Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, July 12 to 13, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
200 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.

WV IMAGERY AND 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
AN +80KT UPPER LEVEL JET IS CLIMBING NORTHEAST OUT OF A TROUGH AXIS
JUST OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND MOVING UP INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA. A POOL OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH
DEWPOINTS AT H85 AROUND 12C TO 17C. A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN KANSAS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.

SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST BEGINS TO MOVE ASHORE AND INTO THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ON INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY HELPING TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN RIDGING
ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INFLUENCING MORE OF A WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL S/WAVE
EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SKIRTING ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH MONDAY. AS A RESULT, THERES AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOST NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT POPS THERE.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE MILD SIDE TONIGHT. THE NAM,
GFS, AND UKMET ALL SHOW TEMPERATURES AT H85 RANGING FROM AROUND
23C ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO NEAR 27C ALONG THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 70S(F) WITH A FEW
UPPER 60S(F) POSSIBLE WEST. IT WILL REMAIN HOT AND SUNNY MONDAY AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS PICK BACK UP ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES AT
H85 WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 20S(C) ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES
TO NEAR 33C ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. EXPECT HIGHS UP NEAR 100F
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH UPPER 90S(F) POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES FOR BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY RESPECTIVELY. PLAN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO TEMPERATURES.

DAYS 3-7...

LAST NIGHTS ECMWF AND THE 12Z GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND A
QUICK LOOK AT THE LOW RES ECMWF OUT THROUGH 48 HOURS SHOWS THAT THE
12Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS RUNS.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COOL
FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE NIGHT.  THE
GOING FORECAST HAS CHANCE POPS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE. THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDING OVER THE WESTERN STATES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT
PUSHES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND OR JUST SOUTH OF
WESTERN KANSAS FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GIVE US
OPPORTUNITIES FOR EVENING AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES
MOVING OFF OF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. CURRENTLY WE HAVE CHANCE OR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED
MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP SOMEWHAT COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AROUND ESPECIALLY IF WE
HAVE ANY THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES MOVING THROUGH. IN COLLABORATION
WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE LOWERED DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY BY SOME FIVE TO SEVEN DEGREES.  THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
NEXT WEEKEND SO HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES BACK UP SOME FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD.

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BACKDOOR THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE COULD BE A FEW CBS MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER
THIS EVENING IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF
CENTRAL COLORADO HOLD TOGETHER AFTER SUNSET. EASTERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PUSH HIGHER DEWPOINTS WESTWARD AGAIN TONIGHT.  THIS
COULD RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  70 100  70 102 /  10   0   0   0
GCK  68 100  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
EHA  68 100  70 100 /  10   0   0   0
LBL  70 100  70 102 /  10   0   0   0
HYS  68  98  70 100 /  20   0   0   0
P28  72 103  75 103 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ081-088>090.

&&

FN32/02/02

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1029 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

KSZ030-031-140330-
TREGO-ELLIS-
1029 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 1 AM
AS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS MOVES EAST FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS OF 40 TO 60MPH
AND PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT, FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME,
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE, BUT IT IS LIKELY ONE OR MORE OF THESE ROUNDS OF STORMS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AROUND ELLIS AND HAYS UNTIL
1 AM.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

KSZ043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-140330-
SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-PAWNEE-
STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PRATT-
MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1029 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2009 /929 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT, FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME,
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF ANY OF THESE STORMS WILL BE
SEVERE, BUT IT IS LIKELY ONE OR MORE OF THESE ROUNDS OF STORMS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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