Hail in Maryland, April 20, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
326 PM EDT MON APR 20 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER WILL ARRIVE MID-WEEK BEHIND A COLD FRONT
BEFORE A STRONG TEMPERATURE RECOVERY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
OCCLUDED LOW NOW OVER LWR MI AT SFC. OCCLUSION EXTENDS SE INTO WV
WITH AN COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM THERE TO THE FL PANHANDLE. A BULGING
WARM FRONT /THE KEY TO INSTABILITY FOR THE CWA/ EXTENDS ACROSS VA.
THIS WARM FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH ACROSS VA WITH MID 60S
TO LOW 70S NOW /AT 18Z/ ALONG A LINE FROM KFYJ KRIC KFVX. CLOUDS
BREAK SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHRA /WITH ISO LTG/. THE
BULGE IS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE WITH KLYH SOCKED IN WITH NLY FLOW AT
60F. FURTHER FRONTAL BULGING...ESSENTIALLY CREATING AN EMBEDDED SFC
MESOLOW...SHOULD CROSS SOUTHERN MD AND REACH AS FAR NORTH AS DCA AND
FAR WEST AS KCJR BY 21Z...BRINGING BROKEN SKIES AND UPPER 60S TEMPS.

EXPECT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS THE
THE SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH CONVECTIVE STORMS
POTENTIALLY REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 02Z FOR SOUTHERN MD AND CENTRAL/ERN VA.

THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA...REACHING THE BAY BY 06Z. WITH
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT FOG TO SETUP ACROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT...INCLUDED PATCHY AT THIS TIME AS MIXING AND CLOUD COVER
SHOULD KEEP IT FROM BEING DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE UPR LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AMPLIFIES INTO A TROUGH OVER THE
MIDWEST WITH A SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM...AND ACROSS THE
CWA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INCLUDED THUNDER IN THE GRIDS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THOUGH THINK THE CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY LINEAR.

MORNING LOW CLOUDS GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS /DENSER
ACROSS WRN SLOPES/ WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW. TEMPERATURES REBOUND
TOWARDS 70F /PARTICULARLY S AND E/ BEFORE AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DP UPR TROF RMNS OVER ERN CONUS THRU WED. SVRL VORT LOBES MOVE
AROUND SRN PERIPHERY OF UPR TROF...WITH VORT MAX TUE NGT DRIVING A
CDFNT THRU FCST AREA. WILL RETAIN POPS TUE NGT AND WED...WITH PCPN
BCMG MORE CONFINED TO UPSLP-FAVORED AREAS OF ALLEGHENY FRONT WITH
TIME. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW TUE NGT
AND WED NGT ON WEST-FACING SLOPES.

DRY THU AS MSTR WILL BE DISPLACED BY BUILDING SFC HIPRES. RECOVERY
XPCD FRI AS UPR RDG ASSERTS ITSELF. PASSAGE OF SUBTLE SHRTWV TROF
CONTS TO BE SHOWN IN MODELS FOR FRI. HAVE RETAINED SLGT CHC SHRA
IN GRIDS.

MAXIMA APRCHG 80 FOR THE WKEND AS SWLY FLOW ALOFT FOSTERS STG SLY
WINDS AND INCRG MSTR.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ELY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS NEAR THE BAY GUSTING
TO AROUND 20 KT. WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH WITH WINDS
VEERING TO SELY.

CONVECTIVE STORM DEVELOPMENT INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
STRONGEST STORMS ACROSS VA...THOUGH LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
DC AREA AND UP AND NEAR THE BAY.

COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM THE W/SW FROM 03Z TO 09Z WITH VSBYS
LOWERING AFTER STORMS. EXPECT IFR CIGS TO RETURN /MAINTAIN IFR
ACROSS NORTH OF DC AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE/.

SCT SHRA TUE EVE MAY LOCALLY REDUCE VSBYS AND CIGS. CHC OF PCPN
WILL DECR ACRS TERMINALS THRU WED AS STG WLY WINDS ARRIVE WITH
CDFNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA OUT FOR WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR ELY WINDS BECOMING SLY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE
STORMS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SLY WATERS WITH A TORNADO WATCH SOUTH
OF NORTH BEACH AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC BELOW INDIAN HEAD.

WINDS EASE LATE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME SWLY AROUND SUNRISE. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A
SECONDARY DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE MID ATLANTIC. STORMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE.

SMALL CRAFT ADZY CONDITIONS PSBL AGAIN WED AFTN AND EVE AS CDFNT
ARRIVES WITH GUSTY WLY WINDS.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ530>537.

&&

BAJ/KRAMAR

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