Flash Flood and Hail in Kansas, August 2, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
329 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2009

.DISCUSSION...
308 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2009

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AND HEAT TOMORROW. LONGER TERM CONCERNS ARE POSSIBILITY
OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY FROM THE MIDDLE THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

EXPECT A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GOOD HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH
MIGRATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

NEAR SURFACE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO THE LOW TRIPLE
DIGITS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY.

THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME DIFFERENCES ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE PLACEMENT OF POPS AND THE AMOUNT OF COOL-DOWN
FOLLOWING A COLDFRONT ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON TUESDAY. THE NAM HAS THIS FEATURE MORE SHARPLY DEFINED
AND FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE GFS. FEEL THE LIKELY SOLUTION IS
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE TWO...SO HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE ON
TEMPERATURES AND AS A RESULT HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
THE BOUNDARY RETURNING NORTHWARD AND AIDING IN THE PRODUCTION OF
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

EXPECT SOME KIND OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MAINLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT AND THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND IS SHUNTED
EASTWARD AS THE LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST U.S. AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE.

LOCKHART
&&

.AVIATION...
1121 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2009

FOR THE 18Z TAF CYCLE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN SUBTLE WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST AT KGLD IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN AT KMCK LATE AFTERNOON.

024
&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
313 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2009

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031215-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
313 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2009 /413 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
OBERLIN TO TRIBUNE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

LOW PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. LATE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG AND
EAST FROM TRIBUNE TO OBERLIN.

BULLER