A moist and unstable atmosphere across Eastern North Carolina, along with a stalled surface trough and mid level shear axis, produced heavy rain over the Eastern Sandhills and Coastal Plain. The heavy rain produced several reports of flash flooding across the aforementioned area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A moist and unstable atmosphere across Eastern North Carolina, along with a stalled surface trough and mid level shear axis, produced heavy rain over the Eastern Sandhills and Coastal Plain. The heavy rain produced several reports of flash flooding across the aforementioned area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 14, 7:20 AM EST, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 820 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009 .SYNOPSIS... A STALLED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NORMAL. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 820 AM FRIDAY... QUICK UPDATE SENT TO CANCEL THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY... AS VISIBILITIES IN THE ADVISORY AREA HAVE RISEN TO GREATER THAN ONE MILE. PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A MILE ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BASED ON THE WEAK FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE... SO HAVE LEFT IT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. HAVE RAISED POPS AND MENTIONED HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA WHERE RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH MEANDERING HEAVY SHOWERS. -GIH EARLIER THOUGHTS AS OF 520 AM FRIDAY... SFC ANALYSIS THIS MORNING SHOWED A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. ALOFT...LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC MODEL DATA SHOW A STALLED UPPER LEVEL WAVE / SHEAR AXIS DIRECTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS/VA. A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS AND PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES HAS ALLOWED DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP IN PERSON/GRANVILLE/VANCE AND WARREN COUNTIES THIS MORNING. QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THOSE COUNTIES UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING. TODAY: A PERSISTENCE FORECAST MAY WORK REASONABLY WELL TODAY...GIVEN A VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO YESTERDAY. A PERSISTENCE FCST WOULD CONSIST OF CHANCE POPS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE EXTENDING WEST TO THE HWY 1 CORRIDOR...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE EAST AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE WEST. THE STALLED UPPER WAVE OVER THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER VERY CLOSE TO ITS CURRENT POSITION THIS AFT/EVE...AND THE BEST UPPER FORCING WOULD CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 TO 1/4 OF THE STATE. THAT IS ALSO WHERE THE BETTER LOW LEVEL FORCING WOULD BE LOCATED...IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED SFC TROUGH IN EASTERN NC/SC. AS SUCH...WOULD EXPECT THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY TO BE IN EASTERN NC ALONG/NEAR THE COAST. HAVE DECIDED TO SHOW HIGH CHANCE POPS (50%) IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE (INCLUDING THE WESTERN PIEDMONT). THE DECISION TO EXTEND THE SLIGHT CHANCE WEST THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS AS FOLLOWS. ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WILL BE CLOSER-TO (PERHAPS UNDERNEATH) THE SUBSIDENT BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER MID-LEVELS/MORE SUNSHINE...AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY A WEAK MID-LEVEL INVERSION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE DURING PEAK HEATING AT GSO (ASSUMING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S)...WHICH IS ABOUT TWICE THE INSTABILITY EXPECTED IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO THE PERVASIVE CLOUD COVER. WHILE I DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO INITIATE IN THE WEST THIS AFT DUE TO WEAK SFC RIDGING AND SOME SUBSIDENCE ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER WAVE...DUE TO THE EXPECTED MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000 J/KG...CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLD CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN AND MAKING ITS WAY WESTWARD INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT VIA 10-15 KT EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE LATEST 00Z SPC WRF SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT BEARS OUT THAT SCENARIO...WITH ISOLD CONVECTION MOVING WEST ACROSS THE TRIANGLE INTO THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BETWEEN 18-00Z. DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LITTLE THUNDER OUTSIDE THE FAR EASTERN COASTAL PLAIN YESTERDAY...BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS...HAVE NOW DECIDED TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF THUNDER EVERYWHERE IN TODAYS FCST... ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE A STRETCH IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. HIGHS TODAY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER...AND WILL FCST HIGHS RANGING FROM 82F FAR EAST TO 87F FAR WEST. TONIGHT: DUE TO THE LINGERING UPPER LEVEL WAVE...WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EAST/NE COASTAL PLAIN...ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN EXTREMELY POOR THERMODYNAMICS. EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NW PIEDMONT TO UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F IN THE EAST/SE. -VINCENT && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING...LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE DELMARVA DURING THE DAY SAT...ALTHOUGH A WEAK SHEAR AXIS ALOFT AND A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LESS SATURATION AND MORE SUNSHINE SAT...HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE A WEAK SUBSIDENCE INVERSION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTING NORTHEAST. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE SAT DURING PEAK HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA... WITH A DRY FORECAST IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT WHERE FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING/DRYING IN THE MID-LEVELS. HIGH TEMPS SAT EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90F. WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD INTO AND JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SAT NIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL NC. AS A RESULT...ANY OVERNIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED VERY NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST WHERE A WEAK SFC TROUGH MAY PERSIST. LOWS SAT NIGHT NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. -VINCENT && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 200 AM FRIDAY... A WEAK 500 MILLIBAR TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS FROM TENNESSEE EAST INTO ATLANTIC WATERS DURING THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL TROUGHING TO BE MOST INTENSE WEDNESDAY ROUGHLY ALONG HIGHWAY ONE. WILL PLACE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE PERIOD (ONE IN THREE) ON WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED OR SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES... MAINLY AFTERNOONS OTHERWISE. GIVEN RELATIVELY STATIC 1000 TO 850 MILLIBAR DIURNAL RANGES FOR THE PERIOD... TEMPERATURES WILL NOT VARY MUCH FROM CLIMATOLOGY. AFTERNOON HIGHS 86 TO 92 WITH MORNING LOWS 67 TO 72. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 820 AM FRIDAY... THIS MORNING: MVFR VSBYS IN FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLD HEAVY SHOWER AFFECTING THE FAY TAF SITE THIS MORNING EITHER. THIS AFT/EVE: A WEAKENING UPPER WAVE/SHEAR AXIS OVER THE CAROLINAS/VA WILL KEEP BROKEN VFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFT/EVE...WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS CLOUD COVER IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. BEST CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN ASSOC/W ISOLD/SCT SHOWERS/STORMS AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES (FAY/RWI). GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT LOCATION/COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE OMITTED ANY MENTION OF SUCH ACTIVITY IN THE 06Z TAFS. TONIGHT: A SATURATED OR NEAR SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER IS PROGGED AGAIN TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AGAIN IN THE EAST...SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. MOS GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VISBYS IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME SAT MORNING. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE...GIVEN THAT A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED ALONG THE OBX OR JUST OFF THE NC/VA COAST TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR CONDS WILL BE AFTER 06Z...SO WILL ONLY MENTION 6SM BR SCT005 BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT (04Z)...HOWEVER...LATER TAF ISSUANCES WILL LIKELY HAVE TO FURTHER DROP VISBYS/CEILINGS. LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN ASSOC/W FOG DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS (06-13Z). ISOLD CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE AFT/EVE HOURS...WITH THE RELATIVE BETTER CHANCE AT FAY/RWI. -VINCENT && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SYNOPSIS...VINCENT NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/VINCENT SHORT TERM...VINCENT LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...HARTFIELD/VINCENT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 828 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009 NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-151230- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE- ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-WAKE- JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-ANSON- RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 828 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. GIH
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 848 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009 NCZ075>077-085-086-088-089-141430- MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTHERN PINES...SANFORD...LILLINGTON... LAURINBURG...RAEFORD...FAYETTEVILLE...CLINTON 848 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2009 ...HEAVY RAIN TO AFFECT THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN THROUGH 1030 AM... AT 845 AM EDT... DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SCATTERED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO AFFECTED THESE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 1030 AM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECT BY THE HEAVY RAIN INCLUDE... FAYETTEVILLE... IVANHOE... LAURINBURG... PINEVIEW... AND SOUTHERN PINES. LOCATIONS THAT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ARE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUMBERLAND COUNTY AND SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY... WHERE UP TO 2 INCH OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR ARE POSSIBLE. MOTORIST ARE URGED TO DRIVE WITH EXTRA CAUTION THIS MORNING WHEN ENCOUNTERING THESE HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUDNERSTORMS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED. REMEMBER... TURN AROUND... DONT DROWN.
The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 68 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:41 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Ray Avenue in downtown Fayetteville, North Carolina was closed do to high water. Flash flooding was also reported along McArthur Road and at the intersection of East Russell Street and Dick Street.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2009Every state in 2009This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, August 2009
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 191778.