Hail and Damaging Wind in Nebraska, March 23, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
355 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MANY CHANGES IN THINKING FROM THIS MORNINGS AFD...WITH RESPECT
TO THE FORECAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT AND ALONG THE DRY LINE
ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. AS UPPER WAVE LIFTS N
THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE MO RIVER VALLEY.
STRONG VEERING IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG THE MO VALLEY SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES. HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS WITH
HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. MAINLY EXPECTING QUARTER SIZED HAIL
OR LESS AND WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 70 MPH WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. SEVERE THREAT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS STORMS
CONTINUE NWRD. THREAT RAPIDLY DECREASES N OF I 90 AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 75. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING
SOUTH OF I90...MAINLY IN SE SD ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY SHOULD STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.
EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
HAVE BEEN MARGINAL AT BEST FOR AN ADVISORY TO THIS POINT...BUT
CONCERN IS WITH SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL COOLING AND PRECIPITATION COOLING
BRINGING STRONG LLJ TO THE SFC THIS EVENING.

TWO MAIN CHANGES TO PREV FCST WAS TO UP THE POPS WITH WRAPAROUND
PRECIP EXCPD FURTHER SE IN CWA TUE AFTN...AND TO UP THE POPS SOME
MORE IN THE EXTD. STG UPR LOW WILL DUMBELL AROUND CWA TUE WITH RAIN
MIXING WITH OR CHGG TO WET SNOW WRN CWA...AND A COUPLE OF INCHES
ARE QUITE PSBL ESP IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS FM WEST OF HURON TO ABV
CHAMBERLAIN TO GREGORY COUNTY. BRISK SLY WINDS ERN CWA WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO STG WNWLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR TO THE WEST OF TROF.
WRAPAROUND -SHRA CHGG TO -SHSN PULLING OFF THE NEWD THRU NRN CWA
TUE NGT WITH STG NWLY FLOW OF COLDER AIR IN THE CWA. WED A NICE
TRANSITION DAY WITH MIXED OUT AND MILDER WLY FLOW. NAM GUID TOO
COLD. THEN MODELS STILL HAVE MAJOR CONTINUITY ISSUES FROM THURSDAY
THRU THE WEEKEND. 12Z RUNS BACK TO THE SE BIAS...BUT NO REASON TO
THINK LATER RUNS WILL NOT GO BACK TO THE NW TRACK WITH TIME...SO
KEPT DECENT POPS IN THE SERN HLF CWA. FIRST OF WAVE OF MIXED PRECIP
SHOULD STILL MOVE ENEWD INTO CWA LATE WED NGT THRU THU NGT...BUT
THEN ITS A QUESTION OF WAITING FOR MAIN UPR LOW TO EJECT NEWD OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS. EITHER WAY...IT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUID.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL AND SFC LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER WRN NEBRASKA
TO LIFT INTO NE SD LATE TONIGHT. STRONG SFC GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE S THIS
EVENING...TO THE WEST LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE MISSOURI VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON INTO SW MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL...ESPECIALLY INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY. OTHERWISE MAINLY IFR TO
VFR ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
     020>022-031-032.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR MNZ072-080-081-089-
     090-097-098.
NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR NEZ013-014.
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR SDZ062-066-067-
     069>071.
&&

LIEBL/RYRHOLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1115 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-241200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1115 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I 90 IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA....EXTREME NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST IOWA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOULD STORMS DEVELOP...THEY MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH AND 60
MPH WINDS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH
THESE STORMS.

FLOODING...
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH EXPECTED
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ACROSS MANY OF
THE AREA RIVERS.  MINOR FLOODING WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE BIG SIOUX
RIVER BASIN FROM BRUCE DOWN TO NEAR AKRON. ADDITIONAL MINOR FLOODING
IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER BASIN FROM HURON TO
MITCHELL...AND ALONG THE LITTLE SIOUX NEAR SPENCER.

WINTER WEATHER...
RAIN MAY MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW NEAR IN CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BRULE AND GREGORY COUNTIES.
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS.

WIND...
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST IOWA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW COULD CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING WET SNOW FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
IOWA. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME...HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM CARRIES THE POTENTIAL OF CREATING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 3 PM TODAY.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

97

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
143 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             2 NE CLAYTON            43.46N 97.63W
03/22/2009  E0.75 INCH       HUTCHINSON         SD   PUBLIC

&&

JCHAPMAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
428 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW SPRINGFIELD        42.81N 97.95W
03/23/2009                   BON HOMME          SD   PUBLIC

            STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WINDS DESTROYED A GARAGE 4 MILES
            SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD.

&&

MBUSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
446 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     HAIL             1 W AVON                43.01N 98.08W
03/23/2009  M0.75 INCH       BON HOMME          SD   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MBUSS