Showers and a few thunderstorms developed along a slow moving cold front. This produced heavy rainfall causing some flash flooding in central Missouri.
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The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
Showers and a few thunderstorms developed along a slow moving cold front. This produced heavy rainfall causing some flash flooding in central Missouri.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 15, 11:49 AM CST, 11 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1149 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2009 .DISCUSSION... /152 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2009/ MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HONE IN ON UPPER LOW EVOLUTION AND TRACK WITH A COMPLETELY CUT-OFF AND SLOWER SOLUTION DEPICTED. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH A WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL REISSUE THE ESF FOR THE POTENTIAL OF RENEWED RIVER FLOODING. COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT TO A KFAM...KSAR...KSLO LINE AS OF 1 AM AND SLOWED TO A SNAILS PACE...IF NOT COMPLETELY STALLED. A NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY TO JUST NORTH OF QUINCY ILLINOIS. I EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND SOLIDIFY INTO A RAIN SHIELD THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED FRONTOGENESIS AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE TRIED TO DEPICT THE TIGHT POP GRADIENT THAT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION OF CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS ST. LOUIS AREA MAY ONLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN RAIN SHIELD OVERSPREADS THE METRO. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL OCCLUDE...WRAPPING BACK UNDER THE UPPER LOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A COMPLETELY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED ACROSS MISSOURI BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY. MINIMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. CVKING && .AVIATION... /1142 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2009/ FOR THE 18Z TAFS... RAIN AND IFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ONCE CONDITIONS GO DOWN...IT LOOKS LIKE WELL SEE IFR...AND POTENTIALLY LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MIDWEEK. NOT SURE WELL SEE MUCH MORE THAN A TEMPORARY BREAK UNTIL THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS CAUSING THIS WEATHER EJECTS NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. CARNEY && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && WFO LSX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 856 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2009 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-161115- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS- SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE- CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN- ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON- ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS- 856 AM CST SUN NOV 15 2009 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI THIS MORNING. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK PRODUCT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS. MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY A PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN TO CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. SEE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK PRODUCT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS. MODERATE FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. && FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1 CARNEY
The St Louis radar (KLSX), 117 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:59 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Between 2 and 3 inches of rain fell in a short amount of time on saturated soils causing flash flooding. Numerous roads were closed including Highway 94 near Mokane and Van Horn Boulevard in Holts Summit.
Between 2 and 3 inches of rain fell in a short amount of time on already saturated soils causing flash flooding. Numerous roads were flooded including Scrivner, Loesch and Bainer Roads.
Between 2 and 3 inches of rain fell in a short amount of time on already saturated soils causing flash flooding. Numerous roads were flooded including County Road 412 near Loose Creek and County Road 416 near Bonnots Mill.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2009Every state in 2009This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, November 2009
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 203393, 203395, 203396.