Flood and Hail in Kansas, June 11 to 12, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
346 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS TONIGHT.

UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM 12Z SHOWED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. AN 80 KNOT JET AT 250 MB WAS OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THESE
FEATURES HEADING TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE DAY GOES
ON. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS WORKING EAST
THROUGH THE COLORADO MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
AND RADAR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
FROM NORTHEAST OF DENVER TO NEAR PUEBLO.

THERE WERE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE NAM/GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING
THE EVOLUTION OF TONIGHTS THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS SHOWS THE BULK OF
THE QPF STAYING UP OVER NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS TONIGHT.
THERE IS A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING OVER WYOMING WHICH WILL
LIKELY FOLLOW THE GFS QPF FORECAST. THE NAM SHOWS AN MCS TRACKING
FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE OUT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT.
MSAS SHOWING A LOW LEVEL THETA-E AXIS FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO. THINK THAT AS THE NORTHEAST COLORADO CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND STARTS MOVING OUT...IT WILL FOLLOW THIS
AXIS. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 2/3DS OF THE CWA WITH THAT IN MIND.

THE NAM HAS THE PRECIP MOVING THROUGH OUR EASTERN CWA BY 12Z FRIDAY.
THIS MAY BE A LITTLE SLOW GIVEN THE CURRENT SETUP SO WILL HAVE POPS
DIMINISHING FAIRLY QUICKLY BY MORNING.

ON FRIDAY MID LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AS THE CURRENT WAVE MOVES OUT AND ANOTHER STRONG WAVE
DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE REGION AND AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
COMPONENT. THINK THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MOVING OUT OVERNIGHT. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS AND POPS WILL BE MORE BROADBRUSED AND LOWER. WILL CONTINUE
THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE MODELS SHOW
SOME PRECIP LINGERING AROUND PAST 12Z.

DAYS 3-7...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN CONUS
TO BEGIN THE PERIOD 00Z SUNDAY. THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOWS VERY
LITTLE MOVEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, THIS
WILL INFLUENCE A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS THAT
WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
SHOW A SERIES OF S/WAVES AT H5 CYCLING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
WESTERN KANSAS AS A DRYLINE CONTINUES TO OSCILLATE BACK AND FORTH
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. AS
A RESULT, THIS WILL BRING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN PRECIP CHANCES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IN THE WEST AMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT ALLOWING
RIDGING ALOFT TO EDGE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS EACH DAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK IN REGARDS TO THE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED NATURE OF ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB BUT REMAIN JUST BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. FOR SUNDAY, A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP JUST TO OUR SOUTHWEST WITH AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EAST GENERALLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL INFLUENCE AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS SUNDAY WHICH WILL KEEP COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW TEMPERATURES AT H85 RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS(C) ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S(C) IN OUR
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S(F) SUNDAY WITH
LOWER 90S(F) POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
AMPLIFIES ALLOWING AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO EDGE NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. PLAN TO DROP HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES OR SO ACROSS THE
NORTH SUNDAY AS A RESULT OF A MORE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. WILL MAKE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS ELSEWHERE.

&&

AVIATION...

A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO DOWN INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. ANY
DEVELOPING STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE PERIOD. AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KANSAS.
MAY SEE LINGERING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING, THEN AREAS OF REDEVELOPING MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  83  60  82 /  60  40  20  20
GCK  55  82  58  81 /  60  30  30  20
EHA  56  83  59  84 /  30  10  20  20
LBL  58  84  61  84 /  40  20  20  20
HYS  58  78  58  79 /  70  50  30  20
P28  63  83  64  85 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN02/32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
415 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-120915-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
415 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2009 /315 AM MDT THU JUN 11 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COLORADO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
MOIST UPSLOPE SURFACE FLOW AND INSTABILITY CONTINUE. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIODS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

WRIGHT