Lightning Strike in Louisiana, August 27, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
351 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW UPPER LEVEL
CUT-OFF LOW SPINNING OVER SE LA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS
OVERSPREADING THE SERN US WHILE A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES SOUTH
OVER TX AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. AT THE SFC...WEAK SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IS RIDGING SW ACRS MS AND LA INTO SE TX...WHILE NW OF
THE REGION A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A LOW CENTERED OVER NRN MO SW
OVER OK INTO NW TX. TEMPERATURES AT 19Z WERE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S ACRS SW LA AND SE TX. KLCH 88D MUCH LESS ACTIVE THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST ACRS CNTRL LA AND SE TX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE KICKED OUT TO
THE NE BY AN UPSTREAM TROUGH DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS.
FOR TONIGHT...MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE OVER
ERN TX. THIS ENERGY ALONG WITH PWS INCREASING TO NEAR 2 INCHES
SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE
OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE TX...THEN SPREADING EAST AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP TO NUDGE THE COOL FRONT CLOSER TO
THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE
SLOW-MOVING FRONT AND LINGERING ENERGY ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACRS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS VERY SLOWLY SE THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH WEEKEND...REACHING THE COAST DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND
FINALLY EXITING THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LINGER INTO SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

DRIER AIR WILL FILTER ACRS THE AREA MONDAY AS A RATHER STRONG
1024MB HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE MS/OHIO VALLEYS. THIS HIGH
IS PROGGED TO RIDGE SOUTH TOWARD THE NWRN GULF THROUGH
MIDWEEK....MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER AND LOWER HUMIDITIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM IN THE AFTNS WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS...HOWEVER...WILL BE
A BIT COOLER WITH LOWS APPROACHING THE LOWER 60S ACRS PORTIONS OF
CNTRL LA BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW. PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  88  72  91 /  30  40  30  40
KBPT  74  90  72  91 /  30  40  30  40
KAEX  70  89  69  90 /  30  50  30  50
KLFT  71  88  73  89 /  20  20  30  50

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
455 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
TXZ180>182-201-215-216-281000-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
455 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.