Hail and Damaging Wind in North Carolina, April 6, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
246 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AND
CROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIDE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY AS STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES. FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEAR MTNS AND IS EXPECTED TO REACH
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. MDLS ARE CONSISTENT SHOWING
IMPRESSIVE S/SW LOW LVL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL AID IN INCREASING LOW LVL
MOISTURE. ALL REGIONS WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR THIS MORNING AND SHLD
SEE TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH POSS A LITTLE SUNSHINE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE WARM SFC TEMPS COMBINED WITH DECENT MID
LVL LAPSE RATES WILL PRODUCE WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. SHLD
SEE ACTIVE CONVECTION DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WARM
UNSTABLE AIR. GIVEN IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS AND DECENT FORCING
AHEAD OF UPR TRF WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH THE 12Z
TO 18Z TIME FRAME LOOKING MOST FAVORABLE. WIND DIR BECOMES
UNIDIRECTIONAL LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND THAT
WOULD FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME LARGE HAIL GIVEN WET BULB ZERO
HGTS BELOW 10000 FT. THERE WILL BE SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR EARLY
AND ENOUGH SPEED SHEAR LATER TO POSS HAVE A ISOLD TORNADO AS WELL.
CONVECTION WILL END FROM W TO E THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS IN WAKE OF FRONT.

HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO MAINLAND HYDE AND DARE AS WELL
AS CARTERET COUNTIES. APPEARS SHLD HAVE DECENT MIXING IN THESE
AREAS TO HELP INCREASE SFC WINDS AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...CAA EXPECTED OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DECENT W WIND
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM REALLY DROPPING WITH LOWS MAINLY LOW TO MID
40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 OBX. ANOTHER SRT WAVE WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE REGION TUE. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH DECENT LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN SO
ADDED SLIGHT POP ALL AREAS TUE AFTN. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL KEEP
TEMPS COOL WITH AROUND 55 MOST SPOTS. SHLD HAVE ENOUGH OF A GRDNT
OVER REGION TO KEEP AT LEAST A LIGHT BREEZE GOING TUE NIGHT. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM PLUMMETING BUT WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
MANY MAINLAND SPOTS AROUND FREEZING. APPEARS BREEZE WILL LIMIT
FROST POTENTIAL HOWEVER A FREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AND LATER SHIFTS
CAN DECIDE ON POSS FREEZE WATCH FOR TUE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM MON...CONTINUED COOL WED AS UPR TRF LIFTS OUT...HIGH
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 50S MOST SPOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
RATHER QUICKLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HGTS RISE AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. APPEARS BEST RAIN CHC WILL BE LATER FRI INTO EARLY SAT AS
NEXT UPR TRF CROSSES...WITH DRY WX EXPECTED FOR EASTER SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINANT TODAY...AS MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ON STRENGTHENING S WINDS. SHOWERS AND TSRA
WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...THE WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG WITH
SUSTAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT. A
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 18-21Z...CLEARING
THE TSRA. SOME MID LVL CLOUDS WILL LINGER UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER
THE REGION FOR THE COMING DAYS ROTATING POCKETS OF ENERGY OVER THE
SE...THE FIRST ON TUE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME SPRINKLES. CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL KEEP WINDS UP THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK...SO
NOT EXPECTING FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG LL WINDS SHOWING UP IN AREA RADAR VAD PROFILES...BUT FOR
NOW NOT MUCH MIXING DOWN TO THE SFC ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE RAPIDLY THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W AND THE LL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. THE WARMING
COASTAL WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MIXING TO SUPPORT GALE FORCE
WINDS...PRIMARILY IN FREQUENT GUSTS. THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER NAM FCST
SHOWS A BIT MORE MIXING AFTER DAYBREAK THAN BEFORE...SO HAVE
BUMPED UP WINDS INLAND AS WELL JUST BELOW WIND ADV EXP FOR COASTAL
SECTIONS. THE LATER TIMING OF THE FRONT COUPLED WITH THE
STRENGTHENING LL JET (50+KT) SUPPORTS EVEN IN POOR MIXING
CONDITIONS WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION ALONG E
PORTIONS OF CARTERET/HYDE/DARE. IF CONVECTION IS AROUND...THEN ANY
AREA COULD SEE STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
40S...BUT THIS WILL BE HANDLED WITH SPS IF NECESSARY. SEAS WILL
RESPOND FAST TO THE INCREASE IN WINDS...WITH 7-10 FT...HIGHER NEAR
DIAMOND SHOALS AND THE OUTER WARMER S WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL
PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF...BUT FEEL IMPACT WILL NOT LEAD TO BEACH
EROSION OR BREAKERS HIGH ENOUGH FOR A HIGH SURF ADV...ESPECIALLY
SINCE PEAK SURF WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH TIDES. THE WINDS WILL ALSO
PILE WATER ALONG THE N OBX ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND INCLUDING
MANTEO WHERE WATER RISES COULD REACH 1-2FT ABV NORMAL...SAME FOR
THE W PORTIONS OF THE PAMLICO SOUND WHERE WATER LEVELS COULD FALL
TO LOW FLOWS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ALL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER STRONG CAA ON THE BACKSIDE WILL KEEP STRONG
WINDS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE CAA WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG
MIXING...ESP OVER THE WARMER WATERS...HOWEVER THE STRENGTH OF THE
LOW LL BOUNDARY WINDS IS COMING IN WEAKER WITH LATER MODEL RUNS SO
DONT THINK GALES WILL EXTEND MUCH INTO THE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
STRONG SCA LIKELY. THE UPPER LOW LINGER OVER THE NE FOR THE BETTER
PART OF THE WEEK...WITH POCKETS OF ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT WITH
WEAK SRF FRONTS INCREASING WINDS ON AND OFF THROUGH WED. OVERALL
DONT SEE CONDITIONS DROPPING BELOW SCA UNTIL WED AT THE EARLIEST.
THEN S FLOW RETURNS AHEAD OF ANOTHER S STREAM LOW ON FRI/SAT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR NCZ047-081-095-103-104.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     AMZ135-152-154-156-158.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ130-150.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...RF/CTC
AVIATION...SJ
MARINE...SJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
320 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

NCZ029-044>046-079-080-090>094-098-070730-
MARTIN-PITT-WASHINGTON-TYRRELL-GREENE-BEAUFORT-DUPLIN-LENOIR-JONES-
CRAVEN-PAMLICO-ONSLOW-
320 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT. FREEZE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ047-081-095-070730-
MAINLAND DARE-MAINLAND HYDE-CARTERET-
320 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND FREEZING TUESDAY
NIGHT INLAND FROM THE COAST. FREEZE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY EVENTUALLY
BE NEEDED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

NCZ103-104-070730-
OUTER BANKS DARE-OUTER BANKS HYDE-
320 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
THREATS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
901 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

NCZ047-081-103-104-061400-
EASTERN DARE-WESTERN DARE-WESTERN HYDE-EASTERN HYDE-
901 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HYDE AND DARE COUNTIES UNTIL 1000
AM EDT...

AT 901 AM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM HATTERAS TO 5
MILES SOUTHWEST OF ENGELHARD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR BUXTON AT 910 AM EDT...MANNS HARBOR AT 930
AM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE FRISCO.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON
AREA ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

10

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1048 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

NCZ090-091-061545-
DUPLIN-LENOIR-
1048 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LENOIR AND DUPLIN COUNTIES UNTIL
1145 AM EDT...

AT 1048 AM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19 MILES WEST
OF LA GRANGE TO 31 MILES WEST OF WARSAW...OR FROM 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MOUNT OLIVE TO 31 MILES WEST OF WARSAW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR WARSAW AT 1130 AM EDT.
OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE KINSTON.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON
AREA ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

10

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1112 AM EDT MON APR 06 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1054 AM     HAIL             2 N FARMVILLE           35.62N 77.59W
04/06/2009  E0.50 INCH       PITT               NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1/2 INCH HAIL REPORTED JUST NORTH OF FARMVILLE.

&&

MWILLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1117 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

NCZ029-044-045-080-081-061615-
WASHINGTON-MARTIN-PITT-BEAUFORT-WESTERN HYDE-
1117 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT HYDE...BEAUFORT...PITT...MARTIN
AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM EDT...

AT 1117 AM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS 11 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF WILLIAMSTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NEAR WILLIAMSTON AT 1130 AM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE STORMS INCLUDE PLYMOUTH...ROBERSONVILLE...HINSON...
HOUSE...JAMESVILLE...MACKEYS...OLD FORD...PACTOLUS...PIKE ROAD...
PUNGO...SMITHWICK...STOKES...TERRA CEIA...WENONA...WESTOVER...
PINETOWN...STATON...SLATESTONE AND WALLA WATTA.

WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1118 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

NCZ044-079-080-091-061615-
LENOIR-GREENE-PITT-BEAUFORT-
1118 AM EDT MON APR 6 2009

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT BEAUFORT...PITT...GREENE AND
LENOIR COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM EDT...

AT 1117 AM EDT...THERE WERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10 MILES
NORTHEAST OF LA GRANGE TO 10 MILES WEST OF LA GRANGE...OR FROM 10
MILES NORTHEAST OF LA GRANGE TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF GOLDSBORO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR LA GRANGE
AT 1130 AM EDT...WINTERVILLE AT 1155 AM EDT...AYDEN AT NOON EDT..

WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN ON
AREA ROADWAYS TO AVOID HYDROPLANING. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING AN
EXCESSIVE AMOUNT OF DEADLY LIGHTNING.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER UPDATES ON THE WEATHER SITUATION ACROSS THE AREA.

10