE OVER MOST OF THE CWA. POPS WOULD BE HIGHER EXCEPT FOR THE
LACK OF AMPLE LOW LVL MOISTURE. WE ALSO MIGHT SEE SOME PRECIP AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD ON DAY 7 AS THE NEXT FROPA OCCURS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...SFC BNDRY IS FINALLY EDGING N OF THE TERMINAL...W/ GUSTY
S/SWLY WNDS IN ITS WAKE. SO LLWS SHUD NOT BE AS BIG A THREAT. MVFR
CIGS MAY LWR TO IFR ARND 09Z-10Z W/ ANOTHER BAND OF LGT-MOD RAIN
ASSOC W/ SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. FROPA XPCTD ARND 12Z W/ LGT SHRA
BHD THE FNT. WNDS SHIFT TO SWLY AND BCM GUSTY THIS AFTN. CIGS/VSBY
RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY NOON.

ELSW...AREA OF LGT-MOD RAIN WL CONT TO SLOWLY PROGRESS W-E ACRS THE
TERMINAL THRU THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. KHKY IS SOCKED IN A WEDGE OF
COLD AIR AND MAY RMN VLIFR/LIFR UNTIL THE WEDGE ERODES ARND 12Z W/
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. GUSTY SLY WNDS WL CONT AHD OF FNT AT GMU/GSP.
MAINLY MVFR CONDS...EXCEPT IN HEAVIER RAIN SHWRS. CONDS WL IMPROVE
TO VFR AFTER 12Z AS PRECIP ENDS. WNDS SHIFT TO SWLY (NLY AT KAVL)
AND BCM GUSTY THIS AFTN.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN GUSTY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ010-017-018.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     NCZ049-051>053-058-059-062>065.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ033-048>053-058-
     059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ001>014-019.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>006.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TJB
NEAR TERM...JDL/NED
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
917 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

NCZ033-048-050-501-503-505-507-509-080230-
AVERY-MADISON-MITCHELL-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
917 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH WET GROUND MAY DOWN AN UNUSUALLY LARGE
NUMBER OF TREES DURING THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLASH
FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ049-051>053-058-059-062>065-080230-
YANCEY-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
917 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH WET GROUND MAY DOWN AN UNUSUALLY LARGE
NUMBER OF TREES DURING THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF FLASH
FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-080230-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
917 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY...AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT. IF
THE ATMOSPHERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE THAN EXPECTED THEN THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATER...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED...
BRIEF TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH WET GROUND MAY DOWN AN UNUSUALLY LARGE
NUMBER OF TREES DURING THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-SCZ001>006-080230-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-
917 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.
   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY...AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT. IF
THE ATMOSPHERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE THAN EXPECTED THEN THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATER...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED...
BRIEF TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH WET GROUND MAY DOWN AN UNUSUALLY LARGE
NUMBER OF TREES DURING THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ007>014-019-080230-
FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
917 PM EST TUE JAN 6 2009

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   LAKE WIND ADVISORY.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND SHEAR AND WEAK INSTABILITY...AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT. IF
THE ATMOSPHERE IS A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE THAN EXPECTED THEN THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GREATER...INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED...
BRIEF TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP. WIND GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH WET GROUND MAY DOWN AN UNUSUALLY LARGE
NUMBER OF TREES DURING THE DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
115 AM EST WED JAN 7 2009

GAZ028-NCZ065-509-510-SCZ002-003-005>007-010-070715-
ANDERSON-EASTERN POLK-GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER PICKENS-GREENVILLE
MOUNTAINS-HART-HENDERSON-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-POLK
MOUNTAINS-SPARTANBURG-
115 AM EST WED JAN 7 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HART...EASTERN PICKENS...
GREENVILLE...NORTHERN ANDERSON...NORTHWESTERN SPARTANBURG...SOUTHERN
HENDERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 215 AM EST...

AT 112 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTH OF
JONES GAP STATE PARK TO 3 MILES NORTH OF LIBERTY TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF NORRIS TO REED CREEK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  SANDY SPRINGS BY 125 AM EST.
  MARIETTA BY 135 AM EST.
  PIEDMONT BY 145 AM EST.
  WHITE HORSE ROAD AT I-85 BY 150 AM EST.
  MAULDIN BY 155 AM EST.
  PELHAM ROAD AT I-85 BY 200 AM EST.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

KRENTZ