NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 11, 8:11 PM EST, 4 hours 34 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 11, 8:11 PM EST, 4 hours 34 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
911 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS OUR AREA LATE TONIGHT, THEN STALL TO THE
SOUTH. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY WILL TRY TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
AFTER THAT, ALTHOUGH A BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL USHER IN
SECONDARY SURFACE BOUNDARIES DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
WE HAVE DECIDED TO LOWER POPS A LITTLE FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY FOR THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA AND
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE,
AND AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT IS STILL PRETTY FAR TO OUR WEST, SO IT
WILL NOT MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA UNTIL THE MORNING HOURS.
DUE TO THE FACT WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH, WE DECIDED TO KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR ALL AREAS, BUT THE BEST CHANCE, ESPECIALLY
EARLY, FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR IS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA
AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 1.5
INCHES, SOME STORMS COULD CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD
FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO
LOW TEMPERATURES BECAUSE AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION,
IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT, SO WILL
KEEP THE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ACCORDING TO THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF, THIS PERIOD FEATURES A
RELATIVE PAUCITY OF MOISTURE FOR THE ENERGY ALOFT AND BOUNDARIES
NEAR THE SURFACE TO WORK WITH. THE NAM SEEMS TO BRING MORE
MOISTURE WITH A LATE SUNDAY NIGHT /FAR NORTHWEST/ TO MONDAY NIGHT
/SOUTHEAST/ BOUNDARY. AT FIRST BLUSH, IF WE WERE TO ASSIGN ANY
POPS DURING THIS PERIOD, THEY WOULD BE UP NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN FURTHER DOWN SOUTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ONE CAN SEE
REASONS TO DO ALL THIS, BUT THE 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF SEEM TOO DRY TO
START GRABBING ONTO THE HIGHER STAT POP GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME. THE
NOW CUSTOMARY POSITION OF ANY COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH OUR
AREA THESE DAYS, I.E., STALLED TO THE SOUTH, MIGHT JUSTIFY
SOMETHING SOUTH FOR MONDAY NIGHT, BUT WE WILL TAKE A PASS THIS
FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SOME CATABATIC EFFECT, AND
WE DO NOT DRAW MUCH OF A DISTINCTION BETWEEN INLAND AND COASTAL
MAXES. SOME RADIATING SHOULD OCCUR TOMORROW NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THIS
IS NOT THE OPTIMUM TIME OF YEAR FOR IT. WE LEANED AGAINST THE
COLDER MAV TEMPS FOR NOW. WE LEANED ON A BLEND OF GUIDANCE,
CONTINUITY AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE SAKE OF A LITTLE VARIETY, THE LONG TERM FEATURES A TRANSIENT
MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY PERIOD,
BUT IT IS BOUNDED QUITE NICELY BY OUR STEADFAST EASTERN NORTH
AMERICAN TROUGH. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CARRY WITH IT A SURFACE
WARM FRONT THAT MAY BRING SOME ACTIVITY WITH IT IN THE LATE
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THEN, AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
ESTABLISHES ITSELF YET AGAIN, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE AREA BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE
WONT TO DEVELOP ALONG SLOW MOVING COLD FRONTS, AND WHETHER THAT
HAPPENS NEAR THE END OF THE LONG TERM IS SOMETHING WE WILL WATCH.
IT WOULD EXTEND IN TIME ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT,
ESPECIALLY DOWN SOUTH. TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONG TERM ARE
EXPECTED TO START NEAR OR A BIT BELOW NORMAL, BRIEFLY RISE TO
ABOVE NORMAL AND THEN DROP BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERALL ACROSS THE TAF
SITES, EXCEPT PERHAPS SOME MVFR /MAYBE IFR?/ CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MOST LIKLEY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT OBSTRUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY OR LOWERING
CEILINGS WILL BE ABE AND RDG. IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST, IF NOT
ALL OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER WITH BY 12Z SUNDAY. A SOUTHERLY
WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND WILL GUST A BIT AT SOME
TERMINALS. IF STORMS CAN BE MAINTAINED AS THEY MOVE ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE AREA, THERE COULD BE LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ENOUGH DRYING WORKS IN WHERE
THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OR DISSIPATE BUT THERE COULD BE
A LITTLE BIT OF CIRRUS AND CUMULUS ON SUNDAY, WITH A NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WIND.
OUTLOOK...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVING
NEARBY LATER MONDAY MAY TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. AS THE HIGH
MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA THEN TO THE EAST, A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
WORK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
WITH A DEFINED WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE MODEL WIND
FIELDS INDICATE SPEEDS OF ABOUT 25 TO 30 KNOTS NOT TO FAR ABOVE THE
SURFACE. THE THERMAL PROFILE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY TEND TO HOLD THE
HIGHER WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. IT MAY END UP BEING MORE MARGINAL,
HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE MET
DURING THE NIGHT FOR A TIME BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ON DELAWARE
BAY, A SOUTHERLY WIND MAY BE TOUGH TO GET SPEEDS UP TO 25 KNOTS
/GUSTS/, BUT SOME MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ENOUGH WIND JUST ABOUT
THE SURFACE TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL THERE. SINCE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HEADLINE WAS ALREADY ISSUED, WE OPTED TO LEAVE IT AS
IS. WE WILL ADJUST THE GUSTS ON THE BAY TO TOP OUT AT 25 KNOTS AT
TIMES TONIGHT AS WE DID NOT WANT TO TAKE THE ADVISORY DOWN THEN HAVE
TO HAVE THE EVENING SHIFT PUT IT BACK IN UP. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL TEND TO BUILD THE SEAS TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT. THERE IS A DECENT SOUTHERLY FETCH
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER, THEN THIS
WOULD PROLONG IT. AS A RESULT, WE WILL TOP SEAS AT 5 FEET ON THE
OCEAN WITH SOME 3-FOOTERS GETTING INTO THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY.
ONCE THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING, THE
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND WITH THE FLOW BECOMING OFFSHORE, THE SEAS
WILL TEND TO SUBSIDE WITH THE HIGHER SETS BEING PUSHED FARTHER OUT.
THEREFORE AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WE WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY UNTIL 12Z
SUNDAY. IF THE SEAS HOLD UP LONGER, LATER SHIFTS CAN ALWAYS EXTEND
THE ADVISORY A LITTLE LONGER. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK WEATHER
DISTURBANCE MOVING NEARBY LATER MONDAY MAY TOUCH OFF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER. AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA THEN TO THE EAST, A WARM
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WORK NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
POSSIBLY SOME INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDINGS SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
&&
SYNOPSIS...DELISI
NEAR TERM...DELISI/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...DELISI
AVIATION...GORSE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GORSE