Hail and Damaging Winds in Nebraska, June 24, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
307 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL
BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT ARE DRIFTING TO THE
SOUTH FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THESE OUTFLOWS SEEM TO HAVE PUSHED THE WEAK BOUNDARY
THAT WAS IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO THE SOUTH. IN ADDITION...THE CLOUDS
ARE CREATING A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY AS WELL. THERE ARE A
FEW LITTLE SHOWERS DEVELOPING CURRENTLY...BUT THEY ARE NOT GROWING
RAPIDLY AND EXPECT THAT WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS START TO GO THEY
SHOULD HAVE FAIRLY RAPID DEVELOPMENT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE NEBRASKA PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WEAKENS
LATER TONIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL
PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL FETCH OF MOISTURE TO THE WEST AND KEEP THE AREA
DRY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. BUT THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES UP AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 100 IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S THE HEAT INDICES WILL RISE TO 100 TO 105 FOR THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THAT WILL WAIT BEFORE
ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WHEN
TRENDS SHOWED COOLER WEATHER BEGINNING SATURDAY...TODAYS TRENDS
CLEARLY SHOW A MUCH DRIER EXTENDED FORECAST.

FRIDAY...A HOT ONE ACROSS THE CWFA WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT A POSSIBLE SURGE OF DRIER AIR COMING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT ANY RATE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL FRIDAY AND IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE WATCH POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. PULLED STORM CHANCE
DURING THE DAY...ALTHOUGH A HIGH BASED STORM IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE DRY SURGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE SATURDAY DURING THE DAY. COULD BE A DECENT TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT SATURDAY...AS THE FAR SOUTH WILL STILL REACH THE 90S
BUT THE NORTH WILL BE MUCH COLDER. CONTINUED WITH THE SMALL RISK
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

MODEL VIEWPOINT OF THE FRONT IS MORE AGGRESSIVE...WITH THE NAM
DEPICTING 5MB PRESSURE RISES COMING THROUGH SATURDAY. IN FACT...
THE GFS AND NEW ECMWF BOTH PUSH THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS BY SUNDAY...AND PUT THE REGION IN A COOLER
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW. HAVE REMOVED MANY OF THE STORM
CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED...LEAVING ONLY MONDAY EVENING...WHICH LOOKS
IFFY RIGHT NOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SETTLE BACK TO AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009/

AVIATION...18ZS TAF. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A BOUNDARY THAT HAS SLIPPED TO THE SOUTH OF
KGRI TERMINAL. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS GET GOING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECT THEM TO MOVE TO THE NORTH. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
THIS EVENING...BUT THERE MAY BE SOME DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ONCE THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
324 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
251200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
324 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS TO 60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ACROSS THE
OUTLOOK AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE 90S BOTH DAYS AND HEAT INDICES MAY AGAIN REACH 100 TO
105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)