Lightning Strike in North Carolina, August 19, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
241 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. GRADUAL
DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWFA THIS AFTERNOON...WITHIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
DEEP MOISTURE BAND. THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS
ALONG THE TENN BORDER...WITH COVERAGE DIMINISHING TO ISOLATED/
WIDELY SCATTERED IN THE PIEDMONT. EVENING POPS WILL BE INCREASED BY
ABOUT 10 PERCENT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WEST. STILL DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DUE TO
MOIST PROFILES/HIGH FREEZING LEVELS...BUT WOULDN/T RULE OUT A SEVERE
STORM OR TWO. WITH PWATS OF AROUND 2 INCHES...THE LARGER CONCERN
WILL REMAIN LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

WITH PWATS REMAINING HIGH WITHIN THE PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE
TONIGHT...COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...EXPECT REDUCTION OF COVERAGE TO ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED
BY MIDNIGHT OR SO. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE MTNS OF
NORTHEAST GA/SOUTHWEST NC...WHERE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD FORCE
SHOWERS WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AND
IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE SOME AUGMENTATION FROM WEAK IMPULSES MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...WE DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS
ABOUT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...AS HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD BE MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. LIKELY POPS WERE
INHERITED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THESE WILL
NOT BE ALTERED SIGNIFICANTLY...BUT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE LIKELY
POPS WILL BE TRIMMED SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVER THE
GREAT LAKES THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI AS THE ASSOCIATED LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS AMPLIFIES INTO THE MS RIVER VALLEY. SUBTLE TIMING DIFFERENCES
REMAIN...WITH THE GFS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE
OPERATIONAL NAM...AND THE FASTER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED VIA
CONSENSUS. THUS...THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION DIVERGENCE OF THE UPPER JETLET AND STRONGER DEEP
LAYER DPVA WILL ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS S TO SW FLOW TAPS INTO A MORE TROPICAL
MOISTURE SOURCE. WILL RAMP POPS UP TO SOLID LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA
BY PM FRI. VERY DEEP MOISTURE IN THE PROFILES SHOULD STRONGLY LIMIT
ANY SEVERE TSTM THREAT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING SE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY FRI WILL
THEN SETTLE INTO THE REGION FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT. GIVEN THE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN...WILL CLEAR POPS VERY SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH SAT NIGHT AS DRYING ENSUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...EXTENDED MODELS FEATURE FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN SLOWLY BRINGING THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEKEND...GENERALLY LEAVING SOME LINGERING TROUGHINESS ALONG
THE SRN APPALACHIANS INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...MUCH DRIER PROFILES WILL
BE IN PLACE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRES SHOULD BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST MORE STRONGLY LATE MON INTO WED. A SFC BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE WED. SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE MAY SNEAK
BACK IN FROM THE COAST TUE THROUGH WED UNDER THE RIDGE AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW TURNS SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE CLOUDS WITH
ATTENDANT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS ARE FIRING OVER THE MTNS
ATTM...WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OCCURRING ALONG THE TENN BORDER. ONE
OR TWO SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED NEAR KAVL THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WITH MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...IT
STANDS TO REASON THAT THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
EVENING. VCTS WILL BE CARRIED THERE UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. OTHER THAN
KAVL...KHKY STANDS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTION...AS WIDELY
SCATTERED ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE
AND MOVE EAST. VCSH WILL BE ADVERTISED THERE. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION
SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...SO A CB SHOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW.

SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WANE AS USUAL THIS EVENING...BUT ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MTNS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD
PREVENT ANY SUBSTANTIAL VISBY ISSUES TOMORROW MORNING...BUT CAN/T
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATOCU DEVELOPING AROUND/AFTER
SUNRISE...AS HAS OCCURRED THE PAST FEW MORNINGS.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CHANCES
FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL INCREASE THURSDAY...AND REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCES OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG WILL ALSO
EXIST.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-201945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
338 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. COVERAGE WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN A FEW AREAS. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
428 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

SCZ010-192100-
ANDERSON-
428 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ANDERSON COUNTY THROUGH 500 PM
EDT...

AT 427 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF SANDY SPRINGS...OR 8 MILES WEST
OF ANDERSON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SANDY
  SPRINGS...SADLERS CREEK STATE PARK AND ANDERSON.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
524 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

SCZ001-004-192200-
GREATER OCONEE-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
524 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTY
THROUGH 600 PM EDT...

AT 522 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LAKE HARTWELL...OR 14 MILES EAST OF
TOCCOA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LAKE
  HARTWELL...WESTMINSTER...WALHALLA...SENECA...OAKWAY AND FAIR PLAY.

HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
539 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

NCZ065-509-510-SCZ003-192215-
EASTERN POLK-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-POLK MOUNTAINS-
539 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN GREENVILLE...SOUTHERN
HENDERSON AND SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

AT 538 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF NORTH SALUDA RESERVOIR...OR
14 MILES SOUTH OF HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NORTH
  SALUDA RESERVOIR...TUXEDO...TRYON...SALUDA...EAST FLAT ROCK AND
  TIGERVILLE.

HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAILAND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
632 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

NCZ053-065-507-509-510-192300-
BUNCOMBE-EASTERN POLK-HENDERSON-POLK MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
632 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON...
NORTHWESTERN POLK...SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE AND WESTERN RUTHERFORD
COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 630 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BAT CAVE...OR 8 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CHIMNEY
  ROCK...FAIRVIEW...MOUNTAIN HOME...LAKE LURE...LAKE ADGER...DANA AND
  BAT CAVE.

HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

RB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
646 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

NCZ070-071-SCZ009-192315-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-YORK-
646 PM EDT WED AUG 19 2009

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT GASTON...NORTHERN YORK AND
WESTERN MECKLENBURG COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

AT 645 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GASTONIA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO STANLEY...
  RANLO...PAW CREEK...MOUNT HOLLY...MCADENVILLE...LUCIA...LOWELL...
  GASTONIA...DALLAS...CROWDERS...CRAMERTON...BESSEMER CITY...BELMONT
  AND CLOVER.

HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

RB