NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 20, 3:01 PM EST, 4 hours 39 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 20, 3:01 PM EST, 4 hours 39 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER INDIANA WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, PUSHING AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT. AN INTENSE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH AND HANG AROUND THROUGH
SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND THEN CROSS THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A TRICKY FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE MOVED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A PRETTY GOOD RAIN
SHIELD. HOWEVER, THE AREA BEHIND THIS FIRST WAVE HAS A DEFINED DRY
SLOT AND ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS REMAIN QUITE HIGH, THERE HAS BEEN A
LACK OF FILLING ON THE RADAR. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES SOME
STORMS WILL DEVELOP, INITIALLY WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTH IN NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA. SHOULD ANY OF THESE STORMS MAKE
THEIR WAY TO OUR AREA, WE COULD SEE SOME HAIL AND POSSIBLY SOME
GUSTY WINDS. THESE STORMS ARENT LIKELY TO REACH THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF OUR AREA UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS DO REMAIN UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS STATED IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH OVERNIGHT, HOLDING STEADY OR
WARMING SLIGHTLY IN SOME SPOTS. ALONG WITH ANY FOG THAT FORMS, IT
MAY LIMIT HOW COOL IT IS OVERNIGHT GIVING US A WARMER STARTING
POINT IN THE MORNING. WE HAVE TRENDED THE TEMPERATURES WITH THE
LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH LOOKED FAIRLY REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
ROTATES THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE REGION AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES OUR AREA. THE REGION IS IN
AN AREAS OF SEE TEXT IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER. WE WILL MONITOR ANY CHANGES IN THIS OUTLOOK
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST SHIFTS.
TEMPERATURES WERE TRICKY AGAIN AS HOW WARM IT GETS WILL DEPEND ON
HOW FAR THE WARM FRONT MAKES IT THROUGH THE REGION AND HOW LONG
THE FOG HANGS AROUND IN THE MORNING. OPTIMISTICALLY THE WARM AIR
SHOULD GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE SO THAT
TEMPERATURES CAN RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWERS 70S ACROSS A
GOOD PART OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY SEES THE UPPER TROUGH AND ANY LINGERING SHORTWAVES PUSH
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS, FINALLY STARTING TO
BREAK US OUT OF THE SHOWERY PATTERN WE GET STUCK IN. IT STILL
TAKES SOME TIME TO GET OUT OF HERE AND WE WONT SEE MUCH RELIEF
UNTIL WE GET CLOSER TO THURSDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGION BRINGING DRIER AND
CONSIDERABLY WARMER CONDITIONS. THE HIGH WILL START TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAKES IT LONG AWAITED EXIT. THE
HIGH THEN SLOWLY MAKES IT WAY EASTWARD,SETTLING OFFSHORE BY
SATURDAY.
THE AIR MASS MODIFIES RATHER QUICKLY AND TEMPERATURES RESPOND IN
KIND. WITH THE TEMPERATURES INCREASING EACH DAY IT WOULD NOT BE
FAR FETCHED TO SEE MID 80S OR CLOSE TO 90 BY SATURDAY. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A VERY WARM AIRMASS, EVEN WARMER THAN THE ONE
WE HAD THIS PAST WEEKEND WHEN TEMPERATURES MANAGED TO REACH INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. 850MB
TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM AROUND +2-4C ON THURSDAY TO AROUND
+14-16C ON SATURDAY. WE DECIDED TO GO ABOVE GUIDANCE /BUT BELOW
THE AFOREMENTIONED TEMPS/ AND HAVE PUT LOWER 80S INTO THE FORECAST
NEARLY THE ENTIRE REGION, THE POCONOS AND NW NJ WILL REMAIN
COOLER. ALL IN ALL, IT WILL FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE SUMMER THAN
SPRING, FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH SUNDAY BEING SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR APRIL, THE MAJORITY OF RECORDS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S OR
LOWER 90S BY THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WITH THE CONSIDERABLE WARMTH COMES SOME FORM OF INSTABILITY DUE TO
SURFACE HEATING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THE MOMENT AS TO
ANY TYPE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS AND WE HAVE REFRAINED
FROM PUTTING THEM IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL, THIS PERIOD WILL BE A DRY, WARM ONE UNTIL THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
CIGS HAVE COME TO IFR NE MD BUT MVFR CIGS CONTINUED AT MOST OTHER
SITES, WHILE CIGS AROUND 4 THSD FT WERE STILL OBS AT ABE. HOWEVER,
WITH THE RAIN NOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA, CIGS SHOULD COME DOWN TO
MVFR ALL AREAS AND SLOWLY DROP TO IFR THIS EVENING. THE HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL FALL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THE PCPN WILL GET LIGHTER.
HOWEVER, AS THIS HAPPENS, MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR WILL
ADVECT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE DRIZZLE TO FORM AND
SOME LIGHT FOG INITIALLY, BUT TONIGHT, THE DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND CIG/VSBY SHOULD LOWER TO IFR WITH SOME
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BETWEEN 14 AND 15Z ON TUESDAY,
CONDITIONS AGAIN IMPROVED TO VFR OR MVFR AS THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH MIXING.
SOME TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND EVENING, MAINLY TO THE S
OF PHL. IF THEY DO FORM, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
IN ANY TSTMS.
OUTLOOK...THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND IN THE
AFTN/EVENING HRS, TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. IF TSTMS FORM, SMALL
HAIL IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
THE OVERALL TREND IS TOWARD LIGHTER WINDS TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WINDS
WERE STILL GUSTY OVER ALL THE WATERS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS EXPECTED
OVER THE NJ WATERS NORTH OF GREAT EGG INLET AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. OVER THE REST OF THE WATERS, SCA WERE
ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING, AS GUST WINDS OVER 25 KTS SHOULD CONTINUE
BEFORE DISSIPATING BELOW 25 KT.
MEANWHILE, AN ONSHORE FETCH WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, KEEPING ROUGH
SEAS ON THE OCEAN, EVEN AFTER THE WINDS DECREASE.
LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA EARLY TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE LOW AND FRONT.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE,
BUT THIS IS NOT A WARM S TO SW FLOW, RATHER IT IS RELATED TO THE
BROAD CIRCULATION AROUND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
WITHIN THIS FLOW ARE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES AND SURFACE TROUGHS.
THESE DISTURBANCES COULD CAUSE SHOWERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME
TSTMS POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE AFTN/EVENING HRS. ANY TSTMS MIGHT
EVEN HAVE SOME SMALL HAIL. ALTHOUGH WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE BELOW
SCA CRITERIA, SOME 25 KT WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.
DRY RETURNS ON THURSDAY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE OCEAN SOME 5 FT
SEAS COULD LINGER INTO THURSDAY DUE TO GUSTY WEST WINDS. BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS THE FLOW BECOME SW
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE REGION ALLOWING FOR MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450>453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ454-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431.
&&
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...STAUBER
MARINE...STAUBER