Hail and Damaging Wind in Missouri, July 23, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
327 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

.DISCUSSION...
/309 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009/
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SFC LOW NOTED OVER NRN MO AND SRN IA
THIS AFTN WITH AREA OF CONVERGENCE STRETCHING SE TOWARDS STL AND
MOISTURE POOLING IN NRN MO. WITH LOW DRIFTING SE AND 1000-2000 J/KG
OF CAPE AVAILABLE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW -TSRA
DEVELOP FROM THE CU FIELD SO INCLUDED ISOLATED MENTION FOR EARLY
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE TO COLD AIR DRAINAGE. SFC RIDGE SHIFTS E
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING SW BY FRI AFTN AND INCREASING AHEAD OF
APCHG CDFNT. FRI LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PD WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA /PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL CONTINUE DIVING SE...EVENTUALLY DRAGGING
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON SAT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF FROPA. ALTHOUGH 0Z AND 12Z ECMWF/6Z
AND 12Z GFS/6Z NAM/9Z SREF ALL IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON WHEN CDFNT
APCHGS MO/IA BORDER...DISAGREEMENTS REMAIN OVER HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES
THROUGH WITH THE SREF SUGGESTING CDFNT WILL STALL ALONG THE MO/AR
BORDER. PRECIP CHCS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SUN IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN FNTL MOVEMENT.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LARGE
SCALE PATTERN WITH CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN WRN CONUS RIDGE
AND ERN CONUS TROF. EXPECTING COOLER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY BEHIND
CDFNT WITH A BRIEF WARM UP ON TUE BEFORE NEXT CDFNT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION ON TUE/WED. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FOR
THU/FRI BUT HELD OFF ON ADDING POPS UNTIL PERIODICITY OF SHORTWAVE
PASSAGES IN THIS FLOW REGIME BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED.

KANOFSKY

&&

.AVIATION...
/1242 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
SHRA THIS MORNING HAVE DIMINISHED AND ASSOC CLOUD COVER MOVING EAST
OF THE STL METRO SITES. EXPECT DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH TO SWLY WINDS OF 8-12 KTS. EXPECT ISOLD
SHRA/TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MO THIS AFTERNOON. DON/T
EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE TO BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN VCSH AND
A CB GROUP AT KCOU. OTHER ISOLD SHRA/TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SE IA
AND MOVE SE INTO THE KUIN VCTY. AGAIN DON/T EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE
MUCH AND FEEL VCSH AND A CB GROUP COVER THE CHANCES...FOR NOW.
EXPECT FOG TO REDEVELOP OVER KSUS AFTER MIDNIGHT... WHICH SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. AREA REMAINS IN SLYSWLY FLOW IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT TROUGH DUE IN FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

MILLER

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
316 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-241145-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
316 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

KANOFSKY