Flash Flooding in Missouri, May 25, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2009

.DISCUSSION...

A RATHER COMPLICATED SETUP WILL MAKE THE FORECAST TRICKY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO FINALLY PULL NORTH THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY AND A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN IMPACT THE REGION AS WE APPROACH MIDWEEK.
POPS WERE THEREFORE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN.

TONIGHT...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE
AS THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION...IS NOW
PULLING INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STILL
HAS SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...SUCH AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES UP TO OR EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES IN SOME CASES. THIS LOW
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PULL NORTH OVERNIGHT ENDING UP OVER OR JUST
EAST OF KANSAS CITY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS STREAM NORTH ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WERE PLACED
TONIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A BRIEF WEAK
TORNADO INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL HELICITIES REMAIN
ENHANCED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THAT UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT
GETS ABSORBED BY THE WESTERLIES. MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE ENERGY WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE
SHOULD TEND TO BE MORE LIMITED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY GIVEN
THE COLD FRONT AND WHAT STILL SHOULD BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
COVER. DID NOT STRAY ALL THAT FAR FROM MAV GUIDANCE.

LATE THIS WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL COMMENCE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...THAT FRONT
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES. THE MAIN STORM
TRACK WILL BE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SO THINK MOST OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE DRY...WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME BETTER DIGGING OF ENERGY ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
STARTING LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS REGIME MAY EVENTUALLY FAVOR A
FRONT SEEPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

SCHAUMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

PREVAILING IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AT THE JOPLIN
AND SPRINGFIELD TERMINALS AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS SATURATED
UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTING NORTH INTO THE OZARKS. THE
VISIBILITY WILL FLUCTUATE FROM IFR TO MVFR WITHIN AREAS OF RAIN.
LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT.

FOSTER/CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1211 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2009

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-261200-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1211 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
  POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
  NEAR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS AND WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS TRACK
  OVER THE SAME AREAS.

  THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES THIS
  AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF AN OSAGE BEACH TO WEST PLAINS LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY WITH ISOLATED TO
  SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

WFO SGF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
454 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2009

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0449 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S GRAVOIS MILLS       38.26N 92.83W
05/25/2009  E3.00 INCH       MORGAN             MO   PUBLIC

            OVER THREE INCHES OF RAIN IN 1 AND ONE HALF HOURS

&&

KARDELL