Hail and Damaging Winds in North Carolina, August 5, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1010 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1000 AM WEDNESDAY...

PLENTY OF MORNING SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH FULL THICKNESS
POTENTIAL TODAY...MAINLY MID 90S WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER 90S
NORTHWEST WHERE THE CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER.

INSTABILITY WILL BE THROUGH THE ROOF...BUT WITH MEAGER UPPER SUPPORT
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE APPROACHES. AS
SUCH...ISOLD TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE...BUT CHANCES WILL BE
OBVIOUSLY A LITTLE BETTER IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ZONE IN PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER SHORT WAVE. ENTIRE AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT RISK TODAY...AND THE MORNING SOUNDING OUT OF GSO STRONGLY
SUPPORTS DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL WITH THETA-E DIFF OF 45C AND LAPSE
RATES >6C/KM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 212 AM WEDNESDAY...

TONIGHT...UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX/SHEAR AXIS GENERATED BY MIDWEST
CONVECTION WILL NUDGE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NC TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH THE
MOIST (850MB THETA-E MAXIMA OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING) AND
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (850-700MB LAPSE RATES 6.5-7.5 DEG
C/KM) TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN (BETTER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT). STORMS WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF FUEL TO FEED UPON AS MUCAPE VALUES VARY BETWEEN
800-1500 J/KG THROUGH 06Z THU. BULK SHEAR NOT SHABBY FOR EARLY
AUGUST (AROUND 25 KTS) SO STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS BUT NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT
DUE TO RATHER WEAK KINEMATICS. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LOCALLY
HEAVY/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FAIRLY DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW (SW)
AND SLOW EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF MID LEVEL TROUGH MAY LEAD TO
TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME LOCATION. DUE TO THE MOISTURE
RICH AIR MASS...THIS MAY LEAD TO HEAVY OR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY IN
URBANIZED AREAS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH/WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT EXPECT
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO OCCUR WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DUE TO
PRESENCE OF MID LEVEL TROUGH. MIN TEMPS NEAR 70 NW TO LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE.

THURSDAY...850-700MB TROUGH EDGES SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
THIS FEATURE PROGGED TO LIE ALONG OR JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 1 BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. DRIER DOWNSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THIS FEATURE SHOULD
LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE
TRIAD. FARTHER EAST...HEATING OF MOIST AIR MASS WILL YIELD MUCAPE
AROUND 1500 J/KG AND MLCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. THUS...EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT
AN INVERTED V SIGNATURE BY RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD ALOFT
SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGER STORMS MAY GENERATE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH.

MID LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EDGE FARTHER EAST THU NIGHT...ENDING
CONVECTIVE THREAT BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.
DRIER AIR WILL ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD CENTRAL NC SO EXPECTING
CLEARING SKIES FROM NW-SE OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER NW
THAN TONIGHT. MIN TEMPS MID/UPPER 60S NW TO LOWER 70S SE.

FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST TO THE NORTH OF CENTRAL NC.
THIS FEATURE WILL SPREAD DRIER MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS REGION.
ASIDE FROM A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU FIELD...AIR MASS APPEARS TO
DRY/STABLE TO GENERATE CONVECTION. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WITH FULL
SUN YIELD MAX TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE. WILL
SHADE MAX TEMPS TO THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY RETURNS AS
RETURN FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF RETREATING HIGH WILL ADVECT MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHEAR AXIS WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE
AREA AFTER SUNSET. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH THE INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH TO OUR NW...A SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS DROPPING E-SE IN
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO
GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON ND
EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. PARTIAL SUN
SATURDAY SHOULD PUMP MAX TEMPS BACK INTO THE 89-93 DEGREES RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM WEDNESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED TO LONG TERM FORECAST AS LATEST ECMWF AND GFS
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE GFS DEPICTING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CAROLINA VERSUS THE ECMWF WHICH HAS CORE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
TN VALLEY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN TOWARD THE ECMWF SO WILL FOLLOW
SUIT. IF THE GFS WERE TO VERIFY....MAX TEMPS NEAR THE CENTURY MARK
WOULD BE LIKELY SUN AND MON. OTHERWISE ECMWF POSITION OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE FAVORS EXTREME HEAT TO OUR WEST. CLOSER TO
HOME...OUT MAX TEMPS SHOULD REACH INTO THE MID 90S BOTH SUN AND MON.
BY TUESDAY...FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL S/W WILL CROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...FLATTENING AND SUPPRESSING  UPPER RIDGE. THIS SHOULD WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS TUE INTO WED WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM...

MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE EAST TODAY AS UPPER
SUPPORT DURING MAX HEATING WILL BE WEAK. IN THE WEST...CONVECTION
MAY BE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD DUE TO VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE PER THE PERSISTENT LEE SURFACE TROF IN THE
FOOTHILLS/WESTERN PIEDMONT AND AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE.
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH...AS THIS UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT...OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION WHICH MIGHT PRODUCE BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY IN RAIN. AREAS
WHICH RECEIVE A SHOWER MIGHT THEN SEE IFR RADIATION FOG TO REDEVELOP
IN THE PREDAWN HOURS. CHANCES FOR THUNDER LOOK SLIM OVERNIGHT...AND
TIMING WOULD BE QUESTIONABLE. AS SUCH...WILL NOT HAVE TSRA OR VCTS
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AS THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING OVER THE AREA...PERHAPS INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT
RWI/FAY.

A STRONG RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION AND
ENSURING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MLM
NEAR TERM...MLM
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...WSS
AVIATION...MLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-060930-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE-
JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON-
RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TODAY... MAINLY
IN THE WEST...AND MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE IS
NOT STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT SOME LOCATIONS MIGHT
HAVE STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
MINOR FLOODING ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE OR SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
115 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

NCZ083-051800-
ANSON-
115 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS ANSON COUNTY THROUGH 200 PM
EDT...

AT 114 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
MORVEN...OR ABOUT 7 MILES SOUTH OF WADESBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5
MPH. AREAS AROUND MORVEN WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST 2 PM.

GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN
BE EXPECTED. RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE HEAVY BRIEFLY. MOVE INDOORS WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE NEARBY OR OVERHEAD TO HELP AVOID THE DANGERS OF
LIGHTNING. DRIVERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
VISIBILITY DUE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN.

DJF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
122 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

NCZ075-076-051800-
LEE-MOORE-
122 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF LEE AND MOORE
COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

AT 121 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES
NORTH OF CARTHAGE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TRAMWAY...AND...GUM
SPRINGS.

GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. LIGHT OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH CANS
COULD BE BLOWN ABOUT. MOVE INDOORS WHEN STORMS MOVE NEARBY OR
OVERHEAD TO HELP AVOID THE DANGERS OF LIGHTNING. IF DRIVING IN HEAVY
RAIN...SLOW DOWN DUE TO POOR VISIBILITY AND PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS.

DJF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
131 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

NCZ041-042-077-051830-
HARNETT-JOHNSTON-WAKE-
131 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL HARNETT COUNTY
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN HARNETT AND SOUTHWESTERN
JOHNSTON COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 130 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
LILLINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...BUIES CREEK...COATS...AND...ANGIER...COATS
CROSSROADS. GUSTY WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND DANGEROUS
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

BLAES