Flash Flood and Lightning Strike in New Mexico, July 4, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
256 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...ACTIVE CONVECTION ONGOING STATEWIDE...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE JEMEZ MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE NOW EXPANDING RAPIDLY OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS...WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SACRAMENTO AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
SPC CONTINUING SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BROADLY NORTH
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM RATON TO TUCUMCARI. ON THE CHARTS...BROAD
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. DOWNSTAIRS...COLD FRONT
SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS HAS REACHED A SOCORRO
TO ROSWELL LINE...WITH WIND SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST NORTH
OF THE FRONT PROVIDING SOME UPSLOPE HELP FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

MODELS...REASONABLE CONSENSUS AND PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION MAINTAINS
BROAD ZONAL RIDGE ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH MIDWEEK...WITH TROUGH
DIGGING SOUTHWARD DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VEERING FLOW ALOFT
TO NORTHWEST OVER NEW MEXICO AS THE WORK WEEK GETS UNDERWAY. BY
MIDWEEK...RIDGE CORE DEVELOPING OVER THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND PUT BRAKES ON NORTHWARD
MOISTURE SURGE. RIDGE CORE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO FOR LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK NOW APPEARS TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR WARM UP...AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WORKING WITH
RECYCLED MOISTURE INITIATING ON SLOPES AND MOVING SLOWLY TO
VALLEYS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...COLD FRONT STALLING OVER
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE EAST PROVIDING
CONTINUED UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE EVENING...WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPANDING TO THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD TURN
SEVERE...WITH DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL PUSHING INTO LARGER SIZES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...LACK OF STEERING FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER AND EXPAND OVER INITIATION
POINTS...AND WILL EXPECT A BUSY NIGHT FOR THE HYDROLOGY DEPARTMENT
OVERNIGHT.

INTO SUNDAY...ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY ON TAP...WITH SLIGHT
RISK CONTINUING FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO IN ZONE
OF MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH CONTINUED WEAK COOL
ADVECTION PRESSING SOUTH AND WEST. TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD TO THE
EAST OF THE STATE WILL BACK FLOW ALOFT TO THE
NORTHWEST...PROVIDING VERTICAL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO
EASTERN NEW MEXICO COLUMN AND SUPPORTING STRONGER VERTICAL
DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...CONTINUING NORTHBOUND
MOISTURE PENETRATION INTO THE STATE WILL PROLONG LOCAL FLASH
FLOODING WOE TO WRAP UP THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ESSENTIALLY STATEWIDE.

INTO MONDAY...FLOW ALOFT VEERED TO NORTHWEST UP AND OVER
DEVELOPING RIDGE CORE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE STATE WILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
RIDGE ALOFT WILL RATCHET DOWN NORTHBOUND MOISTURE ADVECTION..AND
LEAVE DEVELOPING CONVECTION RECYCLED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
EXPECTING DOWNTICK IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE...BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT SOME LOCAL FLASH FLOODING
CONCERN FOR SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. CONTINUED SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTHEAST END OF THE STATE.

INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES FINALLY WARMING BACK UP TO NORMAL
LEVELS TUESDAY WITH SOME DRYING WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS RIDGE CORE EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING OVER EASTERN BORDER OF THE STATE
WILL PROVIDE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH INITIATION ON SLOPES NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN IN GENTLE WEST FLOW.

LONGER TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...RIDGE FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
STATEWIDE...WITH CONVECTION WORK CUT OUT TO PUSH THROUGH BROAD
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. TEMPERATURE TRENDS WILL LEVEL OUT FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME EASTWARD CREEP
OF THE RIDGE CORE...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REOPEN THE NORTHBOUND
MOISTURE TAP AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

SHY

&&

.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE SOUTH AND WEST INTO TONIGHT WITH
WEAK TO MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH CIGS TO 025 AND VSBYS TO 3SM ARE POSSIBLE
NEXT 24 HOURS IN STORMS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS MAY OCCUR AS WELL
WITH ANY STORM.

NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 09Z. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS WORKED INTO THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF NM TODAY
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FRESH
SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. DEWPOINTS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S
THROUGH TONIGHT. WETTING RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER A MAJORITY OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL REBUILD TO THE WEST OF THE STATE SUNDAY
AND BUILD OVER NM THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW INTO THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE STATE WILL ADVECT DRIER AIR ALREADY
ORGANIZING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. MODELS INDICATE TEMPS WILL RETURN
TO SEASONAL NORMALS OR HIGHER WITH WIDESPREAD 90S ACROSS THE WEST.
MIN RH VALUES DOWN IN THE TEENS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON FROM
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY IN THIS AREA. THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. RH RECOVERIES WILL STILL BE GOOD ACROSS THE
EAST.

THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH MAY WOBBLE SLIGHTLY EAST
INTO TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN THIRD. MODELS ALSO AGREE BY NEXT WEEKEND THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE WEST AGAIN OVER NM WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND
SUPPRESSING WETTING RAINFALL TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CHJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  61  93  61  95 /  10   5   5   0
GALLUP..........................  55  87  54  90 /  10  10   5   5
GRANTS..........................  55  86  55  89 /  20  20   5  10
GLENWOOD........................  63  94  62  97 /  20  20  10  10
CHAMA...........................  47  79  47  82 /  30  30  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  82  55  84 /  30  30  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  43  73  42  75 /  30  50  20  20
TAOS............................  51  83  51  85 /  20  40  20  20
SANTA FE........................  57  85  56  87 /  30  30  20  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  86  57  89 /  20  30  20  20
ESPANOLA........................  58  89  56  93 /  20  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  88  66  92 /  20  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  90  63  93 /  20  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  86  61  89 /  20  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  89  63  93 /  20  20  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  63  90  63  94 /  20  20  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  55  79  51  83 /  20  30  20  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  87  55  88 /  30  30  20  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  87  59  90 /  30  40  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  54  79  51  81 /  50  50  30  20
RATON...........................  55  81  52  86 /  40  40  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  53  79  51  84 /  30  50  30  20
ROY.............................  59  81  59  84 /  40  40  20  20
CLAYTON.........................  61  83  60  88 /  60  60  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  61  88  60  91 /  30  30  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  87  64  93 /  30  40  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  89  65  91 /  40  30  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  64  85  63  90 /  40  30  20  10
PORTALES........................  66  88  66  93 /  40  40  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  91  69  95 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

SHY/40

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1129 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

NMZ001>021-026-051200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
1129 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM RATON TO TUCUMCARI. THIS INCLUDES
UNION COUNTY...AND PORTIONS OF COLFAX...HARDING...AND QUAY
COUNTIES. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL ARE POSSIBLE AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SLIGHT RISK.

ELSEWHERE...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE REMAINDER OF NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF NEW MEXICO. LARGE HAIL
ND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH
AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...
WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DUE TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALL
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WINDS...WIND
IMPACTS...HAIL...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ABQ...OR TOLL
FREE AT 1.888.386.7637.

SHY